OK, I'll say it

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 Hey, I've actually got one stock up today, NM. And it wasn't any stinking broker who recommended it. Now if I can just remember who did.:confused:

I think that was one of Brewer's.

Ha

[Kronk]

Even though I've got a quarter mil in the market (okay, only 200k in stocks), I'm hoping for a long bear market. In my 30's, in my accumulation phase, if it stays low over the next 10 years while I keep socking money, I should be in good shape.

That is, as long as I can keep my current income...

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan .... and use your windfall to invest in a bear market.

I have been considering that! Now, if only I had the psychic capabilities required to detect when we have hit bottom.

I'll probably just keep DCA'ing into the market, since it seems to be allowing me to sleep at night. That will mean monthly equity investments until 2009. Still, the bear market could be with us, or perhaps even worse, in 2009.

[retire@40]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rs0460a If you are concerned about this current "contraction" and are retired, I would have to respond that you haven't financially prepared yourself for retirement (in a good manner).

I would agree with that too (that's why I didn't make the commitment yet )

I'm not even close to panic mode yet since I have many years of cash in FDIC bank accounts and I have (even today) enough in my portfolio to sustain a higher than bare bones budget. Yet, I'm glad I still have a self-employed revenue stream outside my portfolio that I can ramp up whenever I want, even though I will do my best not to.

Although even those with a portfolio giving off a comfortable 4% SWR with some fluff built in may have some uneasiness these days.

[rs0460a]

Quote:

Originally Posted by laurencewill I know some of you have lost six figures, but I've never experienced this kind of drubbing before... I won't leave the game plan, but it hurts nonetheless.

Yes. Happened to my DW/me in the 2000-02 timeframe (and has done so, this year). The "flip side" was that we paid off our current home in August 1999 (30-year note, paid off in 5.5 years - through a radical LBYM lifestyle ), and used the "payment" to increase our respective 401k's to the max, resulting in "buying cheap" in the subsequent down years.

The result? I'll let you figure that one out ...

- Ron

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Quote:

Originally Posted by laurencewill This is my first experience with a five figure loss on my portfolio, and it's definitely a weird feeling. I know some of you have lost six figures, but I've never experienced this kind of drubbing before. It's north of $20k now but I don't want to do the exact math. I won't leave the game plan, but it hurts nonetheless.

A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.

[rs0460a]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire Still, the bear market could be with us, or perhaps even worse, in 2009.

Hey - that's only 174 days away ...

- Ron

[rs0460a]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.

Exactly! And remember that you are not going to "sell your entire portfolio" on that day (regardless if it is up or down).

You probably will sell a few profitable holdings to fund your "income bucket" on up years, and live on that "bucket" (aka "feedbag" ) on years such as this.

You didn't invest in a year - you won't withdraw in a year.

- Ron

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rs0460a Hey - that's only 174 days away ... - Ron

Very true! For me, market gyrations are trickier to predict than a roulette wheel, though. We could be at 7000 or 15000 in another six months, or still at 11000.

[Alan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire Very true! For me, market gyrations are trickier to predict than a roulette wheel, though. We could be at 7000 or 15000 in another six months, or still at 11000.

It's at 11,000 already Must be another down day then I suppose.

[windsurf]

My job, medical defense and product liability attorney, was very stressful. A mistake could cost a client millions and expose me and my partners to liability. Mistakes could not happen. I could have stayed in another five or eight years until my mid sixties and banked another few hundred thousand dollars. I wouldn't trade the stress and some of the (so far) healthiest (less stress, more balance) years of my adult life for more cushion when I'm 85.

[mb]

Quote:

Originally Posted by retire@40 I'm glad I haven't made the commitment to fully retire yet. I'm glad I still have a business going......mmmmmm.....and a job that provides enough cash flow to keep me afloat. One of the benefits of staying semi-retired is to be able to test the ER waters while still having the ability to ramp up the earned income if needed.

Watch out. The RE gods may take away your magic FIRE decoder ring

[Westernskies]

I always try to look at the the positive regarding my investment portfolio. The best I can say is that at least it is outperforming my Real Estate holdings...

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.

Sorry to say Rich... but this is the kind of thinking that makes no sense to me.... like "you do not have a loss until you sell".... well, yes you do.. not a 'recognized loss' as such, but a loss none the less...

And you do have a gain when the market goes up... because if you could sell the stock that day and have all the money.. so it is 'real'... again, just not recognized or monitized...

I bet you don't buy a new $30K car, drive it for 10 years and think... wow, I am driving around in a car worth $30K because I have not sold it yet.... nope, it is worth less... you have a 'loss'...

But then again, I hear so many people say the same thing to justify their thinking... it must come from someplace...

The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....

[rs0460a]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....

Respectfully, I respond that you are caught in "short term" (investor) thinking.

Did I lose $$$ since January 1'st of this year? Yes!

Did I lose $$$ since I started investing 25+ years ago (allowing for inflation and my contributions)? Nope!

It's the same as that old song sung by Kenny Rodgers, "The Gambler" in which he sings:

"You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.

There'll be time enough for countin when the dealins done".

As for me? I'm still at the table ...

- Ron

[CuppaJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa A good antidote is to remind yourself that when the market is way up, you don't really "own" all those gains; they'll drop sooner or later. Just like when they're way down, you are not really fully on the hook for it since they'll eventually go up. Only two days count: the day you bought them, and the day you sell them.

That's exactly how I got through all previous bears since 1972 while in the accumulation phase. My way of thinking was to note the paper bottom line and estimate where I thought it would "hold": usually 10, 20 or 30% lower. I slept well with that kind of thinking even when I did lose 30%. I'm so conservative now that I'm out of the accumulation phase that my paper line went up somewhat yesterday but as you say I don't really own that exact amount.

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Equity prices change minute to minute while the stock market is open for business. You are always winning and losing all day long. At some point you need to arbitrarily declare a benchmark: up for the day, down for the week, up for the month, up for the year, whatever. You can cry in your beer or celebrate every 3 minutes if you define your end-points that close. For an investor who is in it for the long haul, it makes little emotional sense to experience remorse or elation over very short term fluctuations.

To me it makes much more emotional sense to establish your starting and ending points with some relationship to your anticipated investing or harvesting. What you refer to as "recognized" gains may be real but unless they are exercised, they are potential and fleeting more than actual in this context.

So I think you are probably right in a bookkeeping sense, but for the posters who express a wide range of unpleasant emotional reactions to the market's gyrations, the buy and sell dates seem to be a much more user-friendly way of looking at it. And it fits real-life circumstances better, for me: I lose 20% this year on investments I plan to sell in 13 months, I'm right to be remorseful. OTOH if I plan to hold them for 20 yrs, I really shouldn't give a hoot about the bad year they just had.

Different ways of looking at the same circumstances, I guess.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kronk Even though I've got a quarter mil in the market (okay, only 200k in stocks), I'm hoping for a long bear market. In my 30's, in my accumulation phase, if it stays low over the next 10 years while I keep socking money, I should be in good shape. That is, as long as I can keep my current income...

That's the key, isn't it?

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own. ~Harry S. Truman

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud but this is the kind of thinking that makes no sense to me.... like "you do not have a loss until you sell".... well, yes you do.. not a 'recognized loss' as such, but a loss none the less... And you do have a gain when the market goes up... because if you could sell the stock that day and have all the money.. so it is 'real'... again, just not recognized or monitized... I bet you don't buy a new $30K car, drive it for 10 years and think... wow, I am driving around in a car worth $30K because I have not sold it yet.... nope, it is worth less... you have a 'loss'... The true accountant in me says you 'mark to market' every day (or every month or whatever)... and you either made money or lost money from the previous day or month....

I have to say, I'm glad you're not my accountant. You'd have me paying capital gains taxes on stocks I haven't sold yet. And that car analogy doesn't make any sense to me. Apples and oranges.

Speaking of Apple, when I bought the stock in the early 90s at around $10, that's what I had invested. I didn't lose money when it dropped into the $4 range, because I wasn't going to sell. It did matter when I sold 2/3 of it last year at $180, because I got real money for it. And even though the remainder of it is down from that level it doesn't matter because I'm not selling anytime soon. If it goes up into BRK.A levels and I don't sell, and then comes back down to today's levels and I don't sell, I haven't gained or lost anything, except for having missed a great market timing opportunity. I miss those all the time.

Harley

[shotgunner]

Since last October's high this has been a turbulent period for equities and unsettling for many many people. It stinks (I could be more vulgar) to lose money. I have just hit the magic number of seeing a 6 digit decline from the high my portfolio achieved in Oct '07. HOWEVER, as a percentage decline I am down 9.6%. Now considering the S&P was down this morning 20.8% from it's October high I feel a little better.

I don't like current events, it can be a daily concern, but I am long way from needing go from P/T to F/T work. I am going to continue evaluating my situation annually not daily.

I am comforted by having at least 8 years in cash to cover living expenses, and that could probably last 12 to 16 years with part-time work. That is a big cushion I think and it gives me comfort. Holding this much cash was part of my plan, a plan to deal with a bad case scenario.