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Outlook for 2nd half 2022
Old 08-12-2022, 06:03 PM   #1
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Outlook for 2nd half 2022

Iíve been following Chris Perras for a while and he provides sound perspective on the markets. He believes we may be past the worst with June 16 being the low for this year. Uses technical information and charts to back up his thoughts. No hard and fast predictions, but expects the year to end about even with the beginning of 2022, and better days ahead next year. Worth a look.
I do not use his firm and have no interest in promoting it.

https://youtu.be/VPn8B7DgZxM
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Old 08-14-2022, 08:53 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dash man View Post
Iíve been following Chris Perras for a while and he provides sound perspective on the markets. He believes we may be past the worst with June 16 being the low for this year. Uses technical information and charts to back up his thoughts. No hard and fast predictions, but expects the year to end about even with the beginning of 2022, and better days ahead next year. Worth a look.
I do not use his firm and have no interest in promoting it.

https://youtu.be/VPn8B7DgZxM

I agree this will climb higher to the end of the year. The job numbers are good, and inflation is not going higher than 8.5%. Supply Chain reports are doing better so this should ease a bit.
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Old 08-15-2022, 09:57 AM   #3
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So what happens when inflation is still 6% by end of year?
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Old 08-15-2022, 10:30 AM   #4
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I usually look at what happens in the Sept - mid-October timeframe before getting a warm fuzzy on how the year will close.
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Old 08-15-2022, 12:38 PM   #5
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Better days ahead sounds good to me!
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Old 08-15-2022, 12:49 PM   #6
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I would take even at the end of the year as a satisfactory result.
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Old 08-15-2022, 12:56 PM   #7
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I would take even at the end of the year as a satisfactory result.


Me too!
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Old 08-15-2022, 01:12 PM   #8
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Much too soon for me to be reassured . . .
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Old 08-15-2022, 01:25 PM   #9
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A different point of view

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Old 08-15-2022, 01:33 PM   #10
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Or, as someone smarter than I once put it:

The market will always do whatever it needs to do to prove the most people wrong.
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Old 08-15-2022, 04:51 PM   #11
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So what happens when inflation is still 6% by end of year?
Unless you can find a relatively risk free investment that pays at least 6% after taxes, you will have lost real value.

FYI, the value of you dollars will be cut in half in only 12 years at that rate of inflation. Not so good.
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Old 08-15-2022, 05:41 PM   #12
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I agree this will climb higher to the end of the year. The job numbers are good, and inflation is not going higher than 8.5%. Supply Chain reports are doing better so this should ease a bit.

8.5% is still super high, even if it doesn't go higher!
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Old 08-15-2022, 05:49 PM   #13
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8.5% is still super high, even if it doesn't go higher!
True, but as I mentioned, supply chain bottlenecks are getting better, based on reports of shipping and trucking logistics. So, solving the Supply-side bottleneck could ease that up, especially with lower gas prices.
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Old 08-15-2022, 07:29 PM   #14
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What are you going to do? Sell bonds and buy stocks?
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Old 08-16-2022, 08:24 AM   #15
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I am dubious that we have seen the bottom, but I would be fine being wrong. If you look back at prior downturns, bear market rallies are common. I think beating inflation could be a longer slog than some expect. High inflation, even if lower than now, could make markets more volatile and stocks more sensitive to disappointments.

The other side is that steady growth will be at a premium, so I am highlighting quality in my stock selections.

Earnings have been better than expected, but companies have been cautious or downbeat with forecasts.

There is a great deal of uncertainty.
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Old 08-16-2022, 09:11 AM   #16
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I subscribe to the Yogi Berra school of forecasting.
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Old 08-19-2022, 07:27 PM   #17
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Here is the Part 2 of his second half of 2022 outlook:

https://youtu.be/rVNWhyd02OA
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Old 08-19-2022, 09:13 PM   #18
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Here is the Part 2 of his second half of 2022 outlook:

https://youtu.be/rVNWhyd02OA

TL; DR? Is the world going to end?
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Old 08-19-2022, 09:32 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Montecfo View Post
I am dubious that we have seen the bottom, but I would be fine being wrong. If you look back at prior downturns, bear market rallies are common. I think beating inflation could be a longer slog than some expect. High inflation, even if lower than now, could make markets more volatile and stocks more sensitive to disappointments.

The other side is that steady growth will be at a premium, so I am highlighting quality in my stock selections.

Earnings have been better than expected, but companies have been cautious or downbeat with forecasts.

There is a great deal of uncertainty.
+1 I see inflation as a huge threat and think/hope that the Fed will stay the course on increasing interest rates to tame inflation even if it results in an economic slowdown or mild recession. As long as employment numbers are looking reasonable fighting inflation should be the number one priority.
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Old 08-20-2022, 06:47 AM   #20
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Here is a summary biography for the guy:
https://oakharvestfg.com/who-we-are/investment-team/

I prefer to listen to Bogle.
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