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Old 02-11-2020, 11:25 AM   #61
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I’m 55 and FIRE’d in 2018. Changes will probably be made as described earlier increasing FRA, age for early filing and increasing wage threshold, but I believe they will be applied to those under 50. Too close to retirement age for those over 50 to adjust to changes.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:22 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Steeler75 View Post
I’m 55 and FIRE’d in 2018. Changes will probably be made as described earlier increasing FRA, age for early filing and increasing wage threshold, but I believe they will be applied to those under 50. Too close to retirement age for those over 50 to adjust to changes.
Agree that should be the case. If you had asked me when I was in my 20s/30s, I would have said it wouldn’t be there. Now at almost 50 I’m including it, with a bit of discount. I can understand being conservative and discounting it, but I’m surprised at how many are not including anything. As another poster pointed out, that’s a lot of extra saving to do—easily 1mm extra. I wonder if we’d see the same answers if recent returns weren’t so strong.

I too am far more concerned about Medicare funding.
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Old 02-12-2020, 07:35 AM   #63
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Yes SS is in my plan.

There would be blood in the streets if the gov cut or tampered with promised payments to retirees. Easier to just print the cash and let the economy take a hit in the form of inflation. Or slowly "raise the bar" to collect more from high wage earners and print less.
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:56 AM   #64
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Who's going to take care mom and dad?Not only would us Geezers revolt, so would our kids.
Any one telling you SS will not be there is using fear to sell you something. Either a financial product or a political/economic policy change.
Not to say it won't be fiddled with. It's not a divine policy. Worst case I foresee is a 25% cut for the upper end recipients. But I doubt even that much.
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Old 02-12-2020, 09:05 AM   #65
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Seems to me a FICA rate hike is in order. The Base wage is certainly going up fast.

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Old 02-12-2020, 09:35 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by DawgMan View Post
So, this sort of prompts a number of questions for people roughly my age and younger...

- Should we expect SS to be there in full for our life time? Will the politics be strong enough to effect SS for years to come?
- Should we take the current solvency at face value? If so, what does that do to your timing/plans to start taking SS?
- If, like me, you did not factor SS in your modeling... should you? And if you do, how will you/should you adjust your spending up until you start taking withdrawals?

There are worst plans in the world... just plan on SS as found money. But, at the same time, if you believe it will be there, you effectively could make an argument to "blow the dough" a little more aggressively up until then.

What say you?
Posted without reading other responses.

I am 50 and FIREd about three years.

1. I expect it to be there my entire lifetime, although I expect there to be changes as we approach the solvency issues. I believe our elected officials will be sufficiently motivated to come up with some sort of compromise.

2. In my planning, I don't need it. But I plan on 60% of it. It does not affect my plans to take it at 70. I do think that people on SS already will be affected less by any cuts they might make, but (a) I doubt they will make any cuts; tax increases are historically more common, and (b) I think any change will be gradual and grandfather anyone close to SS, so by they time that happens I think I will be inside the grandfather window.

3. I should "blow more dough" because even 60% of my SS covers my current spending, and I still have my portfolio to spend. But I don't. Not sure if/when I will start spending more. One thing that I do is include the NPV of my future SS in my current FIRE stash, and I would fee comfortable spending 4% of that now, so in essence that does accomplish some of that task of blowing more now in anticipation of getting SS. But I'm only spending at 0.41%. So I'm not doing very well at that.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:35 PM   #67
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First off, Social Security was NEVER meant to be the only resource in retirement.

I think it is up to everyone to set up their finances so anything from Social Security is fun money. My SS, when I claim at 70 or when my ex-husband dies, will be used to pay the tax bill each year and one really nice trip.

If you are married and have a spouse who does not have as much SS eligibility on their own work record, It is a LOT better for them if you wait as long as possible to claim. So after you die, thy will have more money for life.

We have a FB group called "Social Security Intelligence" with a CFP as the owner and several CFPs (plus me) as the Moderators. The subject of when to claim, the benefits and pitfalls, are some of the items discussed.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:36 PM   #68
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I am 50'ish and do not consider SS at all. If it happens will be bonus spending money. I feel fortunate to be in this position.
Good point...if you don't HAVE to consider it in order to hit your targets then it's a bit easier to voice your pessimism as it makes no difference to you. If you will need it then it behooves you (mentally) to figure it into your calculations else you might never get to retire. Of course you can always hedge your bets and save as much as possible, just in case and it will only serve to further raise your standard of living if SS survives relatively intact.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:42 PM   #69
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Did not factor it in while working or when I retired. To play it safe.
But am now. 58 retired at 51. I paid a ton into it. Would like to at least break even. Is that asking too much?

They say inflation has been low. But all my utilities have doubled in the past 7 1/2 yrs.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:54 PM   #70
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I am 50 and FIREd. I expect to receive some benefits (since I paid into the program) but I don't have any SS baked into my plans.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:06 PM   #71
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58, retired and yes DW and I are both expecting it. She’s 62 and just yesterday went to soc ser office and filed.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:26 PM   #72
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68 and SS worked out well for me. However, I am concerned about people who are not so lucky. I always considered SS as a government pyramid game. There may be no choice except to raise taxes to meet the shortfall.


When socialists want "Medicare for All" and point to socialist European countries as their model of success, they will never tell you that their taxes are the highest in Europe. We need to raise taxes to meet the SS shortfall but then stop.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:34 PM   #73
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Agree[MOD EDIT]. Have put 100's of thousands into it.
And do expect something back in return.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:34 PM   #74
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68 and SS worked out well for me. However, I am concerned about people who are not so lucky. I always considered SS as a government pyramid game. There may be no choice except to raise taxes to meet the shortfall.


When socialists want "Medicare for All" and point to socialist European countries as their model of success, they will never tell you that their taxes are the highest in Europe. We need to raise taxes to meet the SS shortfall but then stop.
Ah but which taxes?
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:46 PM   #75
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Ah but which taxes?
a
All of them. As they get disguised.
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:35 PM   #76
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Late 40’s. Social security is not counted at all in my planning or projections.
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:25 PM   #77
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I am 52, and plan to retire in 3-5 years. Since DH and I will plan to live on investment income/savings until we both receive pensions and can withdraw money from 401K/457 at age 60, we have always run our calculations without including SS. We expect some SS income when we file at FRA or at age 70 (preferred), but it will likely be more of longevity insurance. This will definitely be helpful for my DH, who has a number of relatives who have lived to be >100 years old (up to 113!). Even with probable up to 25% decrease in benefits or with earnings tests, we are likely to get out more than we have "invested" in Social Security.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:20 AM   #78
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Is there some magical tea leaves I could read that would actually tell me what percentage of my expected SS benefits I’ll actually receive? If so I may actually become a tea drinker.
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:30 AM   #79
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Well not all of us don't include SS in our planning. IMO, that is way too conservative and we would have never retired.
My DGF is already receiving SSDI, so that comes into play too of course.
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Old 02-15-2020, 06:25 AM   #80
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I am 56 and have been living just fine off my taxable investments for the last 11 years. I consider SS to be one of my 3 "reinforcements," with unfettered access to my tIRA and my frozen company pension the other 2, available at various times starting at age 59.5.


If somehow SS isn't there or gets reduced by the time I am old enough to be at FRA (age 67), I will still have the other 2 reinforcements ready to supplement my already good financial situation.
Why bond funds? you have to worry about everyone else selling . buy individual bonds and just worry about your self
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