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Old 06-01-2020, 08:34 AM   #21
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I guess that I don't get it. Any currency is only as good as the population's willingness to use it as an exchange medium. If the SHTF to the point where the US$ is worthless as an exchange medium, what makes you think that gold and silver will still be accepted as an exchange medium. None has any practical value other than people's historical willingness to exchange but in that scenario that history may be meaningless.
Yes, there is that risk.

If things get really really bad, we go down to the bottom of the "needs" triangle to food, water, warmth, rest, and safety needs (security, safety). In that case "you can't eat gold" becomes true (well, sort of as gold can be eaten ). But, the thought is that fiat currency would likely be worth zero, while hard assets like gold would have some trading/store of wealth value. My guess would be that it wouldn't be worth as much as today in terms of purchasing power, but would have some value as a means of exchange. More basic things: Food, water, AMMO (even lead and gunpowder to make a projectile) would have more value. Perhaps after starting to come "out" of such a situation is where gold would potentially shine, i.e. if/when we get to a point where something is needed to represent excess wealth (i.e. wealth beyond the immediate need of survival).

I put gold (and silver) AFTER having a good supply of food, a way of providing warmth in the winter, a source of clean water (or way to produce it), and a way to protect oneself.
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Old 06-01-2020, 09:35 AM   #22
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I would take possession of a 1 percent stake. If I wanted more than that I would buy gld or similar.
At 1% it probably doesn't matter all that much, but we tin foil wearing Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly types have 20-25% in gold so we naturally keep tabs on the available options, which change frequently.

IAU and AAAU are probably the two best gold ETFs and the latter in particular is a good option since it is owned by Perth Mint and you can actually redeem shares for physical gold (provided you're not in the middle of a pandemic that makes a flight to Australia challenging ).

You might also consider Bullionvault (.com) for physical gold. You have the option of storage in vaults either in NY, London or Switzerland and costs and storage fees are often better than what you'll incur buying coins or bullion from a dealer. YMMV

Much more discussion (too much, most likely) here on the PP forum:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/...wforum.php?f=5
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:27 AM   #23
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Apmex.com has always worked well for me buying and selling back. Goldmoney.com for holding bullion in another countries vault but requires an extra tax form.
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Old 06-01-2020, 10:34 AM   #24
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At 1% it probably doesn't matter all that much, but we tin foil wearing Permanent Portfolio and Golden Butterfly types have 20-25% in gold so we naturally keep tabs on the available options, which change frequently.

IAU and AAAU are probably the two best gold ETFs and the latter in particular is a good option since it is owned by Perth Mint and you can actually redeem shares for physical gold (provided you're not in the middle of a pandemic that makes a flight to Australia challenging ).

You might also consider Bullionvault (.com) for physical gold. You have the option of storage in vaults either in NY, London or Switzerland and costs and storage fees are often better than what you'll incur buying coins or bullion from a dealer. YMMV

Much more discussion (too much, most likely) here on the PP forum:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/...wforum.php?f=5
I just did some really fast math on the OUNZ calculator and it's looking like shares redeemed for physical gold eagles can be had for 1855 each vs. 1872 on apmex. There has got to be a booger in my math, but its worth more digging to get the convince of an ETF with an escape hatch.
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Old 06-01-2020, 11:46 AM   #25
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I may be slow, but if the objective is to have gold when SHTF, how are ETF shares or gold held in vaults in Switzerland going to help with that?

My other little puzzle is this: Virtually none of us live in houses that are in any way defensible. Again in the SHTF scenario, I think it's more likely that we quickly end up dead and robbed than it is that we end up in a world where we are able to trade assets safely.

I have a few thousand rounds in my basement, left over from target-shooting days, but I have never thought of it as much of an asset. I even have a collector grade black rifle. But with three outside doors to the house and all of the main/only floor visible from one window or another, my defensive battle would not last very long.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:04 PM   #26
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My guess is that gold might help in a scenario where the world remains functioning, but this country, for whatever reason, becomes a place you don't want to live. Sort of like those fleeing Germany in the 1930s; if they had gold, they could get out and go somewhere safer. In a true Mad Max scenario, I think beans and bullets (and a community) would prove to be a lot more valuable than gold.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:28 PM   #27
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I may be slow, but if the objective is to have gold when SHTF, how are ETF shares or gold held in vaults in Switzerland going to help with that?

My other little puzzle is this: Virtually none of us live in houses that are in any way defensible. Again in the SHTF scenario, I think it's more likely that we quickly end up dead and robbed than it is that we end up in a world where we are able to trade assets safely.

I have a few thousand rounds in my basement, left over from target-shooting days, but I have never thought of it as much of an asset. I even have a collector grade black rifle. But with three outside doors to the house and all of the main/only floor visible from one window or another, my defensive battle would not last very long.
Well, you do you. Good luck.

Physical gold is a good way to hedge a disaster scenario. Gold ETFs are a way to hedge other scenarios, such as stagflation, rampant money printing to prop up zombie companies, a decline in the value of the US dollar, the world's pre-eminent superpower sliding into banana republic territory amid rampant corruption and an inability to stop rioters and looters from destroying its urban centers. Any of those scenarios ring a bell? Maybe we live in different worlds.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:28 PM   #28
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I may be slow, but if the objective is to have gold when SHTF, how are ETF shares or gold held in vaults in Switzerland going to help with that?

My other little puzzle is this: Virtually none of us live in houses that are in any way defensible. Again in the SHTF scenario, I think it's more likely that we quickly end up dead and robbed than it is that we end up in a world where we are able to trade assets safely.

I have a few thousand rounds in my basement, left over from target-shooting days, but I have never thought of it as much of an asset. I even have a collector grade black rifle. But with three outside doors to the house and all of the main/only floor visible from one window or another, my defensive battle would not last very long.
Switzerland: It all depends on where the promised land is. But assuming is Switzerland, an oz or two in hand to get you on the plane and then a cache from a Swiss vault once you get there that you don't have to carry through capital controlled exit ports...
Its about spreading risks across geographies. I'd go in a shipping container if I had to... (until now) people are desperate enough to come here that way...

SHTF: Everything is a matter of degrees.
Just racking the slide on a 12ga pump will likely scare off a hood-rat.
Firing the 12ga will likely drive off 3ish hood-rats.
30 military trained armed mercs organized by Negan off of the walking dead?? yeah I'm probably toast. (I dont watch the show so I might have the pop culture reference wrong).
But I do keep a fire extinguisher around the house to take care of the small stuff even though it would be no match for an attic fire.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:31 PM   #29
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I've bought and sold lots of gold coins, usually 1oz Krugerrands (KRands) and American Eagles (AGE). (both 22k gold) and sometimes Canadian Maples Leafs. (24k gold)

Very easy to buy and sell at most coins shows. There are usually several dealers dealing in PM's at each show. Check with different dealers since some will trade at bullion spreads and some try to get some numismatic value. IMO, there is no sense in paying any premium for modern gold regardless of grading.

There are some counterfeits floating around so if you are buying coins, buy from a well known/reputable dealer. Using a small digital scale and learn how to weigh the coins. A magnet is also useful in reducing the risk of buying a counterfeit. There are other test such as density and acid test but I've never used them myself. If you are buying certified coins (in a slab) be aware there are fake certified coins too. (both the coin and slab). Bottom line, learn to spots fakes, it's not that hard to learn.

Oh, I've learn to stay away from 24k gold coins, like Canadian Maple Leafs unless you are a "collector". They are very pretty to look at but they scratch far too easily. KRands and AGE are 22k and can be handled without any significant risks of damage. (unless you are a total klutz)
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:44 PM   #30
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On a slightly tangential thread: I've been trying to accumulate 50 coins minted in the year in which we got married (pre-AGE, so its more of a challenge... leaves only Maples and Krugs) with the goal of presenting them to my wife on our 50 year/Golden Anniversary.
I've got a way's to go... and now everybody wants to charge extra for them whereas before dealers just let me sort through for specific dates.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:51 PM   #31
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On a slightly tangential thread: I've been trying to accumulate 50 coins minted in the year in which we got married (pre-AGE, so its more of a challenge... leaves only Maples and Krugs) with the goal of presenting them to my wife on our 50 year/Golden Anniversary.
I've got a way's to go... and now everybody wants to charge extra for them whereas before dealers just let me sort through for specific dates.
So that would indicate that you got married sometime between 1979 and 1985.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:25 PM   #32
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My research 1978-1985 showed that best way to profit from a gold boom is to buy shares in gold mining companies. Owning physical gold is challenging; the possibility of fakes, impurities, shaving, personal storage, public storage, loss prevention, assay costs, commissions and liquidity. However, I have seriously considered buying a few bars, ingots for WTSHTF! But I am reminded when as a mere mining engineering graduate that bought a gold mutual fund( United Services Gold Fund) in 1979 and profited most handsomely without risking the above challenges. I own shares in Barrick GOLD(a sole gold miner), Freeport FCX (diversified gold miner), and Turquoise Hill TRQ (speculative wager on the best gold/silver/copper deposit with serious political issues), but no longer the mutual fund. Gold investing is a very big PITA, no matter how you do it.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:30 PM   #33
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My dad was an astute investor, but he made a huge mistake not long before his death when he bought gold coins through that company Glenn Beck was hawking. I think it’s Goldline? I inherited the coins, they are sitting in a safe deposit box in another state, and I fear that they are worth practically nothing. I have no idea how to cash them in, and I don’t even think they would be worth much anyway. Goldline was sued in 2011, wish I’d been paying attention then, because it was some sort of class action lawsuit. Goldline will apparently buy back the coins, but I’m guessing it would be for pennies on the dollar.

My point: make sure you go through a very reputable source if you do buy gold.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:33 PM   #34
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I ordered 100oz of Gold Eagles last year from Apmex. After I submitted the order, I started thinking about where to put it. I know, a little backwards. Couldn't figure out where to put $160k of gold in my house, so I looked for a safe deposit box. None available. Bury it in the yard? At that point, I felt I needed to do some more research and cox the order.

I have no interest in gold at it's current price. I am stockpiling guns and ammo right now.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:50 PM   #35
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If things get really really bad, we go down to the bottom of the "needs" triangle to food, water, warmth, rest, and safety needs (security, safety). ....

I put gold (and silver) AFTER having a good supply of food, a way of providing warmth in the winter, a source of clean water (or way to produce it), and a way to protect oneself.
I would add alcohol in that list, as a valued thing that stores well.

When my Uncle died at age 96, it turned out he had 1 year supply of freeze dried food in the basement. He had lived though various bad times (Depression, WWI, WWII, etc) which (IMHO) had been a learning experience.
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:51 PM   #36
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... Physical gold is a good way to hedge a disaster scenario. Gold ETFs are a way to hedge other scenarios, such as stagflation, rampant money printing to prop up zombie companies, a decline in the value of the US dollar, the world's pre-eminent superpower sliding into banana republic territory amid rampant corruption and an inability to stop rioters and looters from destroying its urban centers. Any of those scenarios ring a bell? ...
In the sense of being something worth worrying about? No, except for a decline in the dollar/a near certainty IMO. Possible? Maybe. There are lots of possible things not worth worrying about.

Actually, I think having well over a third of our total assets invested in non-US equities plus another 20% +/- in TIPS is probably pretty decent insurance overall, including for your scenarios. How well do you think your planned 1% gold stake will work as insurance?
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Old 06-01-2020, 01:54 PM   #37
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In the sense of being something worth worrying about? No, except for a decline in the dollar/a near certainty IMO. Possible? Maybe. There are lots of possible things not worth worrying about.

Actually, I think having well over a third of our total assets invested in non-US equities plus another 20% +/- in TIPS is probably pretty decent insurance overall, including for your scenarios. How well do you think your planned 1% gold stake will work as insurance?
1% for me is generally a toe in the water that may be the prelude to a larger position.

Like I said, you do you. Good luck.
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Old 06-01-2020, 02:04 PM   #38
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Actually, I think having well over a third of our total assets invested in non-US equities plus another 20% +/- in TIPS is probably pretty decent insurance overall, including for your scenarios.
These are just digits on a computer monitor, right? Good luck cashing those in during a panic.
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Old 06-01-2020, 02:16 PM   #39
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These are just digits on a computer monitor, right? Good luck cashing those in during a panic.
Yup, it'll be much easier to sell gold. Good luck cashing that in during a panic.
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Old 06-01-2020, 02:46 PM   #40
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Gold Crowns ? Would be like pulling teeth to cash them in ( Rimshot )
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