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10-10-2008, 02:14 PM
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#41
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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The guy Jeff on SSI that I mentioned on another thread said that the economy has been bad for a long time, but nothing ever gets done until the rich feel it. Now the rich are feeling it. He is happy that gas prices are going down.
Interesting POV.
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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10-10-2008, 02:35 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Just went out to run an errand and can report a $2.99 sighting here in town.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-10-2008, 03:33 PM
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#43
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 6,924
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Bought gas today: $2.799/gal (that's with the Kroger card .15/gal discount).
__________________
"Knowin' no one nowhere's gonna miss us when we're gone..."
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10-10-2008, 10:35 PM
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#44
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
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Wow, those are really low gas prices! It's been dropping rapidly here too but it's still above $3 (3.04 at last look this evening) and we're usually at or close to the cheapest region for gas (MO). I guess it's moving so quickly that lots of things are out of whack.
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10-10-2008, 11:28 PM
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#45
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 622
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
If we have a permanent recession, I suppose so- but isn't a long resession what Bernanke has spent his life learning how to avoid? And at $75, there are many profitable oil and gas and service investments.
Ha
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Maybe he shouldn't have spent so much time studying economic policies that failed and a bit more time studying policies that were successful?
I have confidence that Bernanke will do everything in his power to ruin the economy but will get a pass because of his good intentions. How long until the interest rate is cut to less than one percent?
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10-11-2008, 12:11 AM
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#46
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marquette
Leave for work Wednesday: $3.29 a gallon. Come home: $3.19. Leave for work Thursday: $3.09. Come home: $2.99. Leave for work Friday: $2.69
Forget dropping like a rock... a rock won't drop faster once it reaches terminal velocity.
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That can't all be for the same gas station. You're saying the price fell 4 times in 48hrs? I thought they could only change the price once in a 24 hour period. Maybe that's only Wisconsin but I thought it was a national law.
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10-11-2008, 10:50 PM
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#47
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronc879
That can't all be for the same gas station. You're saying the price fell 4 times in 48hrs? I thought they could only change the price once in a 24 hour period. Maybe that's only Wisconsin but I thought it was a national law.
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I witnessed the same thing here in small town MO on Thurs/Fri. It fell from 3.24 early Thurs afternoon to 3.19 at about 5 pm, and then down to 3.14 two hrs later. On Fri at 5 pm is was 3.10 and then 3.04 later that night at 10 pm. I don't know if it fell again today!
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10-12-2008, 07:37 AM
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#48
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frugality_of_Apathy
Maybe he shouldn't have spent so much time studying economic policies that failed and a bit more time studying policies that were successful?
I have confidence that Bernanke will do everything in his power to ruin the economy but will get a pass because of his good intentions. How long until the interest rate is cut to less than one percent?
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Well old Jimmy Rodgers wasn't very cheerful. He says we are better off just letting everything collapse and have a global depression. Then we can have a bottom and start from there. A little early for my medication. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-12-2008, 01:50 PM
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#49
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Texas
Posts: 216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Another interesting thing which I can't really interpret is that the stand alone refiners are getting killed in the market. If they are making a lot on money, it seems that the market can't see it yet.
Ha
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Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com
I tried to put the chart in my reply but could not get it to work. Gas and oil historically chart along right next to each other. In August of 07, due to various shenanigans, oil took off and gasoline did not. There was never any sound reason for oil to be over $100 per barrel. The crack spreads have been in the toilet ever since. Hence the low stock prices on stand alone refiners. The gas prices will fall slower than oil because it went up slower and never caught up. Most refinery stocks are at about 1/3 to 1/2 price from 2007. Shenanigans put them there and hysteria is keeping them there. They are cheaper than they have been in a very long time. They are a screaming buy right now. People are not going to quit driving and no new refineries are being built.
2fer
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Women and cats will do as they please, and men and dogs should relax and get used to the idea.<br />-Robert A. Heinlein
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10-16-2008, 10:12 AM
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#50
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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inventories came out today and oil is dipping below $70
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10-16-2008, 10:30 AM
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#51
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg54
Well old Jimmy Rodgers wasn't very cheerful. He says we are better off just letting everything collapse and have a global depression. Then we can have a bottom and start from there.
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Easy for a billionaire to say. No matter how hard it collapsed, he'd be fine.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-16-2008, 01:10 PM
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#52
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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him and pickens are probably losing a ton of money on their commodity trades
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10-16-2008, 04:40 PM
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#53
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
him and pickens are probably losing a ton of money on their commodity trades
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I've been crying for them all day. Unfortunately, my w*rking fate is tied to the economy and the price of oil. I can see my retirement coming over the hill as I type.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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10-16-2008, 08:42 PM
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#54
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 323
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ICE Exchange
Brent crude today on the ICE exchange for November 08, $66.31 per barrel.
boont
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10-16-2008, 08:49 PM
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#55
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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signed up for a trading newsletter today to get some tips from people who have more time to devote to this. I've been following this guy for over a year and reading his free stuff that is a summary of the paid but with a lag. he's very good at predicting 90% or so of pretty much every market move including today's rally before it happens.
he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
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10-16-2008, 09:26 PM
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#56
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
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I got out of my shorts at the low 90's and haven't been paying much attention to it for the last week or so. I really believed that oil was going to unwind but I have to admit that the speed and depth were much more than I thought possible. $90-ish seemed like good bottom, and it tried to hold there for a while but it dropped past that and has been taking the elevator down since then. Perhaps it overshot a little with a stronger dollar and general panic in the markets - I don't know at the moment.
Rally to $110? That's doable, I think, but I'm not sure about soon. Down to $50? I think we're more likely to see that before we see $110 again. OPECC will try and hold the line with some production cuts, but I'm not sure if there will be a consensus or how successful they will be. And then up to $150 by next year? That's interesting. Again, it's possible, but the timeline sure seems short. But things seem to be moving at light speed recently so I won't say it's not going to happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
signed up for a trading newsletter today to get some tips from people who have more time to devote to this. I've been following this guy for over a year and reading his free stuff that is a summary of the paid but with a lag. he's very good at predicting 90% or so of pretty much every market move including today's rally before it happens.
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I would love to look at the free stuff if it's on line. Do you have a link?
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
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10-17-2008, 07:04 AM
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#57
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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when i looked at the USO and oil charts i thought $150 in July was the peak with a rally to $90 - $110 and then a bottom at $60. that would set up a nice head and shoulders and then a drop.
they way he is saying it we'll get a fast rally from $50 to $150 that will set up a double top and the bottom could be as low as $50 over the next few years
with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
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10-17-2008, 04:43 PM
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#58
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
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With oil dropping, very bad for hybrids. 
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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10-17-2008, 04:51 PM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
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There is a need for hybrids, but I don't see everyone going that route anytime soon. For one, they cost more than many are willing to pay. Maybe in time that will get worked out.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-17-2008, 04:54 PM
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#60
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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and also all the alternative energy stuff... We are caught in a vicious cycle. Rebirth of the big/bad/mean 10-cyl SUV?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more rounds of up/down before I die. I will get back into Canadian tar sand companies again. Just don't know when yet.
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