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Old 04-11-2021, 07:30 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by smihaila View Post
OP, unless you really crystalize those gains, your net worth increase is purely theoretical i.e. only on paper .
Absolutely what I say all the time. It is paper thin. In my mind I always think of myself as having half of my net worth.
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Old 04-11-2021, 07:40 PM   #42
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About 10 months into retirement so had about a 1/2 year of employment last year. Portfolio value has increased about $780K since my departure date at the end of June 2020.

Still adjusting AA but currently around 55/38/7. Would love to see the market continue a couple more years. That would make the last 2 years of college tuition less painful.
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Old 04-11-2021, 07:50 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by smihaila View Post
OP, unless you really crystalize those gains, your net worth increase is purely theoretical i.e. only on paper .
If I understand what you are saying, that is true for all investments. Even if you cashed your entire paper "empire" and held it in US$, it's still a variable "nut." US$ have variable "value" vs "things" purchased (inflation, country of origin, etc.)

All of us probably need to think of our nest egg as a fluid amount. I guess the reason I keep my equities to 30+% is 1) I don't need more growth than that and 2) I have at least a better idea of what I have available to me - less uncertainty about day to day or year to year market value.

Not sure if you meant anything beyond the idea that our investments (of all kinds) are never truly fixed in value (as I mentioned, not even dollars - or your favorite money.) YMMV of course.
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Old 04-11-2021, 08:43 PM   #44
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You guys are KILLING me!!! I retired one month before the 2020 crash.
But isn't the SP500 up 23% from 1/31/2020 until 3/31/2021?
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Old 04-11-2021, 10:06 PM   #45
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At only 30+% in the market, my net worth has barely doubled in the 15 years since FIRE. Not too impressive, but I sleep like a baby and rarely check my balances (once a year, maybe.) Of course, I've gone through a bunch of money during that same period, so there's that. YMMV
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The year I retired I went from 60% to 40% in the market, and down to 35% a year later. In almost 3 years my cash+investments are up 15%. my non-cash investments are up 21%. While low percentages, it is still a large six figure gain. Hitting singles is working fine for us .

Our SWR was targeted for between 2-2.5% but has turned out to be closer to something over 1%. Our net cash outflow has been 20% of what we budgeted so far. So I "missed" my forecast but I can deal with it .
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Old 04-11-2021, 10:13 PM   #46
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I got more than I started with, but not even 50%.

But I've been blowing at more than 5%.

No problem -
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Old 04-11-2021, 10:45 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by smihaila View Post
OP, unless you really crystalize those gains, your net worth increase is purely theoretical i.e. only on paper .
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Originally Posted by Digger1000 View Post
Absolutely what I say all the time. It is paper thin. In my mind I always think of myself as having half of my net worth.
I remember that Alan Greenspan once said that the value of stocks was ethereal.

Just now, searched the Web for a reference, but found none. I remember that it was roughly in the same period when Greenspan talked about "irrational exuberance". And there's a lot of references on the Web about his "irrational exuberance" quote.

Oh well, the stock value to me is still more concrete than the value of Bitcoin, or NFT. It represents the physical and intellectual assets that a corporation owns, its production output, its reputation, and market share, etc... It's more real than fiat money to me, although it may go up/down a lot.

Of course, many stocks have their value based mostly on their promises, with not much in concrete. I stay away from those.
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Old 04-11-2021, 11:22 PM   #48
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I retired 7 years ago, although I still do some part-time consulting work and I put the max I can from that into a solo-401k. My AA has drifted to 80/20 and I can't be bothered to rebalance because I'm living off rent and a small pension so I'm sanguine about the risk. I've started to gift money to my heirs to keep the value of the estate at a reasonable level.
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Old 04-12-2021, 06:20 AM   #49
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My NW is up ~200% since I quit work ~11 years ago.
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46 years old, single, no kids. Exited the job market in 2010 (age 36). Have lived solely off my investments since 2015 (age 41). No pensions.
Current AA: real estate 64% / equities 10% / fixed income 16% / cash 10%
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Old 04-12-2021, 07:17 AM   #50
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I retired 18 months ago and my financial assets are +34%. I still cannot believe this. Started with a 75/25 AA but that has drifted to 82/18 with the markets performance. I cannot stomach rebalancing with the current bond market environment. Plus, 1) with the wife still working our withdrawal rate is at .7%, and 2) That 18% in cash/short term bond funds provides 6-10 years of living expenses. Since the wife likes her gig and plans to stay at it at least another 2-3 years, am I crazy to let it ride? Anyway, it's nice to have accrued a quick 34% cushion as SORR was one of my biggest worries in pulling the plug.
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Old 04-12-2021, 03:02 PM   #51
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My NW is up ~200% since I quit work ~11 years ago.
Now you are in very good shape. Meanwhile I (the OP) am just off to a nice start.
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Old 04-12-2021, 04:37 PM   #52
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Reading this thread, an observer may come to the following conclusion:

"The sooner one takes early retirement, the sooner his portfolio can grow".
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Old 04-12-2021, 05:06 PM   #53
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Reading this thread, an observer may come to the following conclusion:

"The sooner one takes early retirement, the sooner his portfolio can grow".
I have advocated that very statement many times here on the site. I personally believe you can make more not working, but putting that lump sump/pension in your portfolio to work for you. That pension is a set number for a month etc. so it really can't grow the way it could, unless you get it working. The longer you work the short time you have to get it working.

That is my experience since I retired. There is no way I would have the money I do today, if I continued to work till now. In just about 5 years since I retired, I have averaged ~400K a year in gains/income each years for 5 years now. I could of taken that 400K each year and still have the same amount when I retired 5 years ago. I never was even close to that kind of income through the years.

That is why if you retire early, the sooner your portfolio can grow, I'm a believe in that statement.

It also could be a negative 400K a year for the last 5 years also.
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Old 04-12-2021, 05:28 PM   #54
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What if your 18-year-old son or grandson comes up to you and says "I want to retire right now, so my money can grow"?
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Old 04-12-2021, 05:44 PM   #55
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What if your 18-year-old son or grandson comes up to you and says "I want to retire right now, so my money can grow"?
Sounds a little like my 31 y.o. son.
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Old 04-12-2021, 06:16 PM   #56
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^ Lol!
If that son has the money to invest for the long haul, I would say go for it. Being realistic, I really do beleive when people can't decide if they want to retire, because they are afraid of the unknown, but have the resources to retire, they should it will work out for them. I'm a believer in getting in the game early and stay for the long haul.
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Old 04-12-2021, 06:25 PM   #57
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What if your 18-year-old son or grandson comes up to you and says "I want to retire right now, so my money can grow"?
What Money?
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Old 04-12-2021, 06:55 PM   #58
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I would like to say also, in my life and career, I have done things the unorthodox way, and my finances are no exception. Lol

In most all threads on how too, I've done the opposite or at a different angle then what the pros have done it to be successful.

I'm thinking I must have had a horseshoe in just the right place. Lol
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Old 04-12-2021, 10:25 PM   #59
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What Money?

The inheritance money that the parents or grandparents will let the youngster have early.

I think what street was talking about was that one could retire early and cash out the pension or 401k in a lump sum and invest it himself to get a better return. But if the 401k plan offers decent MFs for investment choices, then the investment return of that pot of money is not contingent on one cashing it out.

I think that myself and many posters here are simply lucky to ride the bull market of the last few years. I happened to start working full-time in 1980, at the beginning of a long bull market period till 2000. I could have done a lot better if I knew more about investing then.
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Old 04-12-2021, 10:36 PM   #60
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I'm glad I didn't get any of that early inheritance money.
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