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Old 11-17-2021, 08:45 PM   #81
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We should stop feeding the troll...
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Old 11-19-2021, 04:13 PM   #82
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Your equation does not make sense. I have a BS and ms in math. What are all the comas for? No need to explain since I'm moving on.
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Old 11-19-2021, 09:26 PM   #83
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Spend it All

Die With Zero / Die Broke read after the Millionaire Next door - ROI 4% won’t get to zero so Blow the Dough - I say - cash left will be spent- Die w/Zero!
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Old 11-20-2021, 02:58 PM   #84
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Your equation does not make sense. I have a BS and ms in math. What are all the comas for? No need to explain since I'm moving on.
The commas are just to separate different input parameters in Excel's function called RATE.

If OP had titled the thread "Spreadsheet Financial Functions and How to Use Them" and started with an introduction like:

"Hi, I'm new to this forum so don't know if this would be useful to folks here, but I work a lot with Excel and specifically its financial functions. I've noticed that a lot of my peers either don't know about these or use them wrong, so thought I would share a few tips about what functions are available and the way to use them."

And then OP could share the mini tutorial and folks would know what they were getting. Had that happened, then we might have been able to have a technical discussion about certain spreadsheet functions for those interested, instead of having to read page after page of cryptic comments just to figure out that's all it was.

Personally I don't thinks it's healthy for a board to discourage participation of potential contributors and OP is clearly knowledgeable about Excel and can be a resource to the group, so I think the whole interaction was unfortunate.
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Old 11-20-2021, 03:22 PM   #85
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I agree on the last part but the OP's arrogance was the principal cause of the tepid reception that s/he received.
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Old 11-21-2021, 07:41 AM   #86
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Die With Zero / Die Broke read after the Millionaire Next door - ROI 4% won’t get to zero so Blow the Dough - I say - cash left will be spent- Die w/Zero!
My favorite chart ever. We spend a lot of time grousing about the little orange slice. @RobbieB has it right.

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Old 11-21-2021, 10:43 AM   #87
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I have no desire whatsoever to spend down to zero.
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Old 11-21-2021, 12:09 PM   #88
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I don't want to run out of money either and think we need to be careful about the math behind these analyses. When we use historical data in statistics, everyone recognizes that it doesn't predict the future, but I wonder if people some other issues.

For instance, it overemphasizes some years and underemphasizes others. Each starting year in the data gets one trace, but statistically that's not fair, the end points are under-represented. The first year of data only occurs in one trace, the second year can appear as year 2 in the first dataset and year 1 in the second. By the time you are 30 years later, a given year can appear in 30 different (30 year long) data sets. At the other end, the same thing happens in reverse, data can be used less and less frequently and 2020 data can only appear in one trace. So for 30 year datasets in the 150 years of Shiller's data, the first and last 29 years are represented less often than the middle 92. Personally my approach is to repeat the 1871 and later data at the end of the series, so that all time frames appear equally, though obviously that creates a new problem that 1871 and later results will be different from 2021 and later.

I also wonder whether the oldest data have much significance. It is hard to grasp whether 1871 (Shiller's first year of data) has a bearing on today when Civil War reconstruction was ongoing, the transcontinental railroad was just completed and electric lights and the automobile were not around.

But even if perfectly applicable, 150 years of data is only five fully independent 30 year datasets. So even if the behavior statistics do not change over time, the odds that those few data sets pick up the full range of extremes is very low. Evaluating longer retirements creates an even larger end point problem and has even fewer fully independent datasets.

Most people intuitively understand that they can't fully trust historical results to represent the future so they try to be conservative on the saved amount and try to cut back spending if the market goes down a bunch. That's about all we can do.
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Old 02-28-2022, 12:25 PM   #89
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I've noticed an endemic pandemic of innumeracy. RATE is one inoculant meme.

Mathematical formulae are specifically excluded from patentability in all jurisdictions.
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Ooh, I'm so close...now if you can just use the word "peregrination" in a sentence, I get Bingo!
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Old 02-28-2022, 01:22 PM   #90
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I use a zero real return for our minimum target, 100 / estimated years of retirement left = max safe withdrawal rate. For us now that is 100 / 30 = 3.33 at 0% real return, higher SWR if we can get a higher return than inflation. SS and pensions cover most of our expenses, but I like calculating the SWR for gifting or maybe some special one time expenses.
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Old 02-28-2022, 05:40 PM   #91
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My favorite chart ever. We spend a lot of time grousing about the little orange slice. @RobbieB has it right.

@RobbieB is no stranger to spending. I don't think he spends the most here but he is the biggest spending cheerleader here.
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