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Old 03-14-2020, 09:38 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I don't get your point either. I've been ~ 75/25, and a few on this forum are higher, one or two or so at 100%. I don't recall any of them being condescending about it at all. They all seemed well aware of the risks, it's a path they chose, I don't even recall any of them trying to 'sell' anyone on the idea.

My feeling is it is the opposite. Some people with low or zero stock exposure get pretty condescending, telling the stock holders how they are taking so much risk (you'll need to sell stocks in a downturn! ), when historically, a 100/0 portfolio has had far better succes than a 0/100 portfolio.

-ERD50
+1

And I'm only 57/43.
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Old 03-14-2020, 10:14 PM   #22
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.... but I will admit now that we have more $$ in investments the dollar figure changes to the portfolio sure can catch your eye.
That's why I try to focus on percentages... easier to digest.
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Old 03-14-2020, 10:45 PM   #23
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I’m over 90% equities, or I was a couple weeks ago. I’m waiting for the S&P to drop below 2400 before going all in. But I’m still toiling for megacorps, so I’m determined to make the volatility work for me.

Not swimming naked; my bum is still covered by my salary.
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Old 03-14-2020, 11:03 PM   #24
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“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” - Warren Buffett

Yes, I remember him saying that during the fiasco of the subprime mortgage. Since then, US corporates have been beating each other to borrow money to buy back their own stock, it's like being on a nudist beach. Who cares anymore if someone is swimming naked? They are all nude sunbathing.

Another quote from Warren Buffett during that period that I still remember:

“When people start dropping shoes you really don't know whether they're a one-legged guy or a centipede.” -- Warren Buffett

He said that during an interview when asked by Becky Quick if the most recent bad news from a bank was the last shoe to drop. I should take the above quote to heart when I think about a serious market downturn.
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Old 03-14-2020, 11:12 PM   #25
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Im over 90% equities, or I was a couple weeks ago. Im waiting for the S&P to drop below 2400 before going all in. But Im still toiling for megacorps, so Im determined to make the volatility work for me.

Not swimming naked; my bum is still covered by my salary.
Great opportunity, makes me almost want to go back to work
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Old 03-15-2020, 04:49 AM   #26
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* the last number I saw was about 2,200 confirmed case nationally. Use a 10X factor to guess at latent cases gives you 22,000/320,000,000 or 0.007% aka one in 15,000. And this is a high side risk number because the cases are clustered in areas far from us.
The cases that you know about are clustered in areas far from you.
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Old 03-15-2020, 04:51 AM   #27
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Isn't this how Bernie Madoff got caught out? It isn't just about your personal AA but about the rot at the bottom of the piers.
I wonder if it would make him happy or sad to hear about a bigger thief then himself before he dies.
Huh? No, he was operating a pyramid scheme - that’s a little different from using leverage or having high corporate debt that is publicly disclosed.
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Old 03-15-2020, 05:54 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I don't get your point either. I've been ~ 75/25, and a few on this forum are higher, one or two or so at 100%. I don't recall any of them being condescending about it at all. They all seemed well aware of the risks, it's a path they chose, I don't even recall any of them trying to 'sell' anyone on the idea.

My feeling is it is the opposite. Some people with low or zero stock exposure get pretty condescending, telling the stock holders how they are taking so much risk (you'll need to sell stocks in a downturn! ), when historically, a 100/0 portfolio has had far better succes than a 0/100 portfolio.

-ERD50
+1 I had already been in the process of raising my AA from 60/40 to 70/30 (DW and I are getting older and are changing the AA to better fit our kids' profiles). We have exchanged from bonds to equitoes during this downturn. When (if it turns around the ride up will kick us past 70 and we will eventually rebalance back. I don't fell naked at all.

Swimming naked strikes me as being highly leveraged and/or, for pedestrians like us, being 100% in equities and needing a cash flow from your portfolio. That doesn't sound like many people who post around here.
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:42 AM   #29
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The cases that you know about are clustered in areas far from you.
You don't think a 10x fudge factor is enough ?
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:44 AM   #30
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+1 I had already been in the process of raising my AA from 60/40 to 70/30 (DW and I are getting older and are changing the AA to better fit our kids' profiles). We have exchanged from bonds to equitoes during this downturn. When (if it turns around the ride up will kick us past 70 and we will eventually rebalance back. I don't fell naked at all.

Swimming naked strikes me as being highly leveraged and/or, for pedestrians like us, being 100% in equities and needing a cash flow from your portfolio. That doesn't sound like many people who post around here.
+2 This is almost exactly us, except we went to 75/25.
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Old 03-15-2020, 07:54 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by cooch96 View Post
Im over 90% equities, or I was a couple weeks ago. Im waiting for the S&P to drop below 2400 before going all in. But Im still toiling for megacorps, so Im determined to make the volatility work for me.

Not swimming naked; my bum is still covered by my salary.
Almost same situation for us in 2007/2008. We held fast and found a foreclosed home we got for about $160K less than previous sale. Then we sold our old home and got another distress sale for rental property which is paid for and generating another retirement check each month. Based on the experience in 2007-2009, we are looking for distressed stocks to put some cash to work while not violating AA too much.
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Old 03-15-2020, 08:58 AM   #32
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61, retired 13 years, 100% dividend growth stocks since 1993, no pension, SS starting in a few months.

I do not feel any stress over this (nor in 2008-09 nor 2000-03). My portfolio value has been pummelled 30% or so the last few weeks, but I view that like a video game score - cool to get new highs, but of no real consequence.

Dividend flow (and its future growth) is what is important to me, and this is much less volatile than market price (at least it has been for me). This flow has increased every year for decades (average 7-8%), in spite of 3 individual dividend cuts (GGP, KMI, GE), and with minimal effort (some years no trading at all).

I do not condescend to those with other approaches, everyone should do whatever lets them sleep at night. I am just trying to show one approach which has worked for me.
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Old 03-15-2020, 09:09 AM   #33
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61, retired 13 years, 100% dividend growth stocks since 1993, no pension, SS starting in a few months.



I do not feel any stress over this (nor in 2008-09 nor 2000-03). My portfolio value has been pummelled 30% or so the last few weeks, but I view that like a video game score - cool to get new highs, but of no real consequence.



Dividend flow (and its future growth) is what is important to me, and this is much less volatile than market price. This flow has increased every year for decades (average 7-8%), in spite of 3 individual dividend cuts (GGP, KMI, GE), and with minimal effort (some years no trading at all).



I do not condescend to those with other approaches, everyone should do whatever lets them sleep at night. I am just trying to show one approach which has worked for me.


Cool. There are many roads to Rome. Its all about having a strategy one understands and can sleep with and then sticking to it through the full economic cycles.
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Old 03-15-2020, 09:30 AM   #34
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Im over 90% equities, or I was a couple weeks ago. Im waiting for the S&P to drop below 2400 before going all in. But Im still toiling for megacorps, so Im determined to make the volatility work for me.

Not swimming naked; my bum is still covered by my salary.
Daily price actions are a guessing game, to say the least, but I wont be surprised if you get your 2399 S&P buy on Monday. We are heading into a closing everything but healthcare and grocery store scenario which I would think will lead to some market panic. I bought a little VTI at 128 on Thursday but am pretty confident that was a premature buy.
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Old 03-15-2020, 09:39 AM   #35
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In WSJ today under the Intelligent Investor section, an artivale quotes psychologist Daniel Kahneman Saying one of the keys to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
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Old 03-15-2020, 11:14 AM   #36
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In WSJ today under the Intelligent Investor section, an artivale quotes psychologist Daniel Kahneman Saying one of the keys to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
Read that articles and was impressed with the calm logic. It comforted me as I have stayed invested through several market disasters and had no regrets.
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Old 03-15-2020, 11:39 AM   #37
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As long as my monthly dividends don't drop much, I've got at least a beach towel around my midsection.

Income from my multi-asset fund is everything. I'm not close to being a millionaire, but as long as my basic bills get paid, I'm okay.
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Old 03-15-2020, 12:12 PM   #38
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The dot com bomb in 2000 cured me of my prior 100% equity position. I have generally wandered between 60/40 and 70/30 since then.

As far as advising others, my view is that it's your money. Do what you want with it.
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Old 03-15-2020, 12:40 PM   #39
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I offer no advice nor take any advice. I'll figure it out myself.
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Old 03-17-2020, 08:40 PM   #40
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Heres my first candidate for getting caught skinny dipping: Boeing. (With appreciation to Freedom56, who posted this article on another string.)


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bo...t-term-bailout
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