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Old 02-10-2020, 09:30 AM   #41
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I am 55 and just joined the ER ranks.

My planning never considered social security.

When the FA runs his model, he says he always uses 50% payout.

(I'm more comfortable tracking my future to the ebbs and flows of the market instead of relying on a government handout....if the government decides to grant me a monthly check, that will be lagniappe)

This topic might also make a great poll.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:41 AM   #42
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57 and yes, SS is in my plan. I am not succumbing to the mas hysteria. If SS goes away, we have WAY bigger problems.... Maybe it will be because of the Zombie Virus.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:12 AM   #43
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My guess is that SS is safe. The country is aging. Over 55’s are one of the most dependable voting blocks.

Savvy politicians are very much aware off this. They will not do anything that would put this block of support at risk. After all...it is all about getting elected, taking care of those who helped you. And getting re-elected. Everything else comes far down the list.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:25 AM   #44
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I'm 53 and I fully expect the FRA age to be raised to 69 or 70 for my age cohort, with earliest age to take SS to go up to 64.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:00 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrLoco View Post
Social Security will "be there" for the next 50 years.
It would be "political suicide" of any politician suggesting SS will "STOP" abruptly.

Now, there will be gradual changes, some probably to begin within the next 5 years, to keep SS viable in the long term. This is inevitable.

I believe these changes will include the following:

1) Increase the age at which one can BEGIN to collect SS. Increase the age from 62 to 62.5 ; 63 ; 63.5 etc. until finally , perhaps 25 years from now, you CANNOT BEGIN to collect SS until age 65. This will force people to work until at least age 65. Less early retirement.

2) Gradual increases in SS payroll taxes. Self explanatory. Will need to be done.

3) Slowly decrease benefits over time.

A combination of the above three actions, although not popular, if done gradually, could be SOLD by the politicians as "This is what we GOTTA do."

As an aside MEDICARE is a much more immediate concern.
+1

I believe the most palatable option for politicians will be to raise the FRA to something above 67 for those born after 1962 (https://www.ssa.gov/planners/survivo...rchartred.html) - gradually reaching age 70, combined with an elimination of the max earnings cap, along with making all benefits taxable as regular income. I also believe they will raise the “early claim” age gradually from 62 to 65, and steepen the fall-off amounts (early claimers will get a lower percentage), and that they will eliminate delayed credits.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:12 AM   #46
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I'm counting on Social Security but with a big pad in our calculations to allow for future cuts. Social Security has been either cut or proposed to be cut in the past in sneaky ways - higher taxes, raising the minimum ages, fiddling with COLA adjustments, etc. Plus I think people with other assets / income like many on this board might be more vulnerable to future income or asset testing.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:15 AM   #47
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I think they will find a way to make it work, one way or the other. Political suicide to cut Social Security.
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Old 02-10-2020, 11:34 AM   #48
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At 53, I expect SS to be there mostly, if not fully intact. However, I consider FI conservatively without SS. I make two runs through the calculators: First, without SS to get a sense of worst case. Second, with SS to get an estimate of maximum spending allowed. Anywhere in between those two numbers seems like reasonable spending to me. Doh! I've probably worked too long.
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Old 02-10-2020, 02:03 PM   #49
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My perspective is that the older generation feel much more entitled to social security. If you as anyone 50 or younger, they all give an answer like 0-75% of projected values. I believe this will become self fulfilling as a vote now to reduce benefits would get people voted out of office. However a vote in 15-20 years will be met with ‘just like I expected’ type response.

Benefits have/will continue to slowly be eroded for future generations with acceptable reasoning (‘well people live longer so it’s fine they increased the retirement age’) I fear it will only get worse.

I think this forum is more poised to benefit financially from benefit cuts (higher income, knowledgeable on investments) and how this impacts society as a whole is a political belief question.
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Old 02-10-2020, 02:35 PM   #50
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58 yo here... Retired 4 years. My plan works without it... but it's more travel if it's there.

I do plan on DH (continuing) to receive SS... since it's part of our monthly income flow.

For the poster who mentioned young children... this was our case. If a parent is collecting SS and has minor children, the children get a dependent benefit till they are 18. This was a nice surprise I learned about here on er.org. It factored into DH taking SS at 62. We lose this benefit this next school year when younger son graduates HS (he turn 18 mid school year so the benefit continues till he graduates.) This wasn't part of our decision - but it's been nice.
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Old 02-10-2020, 03:36 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
I get the impression that those that do not plan on SS being there wear that as a badge of honor. I'd have to work another 5 years to retire without needing SS. That seems silly. Work 5 more years in case SS isn't there in 15 years? No thanks. I am planning on it, counting on it and retiring in 2 years expecting it to be there.

For those that don't need it, did you ever think about retiring a LOT earlier by including it?
speaking for us, 'need' does not mean 'must have'. we both have traditional defined benefit pensions that provide ~ 80% of our annual income. our SS payments provide the other 20% and allows our nest egg to remain untouched. we're still living well beneath our means with a positive cash flow each month. we prefer to not touch the nest egg but RMD's start next year. that's a good problem to have compared to the alternative.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:32 PM   #52
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I am 56. I think there is a high probability of adjustments around the margins in inputs and outputs for SS to keep it going along for quite some time.

Personally I have always taken the planning approach of having a “zero” in the SS column so anything received will be a bonus. Plus since I worked outside of the USA for decades my payout is not that much, but at least I have enough credits to qualify for Medicare which is going to be much more a material issue if that gets messed with by Uncle Sam.
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:16 PM   #53
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At 54, I will most likely wait until 62 to FIRE, but may not take SS until later (undecided when). I should have close to 1M, and a nice 30 year pension.

Yes, I am counting on SS to make my life easier when the time comes.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:58 AM   #54
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I'm 53 and optimistic that it'll still be around. i know it's against all the rules, but I'm planning to take it at 62. My mom received her 1 and only check when she turned 62... and passed away. Sadly, I'm not 100% sure that I'm healthier that she was (something I'm working on changing).
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:58 AM   #55
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I turned 56 a few months ago, and have been retired for 9 years now. I don't need SS to make it, but it will be a welcome addition when it comes along, however much it happens to be.
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Old 02-11-2020, 08:02 AM   #56
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I have not yet hit 50, but I consider SS as two of the cashflow buckets that will come our way. I have 5 other passive income streams so I will not rely on it, but if it does come, great. I think the worst case scenario is that SS will be cut, not completely removed.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:27 AM   #57
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I have SS figured in for future income. I will need the money to cover expenses. My logic is that it is better to draw SS at 62 and pay tax on 85% of it versus use my investments and and pay taxes on 100% percent of it. If there is a SS haircut, it just means that more will come from investments. Even doing conversions from my 401k to a roth to the top of the 12% bracket (about 25k a year), I will still have RMDs at 72 (55 now).
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:01 AM   #58
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I expect SS to get reduced for me (53). I hope it won't be a large reduction because many are dependent on it.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:05 AM   #59
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I expect SS to be reduced for me, too (51). Not FIRE'd yet...I think I'm in the OMY syndrome since I can't really get my head around retiring at 51. I run Firecalc and other calculators with and without SS and all signs seem to point that I'll be fine.
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Old 02-11-2020, 11:22 AM   #60
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I am in late forties and I expect to receive at least 75%. I run fireflcalc with and without SS and results are almost the same since I run simulations for perpetual retirement i.e. balance never dropping below starting balance. I have a special need child so I have to plan for a perpetual retirement.

Little known fact about SS benefits: Disabled children can receive SS benefit on parents income records. So our lifetime family benefit can be maximized if we claim at 62!
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