 |
Oil up $25 a barrel today?
09-22-2008, 12:47 PM
|
#1
|
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 474
|
Oil up $25 a barrel today?
I woke up from my nap to see this hadline as I logged in to check e-mail. Could this be an unintended consequence of stopping short trading?
Oil spikes $25 a barrel on anxiety over US bailout - Yahoo! News
|
|
|
 |
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
|
09-22-2008, 01:15 PM
|
#2
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
|
More likely it's a result of the US Mint printing presses going 24/7.
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 01:23 PM
|
#3
|
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Oklahoma City
Posts: 292
|
 Quote:
Originally Posted by eridanus
More likely it's a result of the US Mint printing presses going 24/7.
|
Agreed.... The value of the the dollar worldwide is going to continue to slump with this "bailout" . I sure hate passing this pain onto another generation.
__________________
USAF Veteran -- Retired Air National Guard -- OSW -- ONW -- OIF
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 01:59 PM
|
#4
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,475
|
I can put downward pressure on a stock by owning it, but I can't stop the Fed from printing an infinite money supply. I seem to have hit my limits. Sorry, folks...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:05 PM
|
#5
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,448
|
This is a classic short squeeze, yes there is concern about inflationary pressure but the main driver today was too many shorts trying to cover their position before the front-month contracts are closed out.
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:34 PM
|
#6
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
I agree with soupcxan.
I don't agree with how it's hit the financial press. It was a news headline on the radio ("UP 25% WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO OUR FRAGILE ECONOMY  ?" almost a panic shout. The 9/11 impacts were more subdued.). I turned on CNBC when I got to where I was going and it was a big topic but the short squeeze was mentioned. We should see oil about $15 lower tomorrow based on the November futures. Spot didn't budge. Refinery margins are currently very tight due to continuing poor demand (not inside info but somehow nobody seems to hear this). This ultimately means crude will continue to fall unless somehow the economy magically begins growing at 10%.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:40 PM
|
#7
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,076
|
Those dumb shorts!
Audrey
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:44 PM
|
#8
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Those dumb shorts!
Audrey
|
Been there, done that, couldn't afford the T-shirt. 
You really don't know "tense" until you're on the wrong side of a short squeeze. I don't play in that sandbox anymore. 
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:45 PM
|
#9
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,475
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Those dumb shorts!
Audrey
|
Seemed like a good day to close out my USO position, but as soon as I do that, oil would go to $200 and y'all would hate me...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 02:52 PM
|
#10
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Seemed like a good day to close out my USO position, but as soon as I do that, oil would go to $200 and y'all would hate me...
|
USO went up but I don't know how much of USO might have been tied up in the latest contract. The other contracts went up between $5 and $6 which is consistent with the spot prices. Who knows what tomorrow might bring?
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 04:24 PM
|
#11
|
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Seemed like a good day to close out my USO position, but as soon as I do that, oil would go to $200 and y'all would hate me...
|
Hang on to it Ziggy! We're counting on ya to help keep our energy costs down 
__________________
"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 04:55 PM
|
#12
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,739
|
Ziggy, thanks for the help.
You can't hold yourself responsible to everything though.
When you have had enough, sell. You gave us a little reprieve and it is appreciated 
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 05:24 PM
|
#13
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Ziggy is slacking.
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 05:55 PM
|
#14
|
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Seemed like a good day to close out my USO position, but as soon as I do that, oil would go to $200 and y'all would hate me...
|
USO will hit around $90 -$92 and will probably go back down from there
|
|
|
|
|
09-22-2008, 07:22 PM
|
#15
|
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,076
|
From a Morningstar discussion thread:
Quote:
It was all about a temporary shortfall of physical oil. WTI is a midwest (landlocked) crude that can only be consumed in the midwest (it cannot even come to the GC). The P/L from USGC to midwest that carry crude are rigged to flow north from US Gulf coast to midwest. They cannot be easily reversed. Hurricane IKE had disrupted a few of the refineries and their main crude P/L (Capline) was also down for a few days because of hurricane's impact, so no foreign crude flowed north.
One or 2 midwest refiners tried to buy small parcels of physical WTI crude and bid up the prices. Since October contract was expiring, the NYMEX volume was already thin and there is no "rolling" that demand because refiners needed crude NOW. Thus, Oct contract closed at $121, but Nov (now the new front month) closed at 109 & change. They don't need Nov volume because the foreign crudes will fill that void coming up from Capline. Hope that helps ... Anil
|
Audrey
|
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
Search this Thread |
|
|
|
| Display Modes |
 Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|
