Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-17-2021, 07:03 AM   #221
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
@brianjone5 How are you coming along on your decision?

Has the site come to the unanimous conclusion that taking SS at 62 and taking pensions as lump sums, if offered, are the best choices?
chassis is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-17-2021, 07:10 AM   #222
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,493
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
Has the site come to the unanimous conclusion that taking SS at 62 and taking pensions as lump sums, if offered, are the best choices?
Can't imagine anything here being unanimous. I would bet there's a wide distribution of choices of when to take SS. It really depends on the individual/couple.

As far as taking pensions as a lump sum (when offered), I had that choice, but my Megacorp offered less than 45% of the annuity value. Very few in my position would have taken the lump sum.
statsman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 07:29 AM   #223
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
@brianjone5 How are you coming along on your decision?

Has the site come to the unanimous conclusion that taking SS at 62 and taking pensions as lump sums, if offered, are the best choices?
If anything, I think the "site" is more on the wait til 70 side
qwerty3656 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 08:10 AM   #224
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 25,266
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
@brianjone5 How are you coming along on your decision?

Has the site come to the unanimous conclusion that taking SS at 62 and taking pensions as lump sums, if offered, are the best choices?
Did you forget to put a 'smiley' or "LOL" emoticon on that post?

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 02:18 PM   #225
Recycles dryer sheets
Romer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Centennial
Posts: 220
I enjoyed reading through this thread. What I like is all the different perspectives. I think hearing different peoples perspectives and opinions is more insightful then if everyone is in agreement.

Someone on here made a very wise statement. You don't have to make the when decision now unless it is at 62. You can go on year by year or even month by month evaluating based on your situation and decide when to make the plunge

Everyone's situation is different. Opensocialsecurity.com is a great site and recommended I take it at 70 with my wife at 66. She should then file for spousal support at 70. The difference though was around $100K over lifetime taking it at 65 vs 70 per their model.

I then modeled in my spread sheet 4 scenarios, 62, 65, 67, and 70 with my wife taking hers at 67. All had spousal benefits

I assumed tax rates would go up in 2026

I looked at a very conservative ROI of 2.5%

I included my pension

I added my RMDs based on projected balances to the IRS table

There are several years I can live on pension and cash so I can do Roth Conversions to 12%.

Other scenarios showed different curves and break even points, but this one showed taking it at 65 was best up until age 91, and then 67 and 70 were better. In the scenario where I did not do Roth's and didn't live off of cash for a few years, the breakeven was 83-85

Yes I modeled to age 110, I am optimistic

So what am I going to do with this data? I am 60 so I will relook at it every year. If it still shows the same thing at 62 then I will wait and relook every year until I decide to file. I don't take this as the absolute truth, but it does suggest taking Roth's to 12% will reduce my RMDs which will reduce my tax burden. That isn't the decider, but a variable to when I should take SS

Taking SS at 62 doesn't give me those few years to live off of cash is what I see to maximize my Roth contribution to 12%. I don't have enough cash to do this past 64 so why 65 starts looking good.

That's just me and one scenario I could go down. Other scenarios change the answer, but I don't have to make the decision now and can wait and see what the market does and how much I spend over the next few years.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg SS.JPG (61.7 KB, 30 views)
__________________
FIRE'd March 2022
Romer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 02:32 PM   #226
Recycles dryer sheets
Romer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Centennial
Posts: 220
I should add if I change the ROI to 4% the difference between the options becomes smaller and as you can see it doesn't really matter when I take it. I can only spend so much money

That is the only variable I changed and now 65 isn't the sure winner. 62 and 65 are close, but 70 is still the best starting in the mid 90's which I think is to far out to count on for now

I did also model for my wife if I were to pass and she will be fine in any scenario

Edit- posted the wrong curve. Corrected
Attached Images
File Type: jpg ss2.JPG (71.7 KB, 28 views)
__________________
FIRE'd March 2022
Romer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 02:39 PM   #227
Recycles dryer sheets
Romer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Centennial
Posts: 220
And if I just change the ROI to 8%, then 62 is the clear winner

These 3 posts should illustrate there is no right answer . . . it depends
Attached Images
File Type: jpg SS3.JPG (60.9 KB, 28 views)
__________________
FIRE'd March 2022
Romer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 03:17 PM   #228
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 12,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by qwerty3656 View Post
If anything, I think the "site" is more on the wait til 70 side
But "the site" isn't entitled to SS!
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2021, 11:40 AM   #229
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 374
Romer - great graphs. Thanks
whatnot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2021, 05:42 PM   #230
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 315
Quote:
Originally Posted by Romer View Post
I should add if I change the ROI to 4% the difference between the options becomes smaller and as you can see it doesn't really matter when I take it. I can only spend so much money

That is the only variable I changed and now 65 isn't the sure winner. 62 and 65 are close, but 70 is still the best starting in the mid 90's which I think is to far out to count on for now

I did also model for my wife if I were to pass and she will be fine in any scenario

Edit- posted the wrong curve. Corrected
based on what you modeled, and your subsequent post with 8%, I'd argue that you should seriously look at age 65... it also appears that anything above 65 is not adverse to a good outcome.
Why 65...if there's any sensitivity (8% is likely way too high...not many have 100% equities as that's just too much risk) then having the extra cash in the portfolio for "one offs"/immediate needs (by not delaying further and keeping your taxable account higher) would be beneficial. Clearly you show that age 62 is not acceptable; much better outcome if one delays (at least) three years. The case for age 70 (at least in your numbers isn't nearly as strong.

That's my pair of pennies
FI_RElater is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2021, 06:19 PM   #231
Recycles dryer sheets
Romer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: Centennial
Posts: 220
That is where I was at as well
__________________
FIRE'd March 2022
Romer is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Social Security Torpedo Tax with Pensions? MrLoco FIRE and Money 39 04-17-2017 12:55 AM
What mortgage number to use in retirement modelling jazzbo FIRE and Money 9 01-27-2017 12:21 PM
Deficit panel leaders' plan curbs Social Security and Other Sacred Cows MasterBlaster FIRE and Money 140 11-15-2010 05:59 AM
Modelling health care cost in early retirement? maldini Health and Early Retirement 37 10-10-2007 01:53 PM
Valuing pensions and other income streams two4theroad FIRE and Money 2 05-10-2007 05:16 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:02 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.