pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
All true. We're incorrigible. If I were you I would give up on enlightening us and move on to sites where you can be more influential.
Minimum rate of return in retirement
- Thread starter Samsung4321
- Start date
All true. We're incorrigible. If I were you I would give up on enlightening us and move on to sites where you can be more influential.
Samsung4321
Recycles dryer sheets
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Ta, that seems good advice. Those who know know. Those who could have learned have. Those who could not will not.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Don't forget the move on part.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
You forgot to mention pivot tables.
brett
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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All I know is that I am negative on the 90K sitting in our HISA that I just drew down from our investment account.
Negative, pre tax, by about 3-4 points, perhaps a little more because of inflation.
Just happy that I did not pull any more down.
Negative, pre tax, by about 3-4 points, perhaps a little more because of inflation.
Just happy that I did not pull any more down.
corn18
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We should stop feeding the troll...
WWDog
Recycles dryer sheets
Your equation does not make sense. I have a BS and ms in math. What are all the comas for? No need to explain since I'm moving on.
Live Large
Recycles dryer sheets
The commas are just to separate different input parameters in Excel's function called RATE.
If OP had titled the thread "Spreadsheet Financial Functions and How to Use Them" and started with an introduction like:
"Hi, I'm new to this forum so don't know if this would be useful to folks here, but I work a lot with Excel and specifically its financial functions. I've noticed that a lot of my peers either don't know about these or use them wrong, so thought I would share a few tips about what functions are available and the way to use them."
And then OP could share the mini tutorial and folks would know what they were getting. Had that happened, then we might have been able to have a technical discussion about certain spreadsheet functions for those interested, instead of having to read page after page of cryptic comments just to figure out that's all it was.
Personally I don't thinks it's healthy for a board to discourage participation of potential contributors and OP is clearly knowledgeable about Excel and can be a resource to the group, so I think the whole interaction was unfortunate.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I agree on the last part but the OP's arrogance was the principal cause of the tepid reception that s/he received.
corn18
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Die With Zero / Die Broke read after the Millionaire Next door - ROI 4% won’t get to zero so Blow the Dough - I say - cash left will be spent- Die w/Zero!
My favorite chart ever. We spend a lot of time grousing about the little orange slice. @RobbieB has it right.
I don't want to run out of money either and think we need to be careful about the math behind these analyses. When we use historical data in statistics, everyone recognizes that it doesn't predict the future, but I wonder if people some other issues.
For instance, it overemphasizes some years and underemphasizes others. Each starting year in the data gets one trace, but statistically that's not fair, the end points are under-represented. The first year of data only occurs in one trace, the second year can appear as year 2 in the first dataset and year 1 in the second. By the time you are 30 years later, a given year can appear in 30 different (30 year long) data sets. At the other end, the same thing happens in reverse, data can be used less and less frequently and 2020 data can only appear in one trace. So for 30 year datasets in the 150 years of Shiller's data, the first and last 29 years are represented less often than the middle 92. Personally my approach is to repeat the 1871 and later data at the end of the series, so that all time frames appear equally, though obviously that creates a new problem that 1871 and later results will be different from 2021 and later.
I also wonder whether the oldest data have much significance. It is hard to grasp whether 1871 (Shiller's first year of data) has a bearing on today when Civil War reconstruction was ongoing, the transcontinental railroad was just completed and electric lights and the automobile were not around.
But even if perfectly applicable, 150 years of data is only five fully independent 30 year datasets. So even if the behavior statistics do not change over time, the odds that those few data sets pick up the full range of extremes is very low. Evaluating longer retirements creates an even larger end point problem and has even fewer fully independent datasets.
Most people intuitively understand that they can't fully trust historical results to represent the future so they try to be conservative on the saved amount and try to cut back spending if the market goes down a bunch. That's about all we can do.
For instance, it overemphasizes some years and underemphasizes others. Each starting year in the data gets one trace, but statistically that's not fair, the end points are under-represented. The first year of data only occurs in one trace, the second year can appear as year 2 in the first dataset and year 1 in the second. By the time you are 30 years later, a given year can appear in 30 different (30 year long) data sets. At the other end, the same thing happens in reverse, data can be used less and less frequently and 2020 data can only appear in one trace. So for 30 year datasets in the 150 years of Shiller's data, the first and last 29 years are represented less often than the middle 92. Personally my approach is to repeat the 1871 and later data at the end of the series, so that all time frames appear equally, though obviously that creates a new problem that 1871 and later results will be different from 2021 and later.
I also wonder whether the oldest data have much significance. It is hard to grasp whether 1871 (Shiller's first year of data) has a bearing on today when Civil War reconstruction was ongoing, the transcontinental railroad was just completed and electric lights and the automobile were not around.
But even if perfectly applicable, 150 years of data is only five fully independent 30 year datasets. So even if the behavior statistics do not change over time, the odds that those few data sets pick up the full range of extremes is very low. Evaluating longer retirements creates an even larger end point problem and has even fewer fully independent datasets.
Most people intuitively understand that they can't fully trust historical results to represent the future so they try to be conservative on the saved amount and try to cut back spending if the market goes down a bunch. That's about all we can do.
Qs Laptop
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Ooh, I'm so close...now if you can just use the word "peregrination" in a sentence, I get Bingo!
I love this forum!
daylatedollarshort
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I use a zero real return for our minimum target, 100 / estimated years of retirement left = max safe withdrawal rate. For us now that is 100 / 30 = 3.33 at 0% real return, higher SWR if we can get a higher return than inflation. SS and pensions cover most of our expenses, but I like calculating the SWR for gifting or maybe some special one time expenses.
FANOFJESUS
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My favorite chart ever. We spend a lot of time grousing about the little orange slice. @RobbieB has it right.
@RobbieB is no stranger to spending. I don't think he spends the most here but he is the biggest spending cheerleader here.
