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Old 07-09-2021, 06:35 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
In your taxable income calculation are you including only 85% of SS? That would be an easy thing to miss. I didn't bother to build a calculation of taxable SS in my model but I just assumed that 85% of SS would be taxable across the board given the level of our income.
I am only including 85% for SS and also the standard deduction of $24500
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Old 07-09-2021, 06:38 AM   #62
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I am only including 85% for SS and also the standard deduction of $24500
Do you inflate the standard deduction and then bump it up it when you each reach age 65? I increase the standard deduction usng the same assumption as the increase in tax brackets.

For 2021 the base standard deduction for MFJ is $25,100 and it increases $1,350 for each person 65 or older.
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Old 07-09-2021, 06:46 AM   #63
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One thing about complex models is that there can be calculations that the modeler thinks are doing one thing, but they're doing something else. Back when I was obsessing over this kind of thing more often, I had all my assumptions defined, then build a version of my model that tried to replicate a simpler online model. Let me tell you, it was hard to replicate anything, because even if they tell you how it's supposed to be working, and lay out their assumptions, there's still methodological choices undisclosed.

The thing I came away with was if one follows a few principles, you can get most of the benefit. Also, the difference between winging it and putting the finest point on it as possible might not amount to much. That's not to say modeling isn't worth it...it is. It's just to say you should probably enjoy modeling if you do a lot of it. I used to enjoy it more than I do lately.
x2

My spreadsheet gets out of control sometimes. That’s when I go back and eliminate some of the 999 assumptions and what if’s I have made and get it back to simple. At the end of the day, I have income and expenses. My savings has to cover the difference. Once I saw the simplicity of this approach, my model became a lot simpler.
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Old 07-09-2021, 07:50 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Romer View Post
Fair point.
Did I capture your comment correctly?
Yes, I believe you did, and @PB4uski's comments did capture my thoughts. Thank you.



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Originally Posted by chassis View Post
BS alert: embedded tax liabilities are a red herring.
Well, we have been polite on the differences between our viewpoints, but I do take umbrage at calling my view "bullshit."

Let's consider a parable:

Two identical twins, Adam and Brian, have lived identical financial lives, and they each have $1,000,000 in a traditional IRA as of Monday. Due to other income, they are in the 22% tax bracket.

On Tuesday, Brian decides to convert some money to a Roth IRA, so he distributes $64k from his tIRA, has $14k tax withheld, and deposits $50 in the Roth.

Wed:
Adam: $1,000k tIRA; $0 Roth; $1000k total
Brian: $936k tIRA; $50k Roth; $986 total (Hmmm, is Brian poorer than Adam?)

On Thursday, the twins each decide to splurge and buy a new Cadillac for their upcoming 60th birthday. Each costs $50k. Adam takes the funds from his tIRA, and Brian uses the Roth funds. Adam withdraws $64k and has $14k tax witheld.

Friday:
Adam: $936k tIRA; $0 Roth; $936k total + a Caddy.
Brian: $936k tIRA; $0k Roth;$936k total + a Caddy.

I think you would agree that the Roth conversion did not harm Brian’s financial standing, yes?



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Gentleman, there is no right answer. No BS here. What everyone is looking for and wants to see in a graph and tool is different

My only goal is making sure I have a viable conceptual plan to not run out of money. I considered tax implications as I moved money between account but not of the accounts themselves.
I certainly agree with your sentiments here. I will perhaps quibble that you say that your "only goal" was to establish a viable plan, but then you seemed to use your spreadsheet upthread to decide on the advisability of Roth conversions (without taking into account all the implications).
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:11 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Do you inflate the standard deduction and then bump it up it when you each reach age 65? I increase the standard deduction usng the same assumption as the increase in tax brackets.

For 2021 the base standard deduction for MFJ is $25,100 and it increases $1,350 for each person 65 or older.

I havent done that although I did raise the brackets by the average they have changed the last few years. That would create even more margin. Thats a good point to raise if someone wanted to consider that
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:21 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Out-to-Lunch View Post
I certainly agree with your sentiments here. I will perhaps quibble that you say that your "only goal" was to establish a viable plan, but then you seemed to use your spreadsheet upthread to decide on the advisability of Roth conversions (without taking into account all the implications).
I understand your perspective and I could have dove deeper. There certainly are other factors to consider.

My objective was to find in which scenario my money lasts the longest. As money comes out of the IRA or is converted into a Roth the tax implications of those transactions are considered. That allows me to see the conversion impacts on how long money lasts. Once the money goes to zero there are no tax implications

To your point I did not consider the future tax implications of the money remaining in the IRA vs the Roth. Although certainly a factor, I did not see it required for the how long exercise. If I dive deeper, and I likely will once I am retired, to define the next year option for Roth vs no Roth looking at long term factors I will include that. Thanks for the comment, I do appreciate it
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:21 AM   #67
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I havent done that although I did raise the brackets by the average they have changed the last few years. That would create even more margin. Thats a good point to raise if someone wanted to consider that
This is where planning in nominal dollars really simplifies things. You don't need to inflate the tax brackets or standard deductions.

If you dig really deep into taxes on SS, you will find the "standard" deduction from SS earnings is not indexed to inflation, so you will have to account for that if planning in nominal dollars. This is a sneaky tax increase on SS earnings that happens every year.
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:24 AM   #68
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^^^ I think you have it backwards... if you plan in nominal dollars then you should include inflation and use nominal rates of return but if you plan in real dollars then you can ignore inflation and use real rates of return.

I find nominal easier because that is what will be reflected in my accounts, tax calculations, etc. I don't mind factoring in inflation as an assumption.
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:53 AM   #69
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I'm a retired engineer similar to a few others here.
I never had a budget or bothered to track expenses back in my working years. But I had a decent income, saved a lot in tax-deferred off the top, and wasn't a spendaholic, so it worked out.

As I got close to retirement, the forums I read recommended recommended getting a handle on your "expenses". So I put together a detailed spreadsheet, updated many times over a period of several weeks.
I focused mainly on Basic Expenses, since discretionary travel expenses would hopefully be a lot higher in retirement.

Turned out my Basic Expenses were a modest fraction of my pre-retirement income, so I just decided: let's just aim for the same Net Monthly Income in retirement as when working, meaning that my checking account would hardly know the difference.

So I did that and my AGI and resulting income taxes have been higher than my employment years each year since retiring in 2013.

Now I do maintain a different spreadsheet in retirement to project and manage my AGI. This comes down mainly to figuring how much to Roth convert to get AGI up close to but not over the next higher Medicare IRMAA tier. I don't try to estimate income taxes or growth of my investments in this spreadsheet, just my AGI.

I do my own income taxes each year, so I know my taxes for this year will be just a bit more than last year, provided I don't do something silly and get a big jump in AGI...
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Old 07-09-2021, 09:17 AM   #70
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I'm a retired engineer similar to a few others here.
I never had a budget or bothered to track expenses back in my working years. But I had a decent income, saved a lot in tax-deferred off the top, and wasn't a spendaholic, so it worked out.

As I got close to retirement, the forums I read recommended recommended getting a handle on your "expenses". So I put together a detailed spreadsheet, updated many times over a period of several weeks.
I focused mainly on Basic Expenses, since discretionary travel expenses would hopefully be a lot higher in retirement.

Turned out my Basic Expenses were a modest fraction of my pre-retirement income, so I just decided: let's just aim for the same Net Monthly Income in retirement as when working, meaning that my checking account would hardly know the difference.

So I did that and my AGI and resulting income taxes have been higher than my employment years each year since retiring in 2013.

Now I do maintain a different spreadsheet in retirement to project and manage my AGI. This comes down mainly to figuring how much to Roth convert to get AGI up close to but not over the next higher Medicare IRMAA tier. I don't try to estimate income taxes or growth of my investments in this spreadsheet, just my AGI.

I do my own income taxes each year, so I know my taxes for this year will be just a bit more than last year, provided I don't do something silly and get a big jump in AGI...
Sounds like you know what needs to be done

The one thing this last discussion has me thinking about is I do have a good amount of savings that could fully meet my needs for the first couple of years

I had been taking expenses out of Roth conversions where as I could just make it 100% Roth

or I could look at stretching it to be in the 12% tax bracket for the first few years of retirement

Likely will go the Roth conversion for at least year one and see how that goes

also need to consider since I am retiring in January and I will get a Vacation and Bonus payout how that all impacts year one. It likely means year 2 and 3 could be off of savings for expenses along with my pension

BUT, I also need to make sure I have sufficient cash or safe funds in case of a market downturn. I could do that within the IRA though

There is always something more to look at Always something more to learn
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Old 07-09-2021, 10:42 AM   #71
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@Out-to-Lunch when you get back from lunch you will likely recall the many threads on this site about Roth conversions. Romer has charted quite nicely the impoverishing effect of Roth conversions the “morning after” they are taken. There are many long winded threads on this.

On the specific topic which lit the BS meter light for me, is future tax liabilities. Hogwash. Do you carry as an asset on your balance sheet the present value of all future income such as SS, pension, RE rent, etc? Do you also carry the present value of all future liabilities such as sales tax on everything you might possibly purchase, all property tax, in fact any expense you might incur during your remaining time on Earth? I don’t.

Romer and others treat tax in the year it is payable. To wit: after income has been realized. This is handled on the income statement.
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Old 07-09-2021, 11:06 AM   #72
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@Out-to-Lunch when you get back from lunch you will likely recall the many threads on this site about Roth conversions. Romer has charted quite nicely the impoverishing effect of Roth conversions the “morning after” they are taken. There are many long winded threads on this.
Yes, we have hashed this over before, but you continue to assert that Roth conversions "impoverish" the holder. Did you read the parable? Did you find any flaws in it?


Quote:
On the specific topic which lit the BS meter light for me, is future tax liabilities. Hogwash. Do you carry as an asset on your balance sheet the present value of all future income such as SS, pension, RE rent, etc? Do you also carry the present value of all future liabilities such as sales tax on everything you might possibly purchase, all property tax, in fact any expense you might incur during your remaining time on Earth? I don’t.
You know, you have asked me these questions before, and I have answered them. I doubt you have memory problems, so I am beginning to sense that your questions are not earnest.

It is okay for you to not want to do Roth conversions. It is okay for you to argue against them. It is okay for you to point out their limitations, as it is okay for others to point out circumstances where they are advantageous. It is not okay to call the arguments of others "bullshit."
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Old 07-09-2021, 01:13 PM   #73
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Yes, we have hashed this over before, but you continue to assert that Roth conversions "impoverish" the holder. Did you read the parable? Did you find any flaws in it?




You know, you have asked me these questions before, and I have answered them. I doubt you have memory problems, so I am beginning to sense that your questions are not earnest.

It is okay for you to not want to do Roth conversions. It is okay for you to argue against them. It is okay for you to point out their limitations, as it is okay for others to point out circumstances where they are advantageous. It is not okay to call the arguments of others "bullshit."
At some point it is just not worth responding to someone who ignores any clear proof (like your twins example a few posts back) and just repeats some meaningless requirements. But that's your call. I've already decided. And if someone want to follow their bad advice, that's on them.
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Old 07-09-2021, 02:22 PM   #74
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At some point it is just not worth responding to someone who ignores any clear proof (like your twins example a few posts back) and just repeats some meaningless requirements. But that's your call. I've already decided. And if someone want to follow their bad advice, that's on them.
That is a good question, RB. I want to state a couple of things, mostly for Romer's benefit. He started this thread to give info and get feedback on his modeling. I didn't particularly wish to turn his thread into (yet another) Roth conversion thread. But it appeared to me that Romer may have been overlooking the point (hashed out above) about the relative value of Roth, tIRA, and taxable funds, and I wanted to point it out to him for him to consider. Having other people give their viewpoints, which may not agree with mine, is part of that package, if done respecfully.

My purpose in participating in this forum is to learn things AND to share information and perspectives. In other threads, I have been pretty clear about what my purpose is in making Roth conversions (mostly protecting my DW after I kick, keeping us in a lower IRMAA tier, and perhaps a bit of tax-rate arbitrage). I mention conversions a lot, but it is not like I think they are a panacea or that everyone should do them. I happen to be in a position where they will (likely) benefit me (and my DW later). And I am happy to continue to learn, to possibly reassess that decision if new information comes to light. I like seeing the pros and cons of that strategy discussed, but I don't like it when they are misrepresented.
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Old 07-09-2021, 03:51 PM   #75
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On the FireCalc's website under Resources it mentions a book Nest Egg Care by Tom Canfield (below is an excerpt). His book is a great resource and has many excellent ideas. Something to consider for your own spreadsheet.

A Masters Thesis on FIRECalc?
If FIRECalc is the tool that lets you do a bunch of research, Tom Canfield's recent (2017) Nest Egg Care is the book on what to think about and look at, how to plan, and how to focus on fun and joy in retirement and giving to those you care about. Highly recommended!

See Tom's website at www.nesteggcare.com
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Old 07-09-2021, 04:00 PM   #76
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I did a spreadsheet! It forced me to look at expenses, and income, think about future income etc. It was a 35 year model. I created a section for big stuff, I.e.roof, Cars, etc. I handled taxes by using after tax income, as I planned for small refunds each year.

It was a good exercise and, along with post on here, Firecalc, and all this showed me we would be OK, and 16 years later we are.

One major expense I dodged a bullet on, is a new roof. Hail damage and insurance paid for it. I also have not purchased new cars as often, don't go on as much, and don't save for retirement. One thing not in my spreadsheet was reduced spending.

All in all, it was a good exercise, and I should have done it 10 years earlier.

For the first three years of retirement, I updated the model. For the next 3 or 4 years I tracked spending with Quicken. I am at the point now that I know that I am spending the kids money and I won't spend all of it. I check the bank statements and credit card charges to make sure they are right, but I don't model anything. Oh, I lost my original spreadsheet, but I think it was close.
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Old 07-09-2021, 05:35 PM   #77
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The bottom line is it is all an EDUCATED SWAG. Lots of engineers on this site, and we all consider the numbers and assumptions. Its what we do. Hopefully, it makes you feel better before you retire and in the early years. It IS a good base from which to embark from. From a strictly practical and realistically reasonable standpoint though, there are millions of people over the last hundred years that retired just fine with no real plans, and never ran out of money. Analysis paralysis can drain the fun out of life.

You did well, and you know it. You’ve lived your lifestyle for many many years, as has most everyone here. Without exception (may be a small stretch, but not by much) everyone here has more money in their portfolios and more spendable income than they expected/planned for.

The nature of the beast is that going in with eyes wide open, and living with in your means is basically all it takes to have a successful retirement. It’s what gor you here in the first place. I think pb4uski said “I’m sticking with the date I brought to the prom”.

The vast majority of people that post here are in the top 5%-10%. And always will be, so why worry? You will deal with variables as they emerge. Realistically there is a higher likelihood of some unknown factor (cancer, pandemic, terrorist attack, natural phenomenon) that will upset your plans in unexpected ways than your own normal way of handling and variations in tax rates, ROI, and spending will, mainly because you’ve been covering all those factors your whole adult life, while the vast majority of people have not, and still get by.

Don’t worry. Be happy.
Thanks for this post. Now I feel definitely relieved
Just opening this thread and looking at the extreme detail of building your own Excel file from scratch made me shudder. I'm OK with simple Excel spreadsheets, but not this kind of stuff. I know my limitations not to trust myself to build a model that would plan my future 40-50 years.

Glad I saw Perry's thoughts above. I'll stick with calculators or spreadsheets that people sometimes share with others.
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Old 07-09-2021, 08:30 PM   #78
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I'm a retired engineer similar to a few others here.
I never had a budget or bothered to track expenses back in my working years. But I had a decent income, saved a lot in tax-deferred off the top, and wasn't a spendaholic, so it worked out.

As I got close to retirement, the forums I read recommended recommended getting a handle on your "expenses". So I put together a detailed spreadsheet, updated many times over a period of several weeks.
I focused mainly on Basic Expenses, since discretionary travel expenses would hopefully be a lot higher in retirement.

Turned out my Basic Expenses were a modest fraction of my pre-retirement income, so I just decided: let's just aim for the same Net Monthly Income in retirement as when working, meaning that my checking account would hardly know the difference.

So I did that and my AGI and resulting income taxes have been higher than my employment years each year since retiring in 2013.

Now I do maintain a different spreadsheet in retirement to project and manage my AGI. This comes down mainly to figuring how much to Roth convert to get AGI up close to but not over the next higher Medicare IRMAA tier. I don't try to estimate income taxes or growth of my investments in this spreadsheet, just my AGI.

I do my own income taxes each year, so I know my taxes for this year will be just a bit more than last year, provided I don't do something silly and get a big jump in AGI...
Wow. I have a lot in common with this. Retired engineer, used a spreadsheet to manage my expenses, do my own taxes, etc. My wife is 20 younger than me and she opened a business so I used excel to track monthly business expenses, payroll for my wife’s workers, etc. Since I am retired, I do all the bookkeeping while my wife supervises the workers. Business taxes can get complicated but I figured it out thanks to Turbo Tax for partnerships. As far as planning for the future, planning spreadsheets are nice but “life happens” which may make a planning spreadsheet obsolete. I also use spreadsheets to manage my income producing properties but it is more expense oriented than predicting the future. Once I understand my expenses: (1) household, (2) wife’s business expenses and (3) income producing real estate expenses, I can make better strategic financial decisions…like whether I can afford to buy a $80,000 C8 Corvette.
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Old 07-09-2021, 10:41 PM   #79
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Thank you all. I have maintained a spread sheet for many years on my finances making a different version each year and possibly adjusting or adding features. Each new spread sheet incorporates the history of my inputs and calculations along with projections for the current year and projections for years to come. I take a pessimistic approach to how things will go for the year and thus each year turns out better than projected (which is what I intended to be safe.) The one new feature this year is a projection of how many years of expenses (using my current spend rate) I have if my retirement income should stop suddenly and totally (not including any increase due to inflation). The numbers will be alright even though I have had a lot of significant expenses (new heating and air, new hot water heater.)



The one thing I haven't taken into account is the fact that my wife is not a excel person and will not be able to maintain it if anything should happen to me. Then again, she will not have to worry about tracking money.


The reason for the thank you is that my wife thinks I am engineering this too much and I found that I am not alone!
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Old 07-10-2021, 01:23 AM   #80
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I mentioned previously that I don't track or project (budget) my expenditures.
My spreadsheet just tracks and projects taxable income (AGI) from various sources.

I get away with this approach in retirement by keeping a decent checking account balance around $10k or so.
Excess retirement income beyond that goes into my taxable account which is mostly stock funds, no savings account or "cash" beyond my checking account.

In year nine of retirement now, what's been happening is that excess income has been piling up nicely in that taxable account.
This is partly by design: this is where the money will come from for larger expenses, like a new car.

Due to the nearly over pandemic, my taxable account has gotten lots bigger than I might have expected, due to inability to spend $$ on travel.

Point is: none of this was forecast or projected by any spreadsheet. It's just the way it's turned out so far...
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