New Retirement Pessimistic scenario?

[qwerty3656]

It gives me a 15% chance of success. I've run a handful of different calculators and always seemed to come out with room to spare (e.g. Fidelity, firecalc), but New Retirement (pessimistic) has me out on the street pan handling.

 

[Spock]

I just ran it (basic at newretirement.com?) and it was stupidly optimistic.
From the first glance it looks like it's just a front skin on one of the shared calculator sites.

 

[madatrub]

It does some wild stuff with Healthcare costs, I noticed. When i first set it up, I was getting the 15% success rate, too, but their pessimistic returns are extraordinarily low (like 2%). When I put more appropriate ranges in for the free trial, it was similar to what I've seen in Fido and FIRECalc

 

[qwerty3656]

I just ran it (basic at newretirement.com?) and it was stupidly optimistic.
From the first glance it looks like it's just a front skin on one of the shared calculator sites.

The default is the Optimistic scenario, but you can change to the Pessimistic scenario

 

[ncbill]

The default is the Optimistic scenario, but you can change to the Pessimistic scenario

Under Pessimistic I also get 15% but that's to age 100.

Still don't run out of money until age 95 in the above, so I figure I'm fine.

Medical expenses age 65 to age 100 also seem high: $600k for me, $800k for spouse for traditional Medicare, Medigap, & drug plan.

 

[jebmke]

Under Pessimistic I also get 15% but that's to age 100.

Still don't run out of money until age 95 in the above, so I figure I'm fine.

Medical expenses age 65 to age 100 also seem high: $600k for me, $800k for spouse for traditional Medicare, Medigap, & drug plan.

Perhaps it is assuming nursing home or assisted living care in that data. Still seems high.

No chance I will go into a nursing home. I'll get someone to roll me off the dock first.

 

[walkinwood]

Does the engine behind NewRetirement use historical data for investments & inflation?

 

[qwerty3656]

Does the engine behind NewRetirement use historical data for investments & inflation?

I don't think so. I think it assumes a flat % (2% return for pessimistic). I'm not sure how it adjusts inflation for the various scenarios.

 

[walkinwood]

Thank you.

 

[G-Man]

I don't think so. I think it assumes a flat % (2% return for pessimistic). I'm not sure how it adjusts inflation for the various scenarios.

For the PlannerPlus version (paid version), you can adjust what your optimistic and pessimistic rate of return.

 

[KarenC]

It gives me a 15% chance of success. I've run a handful of different calculators and always seemed to come out with room to spare (e.g. Fidelity, firecalc), but New Retirement (pessimistic) has me out on the street pan handling.

Same here, with the free version. The New Retirement estimate is such an outlier my impulse is to ignore it.

 

[CRLLS]

Frankly, I'm not going to sign up just to try out their product. I don't see any way into the calculator without creating an account. I don't want to have another account out in cyberspace.

As they say, "If you aren't paying for the product, you are the product."