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Millennials will prioritize "necessity spending"
Old 10-14-2019, 05:23 PM   #1
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Millennials will prioritize "necessity spending"

Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mill...mead-says.html

Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:30 PM   #2
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Those same cohorts (Millennials and X'ers) will not only be making the long term care decisions for many Boomers, but also providing their hands-on care, as well.
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:32 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by SunBlueSky View Post
...
"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.
A talking head knows more than the actuaries at SSA. Who knew...
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Old 10-14-2019, 05:53 PM   #4
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As a Millennial looking for a house and a new car, 4-6% and rising interest rates hardly feel like anything is being given away for free!

I also don't see many of my peers interested in housing over renting when it tends to free up so much more money and time away from maintenance and upkeep. Could be I keep finding the odd pockets of people though and the larger averages say something else.
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Old 10-14-2019, 06:10 PM   #5
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The spending will not happen soon enough to save SS unto itself.
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Old 10-14-2019, 06:32 PM   #6
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I read the article but it didn't suggest any stocks to take advantage of this "megatrend". I'm kind of doubtful this will have big effects. Home Depot anyone?
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Old 10-14-2019, 06:51 PM   #7
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Anybody know what Harry Dent says about this? This sounds like Dentism
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Old 10-14-2019, 07:44 PM   #8
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“In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics,”

The future's so bright I have to wear shades.

I'm no longer a payer, but I'm not a taker-outer quite yet. I guess I'm a delayer for now and I like to think of myself as an optimizer.
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Old 10-14-2019, 08:44 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by SunBlueSky View Post
Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mill...mead-says.html

Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.
I'm 38. I've owned 4 homes. I bought my first house before I was married and before I ever owned a credit card. I actually didn't buy a "new" car until I knew DW was pregnant. Oh, I've never owned an AAPL product, I don't drink (and stopped drinking WELL before the whole craft beer craze). I must be doing it wrong?

I thought Millenials and X'ers were "not having kids", "not moving out of their parents basements" "not getting their license" etc. etc.

I hear another aspect of all of this is the largest transfer of wealth in american history is currently occurring. Soo, maybe we won't need as much of the Social Security? Who knows.
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Old 10-14-2019, 08:52 PM   #10
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I read the article but it didn't suggest any stocks to take advantage of this "megatrend". I'm kind of doubtful this will have big effects. Home Depot anyone?


Short Chipotle.
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Old 10-14-2019, 08:57 PM   #11
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I'm more worried about our (DW and I) future than I am about 89 million younger folks. Good luck to them!

We have some of that age group in our family (mine and the extended one) and they are having babies, buying houses and diving nice cars.

I don't know of anyone in that age group living in a parent's basement in order to lower their carbon footprint (although I have a 70 year old SIL who is bragging about lowering hers )
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:11 PM   #12
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I'm 38. I've owned 4 homes. I bought my first house before I was married and before I ever owned a credit card. I actually didn't buy a "new" car until I knew DW was pregnant. Oh, I've never owned an AAPL product, I don't drink (and stopped drinking WELL before the whole craft beer craze). I must be doing it wrong?

I thought Millenials and X'ers were "not having kids", "not moving out of their parents basements" "not getting their license" etc. etc.
Well you are special.

Either that or not all Millennials are actually the same.
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:30 PM   #13
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I think it's good news. They may be "settling down" later in life but hey that's what we all do.

I'm a big fan of Home Depot -
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:54 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SunBlueSky View Post
Found a good news article to share about the future spending of the Millennial generation (aged 21-38 years old). Apparently, this group's size may overtake the Boomer generation in 2019, and in the next decade they will change their spending toward big-ticket items (homes and cars) and away from discretionary items (Apple/craft beer/Chipotle burritos). The Millennial and Generation X groups earnings will also help sustain the social security system, according to this.

Here is the link: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/mill...mead-says.html
From above article:

Quote:
He said this will mean young adults will soon start to move away from buying “Apple devices, craft beer and Chipotle burritos” and instead spend their savings on big-ticket items such as houses and cars.
My son, daughter, and son-in-law do not own any Apple devices (they use PCs and Android phones), drink whisky and not beer, and are not fans of Chipotle. They have owned their homes for a while now.

Quote:
Quotes from Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management:
"Just do the math, there's 89 million millennials in a 330 million population of the United States of America. And then the group behind them — this is crazy — is just as big."

"In 20 years, there is going to be way more payers into the social security system and there is going to be way fewer taker-outers — and that problem will solve itself through demographics," Smead said.
It's good that my children's SS will be taken care of, although by that time, I am either dead or senile, and would not know.
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Old 10-14-2019, 11:08 PM   #15
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As a former Android user I think iPhones a great product right now. No sense in becoming too attached to a particular brand though.
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Old 10-15-2019, 05:51 AM   #16
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I suspect the SS actuaries have a better handle on the effect of demographics than this guy. As to houses, he could be right. Reportedly, a lot of millennials put off marriage and kids longer than previous generation and are overdue. Anecdotally, my millenial daughter and many of her friends are jumping into both marriage and houses now and many are pregnant. In DC bidding wars are driving house prices thru the roof as the kids all seem to be frantic to get on board now.
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Old 10-15-2019, 06:14 AM   #17
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A talking head knows more than the actuaries at SSA. Who knew...
Exactly what I was thinking.
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Old 10-15-2019, 07:26 AM   #18
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I continue to see millenials sitting in their cars at parks glued to their phones. Sometimes 2, 3, 4 people in the same car - not sure but not saying a word to each other. As the seasons are changing, flowers are blooming and squirrels gathering nuts, these people are "making memories" by looking at snarky cynical postings on social media and wishing they had the life of an "influencer".

So even with mortgage rates at low historical rates, that cohort will be happy (and fulfilled) with the AAPL device purchased from communist manufacturers. I see a trend on social media of that group "waiting for all the boomers to die" so they can finally live - what a joke. I think the McMansion of their generation will be a 900 sq foot apartment with a lease and tons of other monthly blood letting charges for their conveniences such as food delivery, chauffeur services, and avocado toast. So NO I don't see them giving up all their primping for mortgage.
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Old 10-15-2019, 07:37 AM   #19
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I continue to see millenials sitting in their cars at parks glued to their phones. Sometimes 2, 3, 4 people in the same car - not sure but not saying a word to each other. As the seasons are changing, flowers are blooming and squirrels gathering nuts, these people are "making memories" by looking at snarky cynical postings on social media and wishing they had the life of an "influencer".

So even with mortgage rates at low historical rates, that cohort will be happy (and fulfilled) with the AAPL device purchased from communist manufacturers. I see a trend on social media of that group "waiting for all the boomers to die" so they can finally live - what a joke. I think the McMansion of their generation will be a 900 sq foot apartment with a lease and tons of other monthly blood letting charges for their conveniences such as food delivery, chauffeur services, and avocado toast. So NO I don't see them giving up all their primping for mortgage.
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Old 10-15-2019, 09:31 AM   #20
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I just don’t see the many folks in my life prioritizing much of anything. It’s all “and”, seldom “or”, regardless of age.

Regardless 20 something young adults, they don’t make any more, inflation adjusted, than DW and I did at that age, but they have greater expectations of a higher material living standard.
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