More Bubble Talk

[brewer12345]

i think the real bear market will start later this year and continue into 1998 once housing starts falling apart. 3Q is when most ARM's start resetting, payment shock will come in time for the back to school shopping season and in time for christmas

Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!

 

[HFWR]

This time around, I'm pulling a Mark Cuban...

 

[audreyh1]

Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!

Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey

 

[perinova]

3Q is when most ARM's start resetting,

How can I find this information?
Do you know how much notice the home"owner" is given to the increase?

 

[al_bundy]

http://ml-implode.com/

this is the first big year for ARM resets. most people close around June due to the spring/summer buying season and this is the third quarter.

your mortgage terms are in your mortgage docs including how and by how much your ARM resets. Usually it's 2% or so over LIBOR up to a max rate of 9% or higher and it can go up by 2% a year. the specifics may be different depending on the lender

if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.

the exceptions i remember off the top of my head are 1920's, 1950's and 1990's. and 1931 wasn't exactly a stellar year either for stocks.

odds are on a bear market in the latter part of a decade most times. usually because by the middle of the decade people are taking stupid risks in search of higher returns and it takes a few years to catch up.

 

[al_bundy]

Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey

i was thinking of starting up a housing dot com and taking it public

we'll need a catchy metric as well. some thing like x number of legs per month visiting our master planned communities

 

[Gone4Good]

http://ml-implode.com/
if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.

Wow, this is so completely random that you'd do just as well measuring hemlines (and have more fun too).

 

[JPatrick]

.
For the last 4 trading sessions I have slipped into cash ever so slowly and I plan to follow one of two plans for better or worse.
Plan A- Sell equal amounts each day until I reach my max cash position ( 70% )on May 18.
Plan B- If between now and the 18th the SPY MACD gives a clear sell signal I will go to the 70% cash position that day.

F W I W, last weeks action convinced me that I could be ahead of myself regarding my goal of 70% cash by the COB May 18.
Sooo, I pushed the equal sales pause button on May 11. Still anticipate selling down, but I want to watch a couple of days worth of action before resuming.

 

[Islandboy]

Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?

 

[Nords]

Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?

Exactly-- no one's worrying, so there must be a bubble.

Unless it really is different this time...

 

[Gone4Good]

Can you spot the bubble in this picture:

I can, and it ain't 2007.

 

[Dawg52]

Can you spot the bubble in this picture:

I can, and it ain't 2007.

Thanks for the chart. Doesn't mean we won't have a correction, but it does put things in perspective.

 

[JPatrick]

Can you spot the bubble in this picture:

I can, and it ain't 2007.

Ain't no bubble for 07, but toss up a S&P 500 for the same period and I bet I can find a 4 to 6 % correction.