“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” - Warren Bu

[pb4uski]

Well, complacent or not, I still don't see the outcome being any different from last time.

 

[eytonxav]

I am certain that there are a number of folks among us - equity AAs at 80+ who have been posting for years, condescending to anyone with lower and with no fear.

I would not say condescending, but they probably have a different time horizon.

 

[Markola]

I saw something I thought was remarkable, which is the returns of Vanguard Energy ETF VDE. Had you bought it at inception in 2004, you would not be a happy camper today.

 

[OldShooter]

I saw something I thought was remarkable, which is the returns of Vanguard Energy ETF VDE. Had you bought it at inception in 2004, you would not be a happy camper today.

View attachment 34688

An excellent lab rat. Evidence that it is not a good idea to make sector bets. I'm sure that the people who bought this thought they were astute investors who could foresee price movements.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

An excellent lab rat. Evidence that it is not a good idea to make sector bets. I'm sure that the people who bought this thought they were astute investors who could foresee price movements.

Just ask all those who invested in mortgage reits how well they've done the last five or even ten years. I still have a small investment in one mortgage reit but I am not bragging about it. The mreits returns have been pretty bad and the dividend yields are inconsistent at best.

But there are some investors who won't admit they were wrong about them. I admit I was wrong about mreits and will at some point get rid of it. It's not hurting me , but I can do better. At least I didn't bet the farm on it. I only have a little over 7% of my portfolio in mreits.

 

[unclemick]

Over years (Jan 1993) of ER I have gone from looking at Mr Market every day to full auto 2006 and not looking as much. Ballpark 60/40 circa the 2008/2009 kerfuffle to more like 50/50 recently when I looked at the dip.

So does that count as having your swimming trunks on? Time before I stayed the course and did nothing.

heh heh heh - this time my hormones required buying some Total World Index and Berkshire B with mad money we didn't spend on travel given the virus. Need to revisit Mr B's admonition of 'enough'.

 

[Markola]

A long list of companies in trouble enough to have suspended or reduced dividends and/or stock buybacks. In fairness, many of these were not “swimming naked” before the virus hit but have instead suffered since.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/he...r-stopped-stock-buybacks-in-april-51585927172

 

[foxfirev5]

A high ranking acquaintance from a major corp just suffered a 50% pay cut. However I look at the corps stupid buybacks at sky high prices and somehow feel no sympathy. In effect there was no pay cut given the bonuses already given. Fact.