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Old 02-14-2020, 12:59 PM   #21
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SO for me... my calculator rows are counted by my age all the way up to 100.

Then, the columns (variables) I have are:

87 Columns Wide (this data feeds into a Progress Burndown and I have a seperate spreadsheet that calculates my Asset Allocation, as seperate spreadsheet for my main residence ammortization, a seperate spreadsheet for our budget, a seperate spreadsheet for a running balance of all our accounts, a seperate spreadsheet for SSA records and calculations/accounting, a seperate spreadsheet for Taxes/year and a seperate spreadsheet to track all of our credit card rewards and apr, min spend dates, 0% ending dates etc)

BaseYr -(ie 2020)
Age -My current age
Notes -I leave little notes like the day I hit 1mil, ER date, SWR start date, RMD, SS, kids college, different tax events
BaseYrAmt -(Our Gross Income that year)
IncmGn -(The factor for our raises each year, I assume all future factors are 1 with no raise in future assuming worst case)
AnnualCOL -(The annual Cost of living $ amount based on
IRAGn% -% DW and I's combined IRAs increased/ will increase. (We assume 6% future returns for roth)
RothGn% -% DW and I's combined Roth increased/ will increase. (We assume 6% future returns for roth)
Inflation -Inflation Factor (We assume 1.03 future inflation rate)
COL+Inflation -(The amount we would need NET for Cost of Living after inflation factored in)
IRA$ -Current/future/past combined IRA $ amount
RothIRA$ -Current/future/past combined Roth$ amount
Broker$ -Current/future/past broker Roth$ amount
BckDrRoth$ -Current/future/past Roth$ amount (auto calculates future withdrawal $ amount for me based off some formula's I setup)
Sbj2RMD -the % of our total portfolio that will be subject to RMD over time
InvestableAssets -The amount of money we potentially COULD invest but might not necesarrily
Gift -Any gift$ we might recive currently 0
CurrentAsset -Our combined current assets (IRAs, Roth, Broker)
TotInvstbl -The amount of money I would/could have if I had invested the $ from InvestableAssets
TaxRt -Our current federal tax rate factor
FtrTxRt -Our future fed tax rate factor auto calculated based off other variables
StTx -State tax$
Txbl -Essentially AGI - any tax credits
TaxPd -Amount of federal tax actually paid
AfterRMD -$Total Asset balance after RMD has been taken (in the future we are still accumulating)
Equity - This one is obvious Our current real estate valuations less outstanding loan balance
NetWorth -All wrapped up, includes IRA, Roth and Real Estate...notice how this is sort of off to the right a ways, I don't really care abot NW but it is still important to track.
ActualIRA -$contributions we made to Traditional IRA
Actual401k -$contributions we made to 401k
ActualRoth -$contributions we made to Roth IRA
ActualBrkr -$contributions we made to Broker
Actl529 -$contributions we made to 529
TotActualInv - The sum of all our contributions
Gn+Cntbtn - The $increase/decrease from previous year including the contributions
Chg%PrevYr - The %increase/decrease from previous year
Net$Gn - The $increase/decrease from previous year LESS the contributions
RMD$ - The $ amount of our RMD each year
RMDw.o cnv - The amount of RMD I would have to take had I never converted to Roth (a fun reminder of tax savings)
RMDfctr -The IRS Uniform Lifetime table's factors used to calc RMD
RMD% -%of RMD vs total portfolio value
TaxSv -The $tax I save by doing roth conversions (again fun reminder of double benefit to conversions)
SWR$ -My SWR $amount that I can take each year based on SWR% factor below
SWR% -SWR % factor (currently set at 3.5% from ER age 50 until SS at 70)
AWR% -The ACTUAL withdraw SWR divided into CurrentAsset
529-1 - Our childs 529 $amount
529-1Cnt - 529 Contributions for kid1
529-2 - Our OTHER childs 529 $amount
529-2Cntr - 529 Contributions for kid1
Tuition$ - The $ we expect to pay in tuition each year if kids go out of state
TuitionState - The $ we expect to pay in tuition each year if kids go in state
AnnualSSN62 - The $ I can expect for SS if we file early at 62
SSN67 - The $ I can expect for SS if we file early at FRA
SSN70 - The $ I can expect for SS if we delay until 70
AnnualSSNSpouse62 -The $ DW can expect for SS if we file early at 62
SSN67Spouse -The $ DW can expect for SS if we file early at FRA
SSN70Spouse - The $ DW can expect for SS if we delay until 70
BothSSN70 - Our total SS $ annually
SSNaftrTax - The amount of SS we NET post-tax
EndSalaryPension - Factor needed to calc pension
SalaryIncr% - the % of just MY salary increasing used to calc pension
Pension1Starts - The date my pension check *RAISE begins
IRA-RMD -$ amount I need to pull from IRA after SS to cover my RMD
ExtraPrinciple$ -$ amount of extra principle I put towards loan that year
Property1Aprecdt $Value of main residence after appreciation
Property1Equity $amount of equity I have (appreciation - outstanding loan balance)
ActualAmmrtzn The actual $loan balance each year (to compare against my plan)
Property1Amrtztn16 - Amrt sched for 16 year
Property1Amrtztn18 - Amrt sched for 18 year
Property1Amrtztn20 - Amrt sched for 20 year
Property1Amrtztn30 - Amrt sched for 30 year ( I like to compare interst savings but have a 15yr)
Prop2Bal-18yr
Prop2-PITI-18
Prop2CashFlo
Prop2Prin
Prop2Int
Prop2Equity
Property2Aprectd
ApprecFactor
Property2Rent
RentIncrease -$amount of rent increased that year
Prop2Expns
Prop2Depr%
Property2Depr$
Inhrtnc$ $ of inheritence I might receive
IRMD_Fctr $the IRS factor for inherited IRA
IRMD $amount for the inherited Req Min Distro
IIRA_Tx$ $amount of tax I will pay on that inherited RMD


Did I miss anything?
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:25 PM   #22
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When I was putting together my ER plan back in 2006-2008, I created a spreadsheet which projected my expenses and investment income from my planned ER age (45) only to age 60. It was these years I was most concerned about (i.e. getting to age 60 intact) because I would not yet have access to SS, my frozen company pension, or have unfettered access to what would become my (rollover) IRA. I would be living only from my taxable account.


I split my expenses, calculated in more detail elsewhere, into 2 parts: medical and non-medical. I did this so I could assign separate inflation rates for each. Medical I tried inflation rates as high as 10% while keeping non-medical at 3%.


On the portfolio side, I created columns for each of my 4 main mutual funds: a stock fund, 2 existing bond funds, and a third bond fund I would soon acquire after I cashed out the company stock I had in my 401k upon leaving the company and retiring. Instead of using rates of return, I broke it down into the number of shares I owned or would own and the projected cents per share of dividends the bond funds would generate. I built into each fund the option of reinvesting or taking as cash the dividends and potential cap gain distributions (from the stock fund) as well as reinvesting any excess dividends I didn't end up spending.


Doing all of things on the investment side gave me a good idea of how my portfolio would behave from age 45-60. The spending side also looked good, although this was before the ACA and its subsidies which have greatly changed the figures.


I still use the spreadsheet but it's more to replace projected years with actual data to see how things are shaping up. At this point, only 4 years from 60, I am no longer concerned about getting to age 60 intact. I will.
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:52 PM   #23
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And the greatest thing? Being FIRED I actually have the time to burn all day building this
I did all my planning on company time

I had never heard of FireCalc, so I just invented it as I went. Then when I found this forum, and FireCalc, I plugged in my numbers and it pretty much agreed with my results.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:52 PM   #24
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When I retired, I had not heard of FireCalc. So we just winged it on our own.

We knew how much we were spending to support ourselves, and my pension exceeds that amount. So we figured that we could afford to retire.

We are accustomed to itemizing our tax filing every year. and I have not paid into Income Taxation since 1983, so we did not consider taxes in our plans.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:27 PM   #25
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Perhaps I was too wordy, but I am still trying to understand why one would model investment returns seperately from cost of living aka inflation adjustment?

For example, let's say I am assuming my portfolio will have a real (inflation adjusted) return of 6% over time (9 pct nominal and 3% inflation. Is it productive to model your cost inputs as growing at 3% and investment returns at 9%?

I do not see a reason to do this unless you just want to play with some unusual relationships between investment returns and inflation, which I would view as not predictable with any accuracy.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:47 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Montecfo View Post
Perhaps I was too wordy, but I am still trying to understand why one would model investment returns seperately from cost of living aka inflation adjustment?

For example, let's say I am assuming my portfolio will have a real (inflation adjusted) return of 6% over time (9 pct nominal and 3% inflation. Is it productive to model your cost inputs as growing at 3% and investment returns at 9%?

I do not see a reason to do this unless you just want to play with some unusual relationships between investment returns and inflation, which I would view as not predictable with any accuracy.
If nothing else, it documents the assumptions you are making. Those are both pretty important values, so maybe you want to clearly see that you modeled this at 9% return and 3% inflation. You might also have other runs of the spreadsheet with different assumptions.

Also, and I'm not clear whether the math works this way and don't feel like figuring it out this evening, but the return works on your entire portfolio, while expenses are a yearly amount. Does 4% investment growth with 2% inflation work the same as 10% growth with 8% inflation? At different withdrawal rates?
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:09 AM   #27
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If nothing else, it documents the assumptions you are making. Those are both pretty important values, so maybe you want to clearly see that you modeled this at 9% return and 3% inflation. You might also have other runs of the spreadsheet with different assumptions.

Also, and I'm not clear whether the math works this way and don't feel like figuring it out this evening, but the return works on your entire portfolio, while expenses are a yearly amount. Does 4% investment growth with 2% inflation work the same as 10% growth with 8% inflation? At different withdrawal rates?
You are correct. But using the real return and not inflation-adjusting your expenses is thus conservative. You would show larger assets over if you model nominal returns and inflated costs (assuming investment returns exceed inflation).

But you will not model outliving your money in either case, unless you assume investment returns are less than inflation for an extended period. And I am not sure why anyone would model that in a static spreadsheet. To me that is more the purpose of firecalc and Monte Carlo.

But I have now convinced myself that modelling investment returns nominally and expenses with inflation is more accurate, though it does not for my purposes (do I have enough money?) provide more information.

I definitely clearly document investment return assumptions.
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Old 02-15-2020, 08:56 AM   #28
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You might want to look also at Flexible Retirement Planner (there is a free version) and see if you find anything in there you might not have thought of. That is one of the only calculators I found where I could do a lot of start/stop income/expense items and fine tune inflation/tax rates, etc. I have a lot of items listed under additional inputs, including that I assume my health care costs extra $6k/yr+inflation until I hit 65 and I can list my mortgage separate which has zero inflation, and I have lines for ROTH conversions, etc.

There is a Detailed View tab that shows the breakdown by year, then you can also turn on "show more detail" and it gives more detail of taxes owed, etc.
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Old 02-15-2020, 10:30 AM   #29
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You are correct. But using the real return and not inflation-adjusting your expenses is thus conservative. You would show larger assets over if you model nominal returns and inflated costs (assuming investment returns exceed inflation).

But you will not model outliving your money in either case, unless you assume investment returns are less than inflation for an extended period. And I am not sure why anyone would model that in a static spreadsheet. To me that is more the purpose of firecalc and Monte Carlo.

But I have now convinced myself that modelling investment returns nominally and expenses with inflation is more accurate, though it does not for my purposes (do I have enough money?) provide more information.

I definitely clearly document investment return assumptions.
I have a spreadsheet which models my RMD situation out into the future some 35 years or so.

In it, I chose to set a rate of change on my investments, on my Social Security, on the tax brackets, and on the IRMAA rates and brackets.

Since there were at least three different rates involved, I chose to do it all in nominal terms. I was concerned that using relative real rates might miss some sort of interaction between all those numbers.

My main FIRE spreadsheet is also all in nominal terms, for similar reasons.
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Old 02-15-2020, 10:49 AM   #30
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Just want to say how cool this forum is and how incredibly helpful. There are some absolute experts on this board that have helped me immensely.

I originally posted this thread to help those investigating FIRE to see what I did and be encouraged or give them something to think about. But I quickly see that there are several things I didn't think through and this board was great to help tune what I put together.

Thanks to all - amazing help!
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Old 02-15-2020, 11:10 AM   #31
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Also, and I'm not clear whether the math works this way and don't feel like figuring it out this evening, but the return works on your entire portfolio, while expenses are a yearly amount. Does 4% investment growth with 2% inflation work the same as 10% growth with 8% inflation? At different withdrawal rates?
A higher nominal rate of growth will lead to higher relative taxes on assets that are not price-indexed, such as capital gains. It will also lead to higher local taxes, such as property tax. In some cases it will lower the value of deductions.
To keep the same net real return after tax, a higher nominal rate of return requires a greater outperformance compared with a lower inflation / return.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:01 PM   #32
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I've got a few homegrown spreadsheets that are similar.
I've also run most of the retirement calculators out there.

I found, as I was getting the confidence to retire, that different calculators uncovered different areas of risk... My three favorite retirement calculators are (in order): firecalc, quicken lifetime planner, and fidelity retirement planner.

Firecalc gives historical stock/bond/inflation cycles... so it uncovers issues if you assume too low of inflation, or too high (or too long) of returns. It allows income changes like social security and pensions coming online. It allows for one time spending hits (kids weddings? trip of a lifetime? buying a dream home?)

Quicken lifetime planner allows for spending for college for kids (a factor for our household because we were late to the parenting game) and the things listed above - but does not do a historical back testing... uses a fixed return/inflation.

Fidelity was the most pessimistic - but you can inflate different things at different rates - for example healthcare can be inflated at a higher rate. But you can only do this if you drill down into the budget, vs using a lump spending amount.

An advantage of a spreadsheet is you can vary things like tax rates... because those can and do change in big ways.

After 5 1/2 years of retirement I'm pretty confident I'm ok - but I still run the various calculators /spreadsheets around 1x year... just to make sure I'm still on track.
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Old 02-15-2020, 03:12 PM   #33
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I still run about 5 calculators multiple times a year.
Although we are at 100% on each calculator where applicable, our maximum spending runs only around 10% above our actual spending, so SORR is still a real possibility at 2.5 years of retirement.
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Old 02-15-2020, 05:25 PM   #34
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Pralana looks intersting but we only have Google sheets. Any suggestions other than buy excel?
Try libreoffice: https://www.libreoffice.org/

Free Office software
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:18 PM   #35
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For my base retirement planning I used Quicken Lifetime Planner.... it is pretty comprehensive, easy-to-use and intuitive and covers a lot of bases. Just before I decided to retire I supplemented it with every free retirement planner on the planet (or at least so it seemed)... including FIRECalc and all the usual suspects... mainly to overlay a stochastic stress test over QLP since QLP is a deterministic planner. I also had my own home-grown Excel spreadsheet with conservative assumptions. Everything gave me various versions of a green light.... so off I went.

I'm pleased to report that our current nestegg is 129% of what I predicted... and that is after some huge withdrawals for a winter condo paid for in cash and replacing our one-car garage with a two-car garage with bonus loft/"she cave".... of course, market returns have been 187% of what I assumed so that helped big time.... thank you Mr. Market.

These days I'm less concerned with portfolio survivability given where we are and the flexibility in our spending. I'm more focused to optimizing taxes since that is the biggest lever that I can control... and that is more toward survivors and heirs.
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:38 AM   #36
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how are you modeling medical expenses and taxes in retirement?
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:18 AM   #37
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^^^ In my Excel modeling health insurance were separate line items (one for pre-medicare and the other for Medicare) and each had separate and different inflation (5%) from the catch-all of living expenses (3%). However, pre-Medicare health insurance has ended up being much lower than I expected when I retired... about 40% lower. OTOH, it looks like Medicare (includes Part B, Part D and Medigap) will be a lot more than I expected. It all evens out.

I included taxes in living expenses in my Excel model, but in QLP it is a separate input... and the 15% that I used has been on the high side.

FWIW, if you use QLP you could define medical separately as an expense adjustment and give it its own inflation rate.
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Old 02-17-2020, 11:15 AM   #38
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Yes, great way to learn and fill the ER time, but I've found Pralana, built on Excel, covered all these requirements and more. Far more granular than firecalc. After using it, I quickly realized that as much as I'd like to build my own Excel spreadsheet to handle my situation, it would be quite an effort to catch up to Pralana's features and I've built many Excel applications in the past. If nothing else, you could check out the free version to validate some of your work.

I ended up buying Pralana (and Excel to run it). It is well worth the purchase price. It models taxes, optimizes social security and Roth conversions, and has other sensitivity analyses built in. All of these functionalities would have taken us hours upon hours to build ourselves. Highly recommend it.
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Old 02-17-2020, 04:07 PM   #39
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I built a tax estimator into my spreadsheet to include future changes such as dependent changes, standard dedcution changes, various deductible item changes, etc. I update each year as tax rates and or brackets change. I have the tax forms modelled.

I model the withdrawals from qualified retirement plans and use FIRECALC every few years to see what I can see.

Like someone said, I learned a lot about numbers, which as we all know are HARD! LOL
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Old 02-18-2020, 01:58 AM   #40
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Question: when considering inflation in your projections, do you take into account that not everything inflates at the same rate? Some expenses are growing faster the historical 3.25% average rate ROI (rate of inflation) and way more than the Feds target rate of 2%. One could argue that in order to get an accurate look at the real effect of inflation on future expenses, you have to tweak your inflation rates for each of the recurring/necessary expenses you will maintain in retirement, until death. Does anyone do this or do most just use the historical 3.25% average ROI?
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