Newly Retired & Survived First Bear Market

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market. Think 1970s; inflation, stagnant economy, energy price shocks, but add worldwide food shortages, climate change effects, and extreme geopolitical uncertainty as well. Possible shooting wars with the two other superpowers.

There's also downsides to all that; but I don't want to be too negative.

[RetiredAt49]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market.

Duly noted…. Guess I should have titled this thread “… still surviving bear market” [emoji16]

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market. ...

or possibly we're not. Most likely we're not.

[Lawrence of Suburbia]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter or possibly we're not. Most likely we're not.

Trust me, I hope you're right. I retired in 2018 with barely 25x, a "4% Rule"-style retirement; I probably wouldn't survive a 1930s or 1970s scenario.

But this is only my own "wall of worry" ...

[MarieIG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 Duly noted…. Guess I should have titled this thread “… still surviving bear market” [emoji16]

Hmm

[Franklin]

I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts
to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily).

wait till
1) the fed says their done
2) inflation starts to decline
3) Dollar falls
4)

[FREE866]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franklin I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily). wait till 1) the fed says their done 2) inflation starts to decline 3) Dollar falls 4)

I think it always feels different. If this feels more different than other times I think it's because of the ubiquity of 24/7 news, social media, etc


I do know that based on history "waiting to see what happens" or "waiting to see things settling down first" usually can be a very expensive decision. Sentiment can change...sometimes very quickly....as Marty Zweig used to say bull markets follow bear markets and begin with "violent rallies". Page always turns.

[GravitySucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FREE866 I think it always feels different. If this feels more different than other times I think it's because of the ubiquity of 24/7 news, social media, etc Page always turns.

It may not be completely different this time but stocks and bonds have only both been negative for a year twice since 1926. Both years were before most of us were investors, 1931 and 1969. Looks like 2022 will be number 3.
Less than 10% of quarters since '26 have been negative in both stocks and bonds.

https://www.callan.com/blog-archive/...bond-declines/

I have no clue what to do about it so I'll plug along at 60/40, rebalance and keep my spending a bit low for now.

[RetiredAt49]

Still surviving the bear [emoji199]

[JackJester]

hmmm. 'How low can you go?’
"Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days."

If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

[RetiredAt49]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackJester hmmm. 'How low can you go?’ "Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days." If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

I signed up for the ride so holding steady….

[DrRoy]

Quote:

I don't post much but when i do it is for a reason. Ive dropped $2MM from the market high. It hurts to see that but I was a bit overfunded anyway. Ive slowly moved into cash (now 30% of my investable assets). I don't think that allocation makes sense long term but Ive decided to see where this rout goes. I think the key is to have a few years expenses in cash and be ready to move back in when it makes sense. The real question is when is that? Ive been thru several downturns but this one seems totally different and sneaky. Don't trust those who tell you this is like XXXXXX. this market is totally different than any Ive seen. ( and I am 66 and in the investment world daily). wait till 1) the fed says their done 2) inflation starts to decline 3) Dollar falls 4)

I wouldn't say this is different at all. The Fed is raising rates, a recession is feared, and the market falls. That has happened often. The bottom will almost certainly happen before any of the above do, and then it is even harder to pick a re-entry point.

[MarieIG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 Still surviving the bear [emoji199]

Ahhh yes. I retired the same time as you did. Not my first bear - but my first bear as a retired person; so I have plenty of time to contemplate the ramifications . . . As a working person, I did not give it too much thought from a financial perspective.

I did prepare for SORR prior to retirement, but did not anticipate this level of inflation. I suppose I should have, but am not sure what I would have done differently.

[MarieIG]

Recently, I have had a rather persistent mental image of a large bear bouncing around on a pogo stick. (Other people have songs in the head, me the bouncing bear.)

It is anticipated that - YMMV.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackJester hmmm. 'How low can you go?’ "Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928: There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days." If we think we're average then we have about 11% lower to go: Today's S&P500 YTD -24.62%.

I used the 35% average down as my re-entry point in 2020. It worked well then. I am holding out for the same now. So there is likely more pain ahead and it all could happen before the end of October.

[gcgang]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarieIG Recently, I have had a rather persistent mental image of a large bear bouncing around on a pogo stick. (Other people have songs in the head, me the bouncing bear.) It is anticipated that - YMMV.

Now if we can get the Bear to show up on the cover of whatever magazines still publish, the bottom should be near.

[Big_Hitter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetiredAt49 Curious to hear your perspective/thoughts especially if this was your first bear market... Hopefully nobody pulled out of the market because (fingers crossed) it's headed back up!

the key to survive market shocks is to avoid tapping into distressed assets

[thepalmersinking]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrence of Suburbia One must also consider that we're possibly now beginning the next few legs down of a long, grinding bear market. Think 1970s; inflation, stagnant economy, energy price shocks, but add worldwide food shortages, climate change effects, and extreme geopolitical uncertainty as well. Possible shooting wars with the two other superpowers. There's also downsides to all that; but I don't want to be too negative.

What climate change effects?

[MarieIG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcgang Now if we can get the Bear to show up on the cover of whatever magazines still publish, the bottom should be near.