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08-07-2008, 01:03 PM
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#41
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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30 year mortgage rates are based on the 10 year t-bill plus a premium. the 10 year has gone from 3.7% or so to the low 4%'s in the last year, but the trend is up since 2005
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08-07-2008, 01:07 PM
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#42
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,433
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
30 year mortgage rates are based on the 10 year t-bill plus a premium. the 10 year has gone from 3.7% or so to the low 4%'s in the last year, but the trend is up since 2005
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I think you mean 10 year T-Note, as there has never been such a thing as a 10-year T-bill. 
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08-07-2008, 01:08 PM
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#43
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BunsGettingFirm
Where is this huge wave of first-time buyers? In the Gen-Ys, the new immigrants, or what? I hope you're right, but please provide some explanation.
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people do want to buy homes, but no one wants to pay more than 30% of gross income. 2005 some markets especially in california the median house was 10 times income
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50% of Fannie Mae's Losses were Alt-A Mortgages
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08-08-2008, 08:23 AM
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#44
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
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50% of Fannie Mae's Losses were Alt-A Mortgages
Quote:
Originally Posted by lets-retire
Many of the people who have the Alt-A loans are a bit better off and have a better paying job (read more responsible and less likely to just walk away). The "investors" who obtained these loans have for the most part left the Alt-A market.
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50% of Fannie Mae's losses in the second quarter of 2008 were from Alt-A mortgage loans, while only 11% of Fannie's mortgages were ALT-A as of June 30.
Free Preview - WSJ.com
Ladelfina pointed us to an interesting link in a post on this thread that shows that a much higher percentage of these Alt-A loans are non-owner occupied. With so many of these loans being rentals, it should come as as no surprise that Alt-A's currently account for half of FNMA's recent losses.
Calculated Risk: Alt-A: The New Home of Subprime?
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08-08-2008, 08:27 AM
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#45
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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FNMA requires you to disclose if you are buying as an investor, but back in 2003-2005 i used to read mortgage brokers would tell people to just lie on the application because no one would ever find out
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08-08-2008, 08:47 AM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,798
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Retire Soon--I think I might have confused what has happened compared to what is happening in the mortgage market.
al--There has been rather strict guidelines for the issuance of mortgages with banks. Enforcement of the regulations would/could have prevented much of the mess we are currently in. The DW denied many loans during the height of the craze because it was obvious the borrower was not being honest on the application. Much of the problem is a result of the borrowers not reading the information provided, lying, or allowing the originator to fudge paperwork designed to protect the borrower.
__________________
You don't want to work. You want to live like a king, but the big bad world don't owe you a thing. Get over it--The Eagles
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08-08-2008, 01:52 PM
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#47
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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At the risk of repetition, if you want to really know what is happening in the housing market and the economy in general, frequently visit
The Housing Bubble Blog
You're not going to like it.
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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08-08-2008, 02:12 PM
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#48
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,798
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Thanks, but instead of going to a blog, which is nothing more than an opinion, I think I'll pay attention to a bit more reliable information.
__________________
You don't want to work. You want to live like a king, but the big bad world don't owe you a thing. Get over it--The Eagles
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08-09-2008, 01:31 AM
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#49
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
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lets-retire, why don't you take a look at the blog content before making pronouncements? This particular blog is basically zero opinion: it is a compendium of excerpts from current published housing-related news articles, often with plenty of stats. (I'd have to say it is the most opinion-free blog I have ever encountered! If you want opinions you'll find plenty in the comments, though.)
I'm not sure where you think you will get more 'reliable information'.. maybe you could share that with us?
It's not a particularly easy format to read through, though, and I prefer Calculated Risk on housing-- a little more focused and less repetitive.
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08-09-2008, 05:08 AM
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#50
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,798
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I did look at it. It looks like sound bite news to me. Almost anybody can find a quote to support thier opinion, even take it out of context.
__________________
You don't want to work. You want to live like a king, but the big bad world don't owe you a thing. Get over it--The Eagles
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08-09-2008, 12:37 PM
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#51
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lets-retire
I did look at it. It looks like sound bite news to me. Almost anybody can find a quote to support thier opinion, even take it out of context.
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I understand your point of view on blogs. Most are mere opinion. But take a look at this one. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog It is research based and all the facts are sourced to well recognized media. As a university writing instructor, I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner.
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08-09-2008, 01:21 PM
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#52
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner.
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In MLA style I trust. 
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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08-09-2008, 01:51 PM
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#53
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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What the hell is he taking donations for a blog? LOL..ok 
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08-09-2008, 01:53 PM
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#54
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Guess the Google ads weren't working.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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08-09-2008, 01:54 PM
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#55
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Oh maybe this quality research takes a good deal of money. My mistake.
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08-09-2008, 03:37 PM
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#56
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
I understand your point of view on blogs. Most are mere opinion. But take a look at this one. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog It is research based and all the facts are sourced to well recognized media. As a university writing instructor, I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner. |
And in Dr. Housing Bubble Blogs own words.....
"The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) who may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above."
Bubble Blog Buyer Beware!
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08-09-2008, 04:20 PM
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#57
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Looking at things from the other side of the coin...
...does anyone here put much stock in information that comes from politicians, bureaucrats or the main stream media?
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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08-09-2008, 06:57 PM
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#58
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 37
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I'm right in the middle of this mortgage mess. Everyday I have to deal with delinquent loans. Interest rates and subprime borrowers have very little to do with the rise in foreclosures. Loan to value is the main culprit. Most of the subprime borrowers had high loan to value loans and when house prices plummeted were left owing more than the house was worth.
In California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, many borrowers are 40% underwater. Ethics aside, the best choice is to turn in the keys. The scary thing is that homes are still substantially overvalued from a historic perspective. Like the tech bubble, this housing crisis still has a long way to go before it gets better.
As for a second wave of alt A borrowers going into foreclosure, it will happen. It has already started and if values drop more, many more of these borrowers will choose to walk away from a bad investment. Most these borrowers can make their payments, but like subprime borrowers, choose not to.
In my opinion, the only option in the short term would be banks reducing loan amounts. Some are already doing this and it is a hard pill to swallow. Regardless, this crisis will end and house prices will rise, but not this year and probably not next.
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08-09-2008, 07:53 PM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siamamerican
In California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, many borrowers are 40% underwater.
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That would be surprising since many areas havent declined by that much, and most borrowers in the borrower universe didnt buy or refinance during the peak period.
Could it be possible that in the borrower universe, some total morons who had their loans done by complete idiots in 2004-2005 are 40% underwater?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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08-09-2008, 07:57 PM
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#60
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
Looking at things from the other side of the coin...
...does anyone here put much stock in information that comes from politicians, bureaucrats or the main stream media?
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Actually I think there is a grain of truth in most sources. The danger is when you find one source and claim it as gospel
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