Oy! downgrade of US debt < aliens and psychics

[unclemick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I agree 100% except for the "invest" part. But not to say you are wrong, investing is just very complicated for the totally naive. Not to be taken lightly IMO.

Absolutely NOT True - unless the Earth really is flat.

Successful investing is screamingly stone simple and best when ignored via full auto deduct or similar methods.

People just can not bring themselves to believe - ya gotta have faith.

heh heh heh - boy oh boy somebody zinged in a Psst - Wellesley before my coffee - dat's a no no. .

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by unclemick Successful investing is screamingly stone simple and best when ignored via full auto deduct or similar methods. People just can not bring themselves to believe - ya gotta have faith.

And if you can't accept this and have faith, there's a bunch of people out their (initials CFA) who will be glad to do exactly as you have asked and tell you exactly where to invest. It will only cost you some portion of your hard earned riches, and by the way, no guarantees that way either.

[RockOn]

If the entire non-naive world knows that "invest your money in low cost index funds covering the whole market" is the only right way to go. And that nobody can make money by trading in the markets because the markets are entirely efficient. Please explain the huge surge of money being invested in hedge funds. Talk about not believing in the efficient market. I think there are more hedge funds than mutual funds these days, at least it is close. Things are not simple and it is never easy.

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn If the entire non-naive world knows that "invest your money in low cost index funds covering the whole market" is the only right way to go. And that nobody can make money by trading in the markets because the markets are entirely efficient. Please explain the huge surge of money being invested in hedge funds. Talk about not believing in the efficient market. I think there are more hedge funds than mutual funds these days, at least it is close. Things are not simple and it is never easy.

I'm not saying no one can make money trading in the markets. I'm saying I know I can't, except through occasional luck. As far as the huge surge in hedge funds, if doing what everyone else is doing is wisdom, I'd rather be a fool (hmmm, where have I heard that before?).


Rather than spend all my time and energy worrying that I might be missing the boat, I'd rather invest in a low cost, proven way of matching the market (all aspects of it) safely, secure in the knowledge that the general direction of the market is upward, ahead of inflation, and that if things go to hell I'll still be in better shape than most. So I can spend my time doing the things I want to do, which doesn't include reading financial statements and listening to screaming talking heads. So far, over 30 years of investing, I've been doing fairly well with this strategy, and I'm pretty happy with it. And I've been through worse than we're seeing now. That's all I'm saying. YMMV.

[RockOn]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley I'm not saying no one can make money trading in the markets. I'm saying I know I can't, except through occasional luck. As far as the huge surge in hedge funds, if doing what everyone else is doing is wisdom, I'd rather be a fool (hmmm, where have I heard that before?). Rather than spend all my time and energy worrying that I might be missing the boat, I'd rather invest in a low cost, proven way of matching the market (all aspects of it) safely, secure in the knowledge that the general direction of the market is upward, ahead of inflation, and that if things go to hell I'll still be in better shape than most. So I can spend my time doing the things I want to do, which doesn't include reading financial statements and listening to screaming talking heads. So far, over 30 years of investing, I've been doing fairly well with this strategy, and I'm pretty happy with it. And I've been through worse than we're seeing now. That's all I'm saying. YMMV.

Very good. I hope it works out for you. I'm not saying it will not, it probably will. I do get frustrated with those that are absolutely certain there is only one way to do anything, you are not one of them.

[CompoundInterestFan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley Rather than spend all my time and energy worrying that I might be missing the boat, I'd rather invest in a low cost, proven way of matching the market (all aspects of it) safely, secure in the knowledge that the general direction of the market is upward, ahead of inflation, and that if things go to hell I'll still be in better shape than most. So I can spend my time doing the things I want to do, which doesn't include reading financial statements and listening to screaming talking heads. So far, over 30 years of investing, I've been doing fairly well with this strategy, and I'm pretty happy with it. And I've been through worse than we're seeing now. That's all I'm saying. YMMV.

Excellent post. Pretty much sums up how I feel.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I do get frustrated with those that are absolutely certain there is only one way to do anything, you are not one of them.

Me too. So far I havent seen anyone say that.

There are a bunch of ways to skin this cat. Some can be easily utilized by the financially immature...index funds, target retirement/lifestrategy funds, welllesley/wellington mix, managed payout funds, DFA porfolios, financial planners, etc. Pick your risk, return and cost preferences, push the button and forget about it.

More sophisticated (but not necessarily better) strategies can be learned by reading a couple of books and asking questions.

What I'm quite sure doesnt work is to run around ranting about secret government conspiracies, employing the wrong financial calculations on investments and throwing around mad comparisons to Japan (hint: we dont live in japan) and people around here only do things one way (hint: everyone who responded in this thread invests in wildly different manners).

Oh, and quoting your own posts isnt a very effective method to circumvent the 'ignore' list, but I applaud the effort to assuage the gnawing need you have for me to read your missives.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn Please explain the huge surge of money being invested in hedge funds. Talk about not believing in the efficient market. I think there are more hedge funds than mutual funds these days, at least it is close.

Okay--I'll answer your question with an observation and a question.
Observation: People frequently make sub-optimum decisions based on emotions, false assumptions, or inadequate information.

Question:
In 2001, of the new money put into mutual funds, 16% went into no-load funds, 84% went into funds with loads. This despite the fact that it was well established that funds carrying loads performed far worse after accounting for the load fees, and no better even if the loads were disregarded. Why would people make this decision? If you know the answer to this, you'll probably know why people continue to pay high expenses to beat the market.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockOn I agree 100% except for the "invest" part. There is debate on that point, it is not universally accepted except maybe here. As an illustration, your neighbor might be in FDIC insured CD's making 5% while the stock index funds take a fall like the Japan market did, down 80% and still down 65% after 18 years.

I am not going to debate you; just sell your stocks and go home. But US assets are on sale all over the world, look at the premium that got spent to aquire BUD among many others. No way is there going to be a major fall from here, of quotes on companies that have a solid business. Insolvent banks, sure. But JNJ, GE, etc. -no way. People will look back and wonder how they didn't see this.

Ha

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I'll bet them 5% cd guys are going to regret it when the shadow government swoops in and hits them with 12% inflation....

Ha, looks like you're buying dollar bills for 70c.

[laurence]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Me too. So far I havent seen anyone say that. There are a bunch of ways to skin this cat. Some can be easily utilized by the financially immature...index funds, target retirement/lifestrategy funds, welllesley/wellington mix...

Quit calling me immature! MOM!



Ha, so you really see big upside in GE? My testosterone is kicking in...

What about Ford at $5? Are they really at risk of bk?

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by laurencewill Ha, so you really see big upside in GE? My testosterone is kicking in... What about Ford at $5? Are they really at risk of bk?

Hey, don't let me convince you of anything! Investing gives us way too many opportunities for error to want additional resposibility. Mainly what I see in GE is solid company that I believe has a good feasible plan to migrate its business into areas where over time there will be steadily increasing demand. GE also seems to have good management and good governance. GE is no rocket to the moon, or hot tip, but it is undeniably cheap, and cheap is good.

About Ford, My idea is that they will be very successful. They have a huge business in Europe. But....IMO there will be dilution along the way so I am not intersted in the common. It could work well as a quick spec, but overall I don't try to do that.

Ha

[barbarus]

FUTURES, dudes.

Especially good for people nearing retirement who haven't saved nearly enough money.
The tremendous leverage on futures will allow you to quickly magnify small sums of money into the millionaire range! I'm not saying that an unlucky few haven't lost a little $, but this can be quickly made back by those who are in it for the long haul. How do you think most of those rich men on Wall Street made their dough.

After a few years trading futures( where you can make money if the market goes up OR down by the way), you can move into options on futures where the real big bucks are to be found. Think nine figures my friends.

Don't let any of these savings account/CDs wimps frighten you away from what could be a VERY comfortable lifestyle.

Think about it. Aren't you worth it? Isn't your family?

[Bestwifeever]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladelfina "We" on the forum can't re-build a broken system, but we can take individual steps like contacting legislators, or getting into more defensive positions than usual (more cash, more PMs, more foreign currency, whatever..). If I were in the US, I'd have bought some farm/timber land, not because I want to dig a bunker, but because having it couldn't hurt. I like to examine and think about what is going on. (I'm one of those people who likes to watch the dentist work on me in the mirror, too.)

LadelFina, these are the first solutions (contact legislators, get into more defensive positions, buy farmland) I've seen you post. So what did your legislator tell you when you contacted him or her with your concerns (I believe you're overseas now but I also believe you're a US citizen and I hope you contacted your "last legislator," as it were)? What do you have your investments in? And where have you bought farm/timberland (you can buy US land even if you're overseas)? See, this kind of information is helpful to us novices. When I read your posts I think, there is nothing I can do about these situations other than add them to my worry list....

I imagine the people on this board also like to examine and think about what is going on, from the posts I've been reading for three plus years. I have learned an immeasurable amount from their quite varied perspectives and actions.

[laurence]

Quote:

Originally Posted by barbarus FUTURES, dudes. Especially good for people nearing retirement who haven't saved nearly enough money. The tremendous leverage on futures will allow you to quickly magnify small sums of money into the millionaire range! I'm not saying that an unlucky few haven't lost a little $, but this can be quickly made back by those who are in it for the long haul. How do you think most of those rich men on Wall Street made their dough. After a few years trading futures( where you can make money if the market goes up OR down by the way), you can move into options on futures where the real big bucks are to be found. Think nine figures my friends. Don't let any of these savings account/CDs wimps frighten you away from what could be a VERY comfortable lifestyle. Think about it. Aren't you worth it? Isn't your family?

Where do I sign up for the seminar!!?!?

[Patrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by barbarus FUTURES, dudes. Especially good for people nearing retirement who haven't saved nearly enough money. The tremendous leverage on futures will allow you to quickly magnify small sums of money into the millionaire range! I'm not saying that an unlucky few haven't lost a little $, but this can be quickly made back by those who are in it for the long haul. How do you think most of those rich men on Wall Street made their dough. After a few years trading futures( where you can make money if the market goes up OR down by the way), you can move into options on futures where the real big bucks are to be found. Think nine figures my friends. Don't let any of these savings account/CDs wimps frighten you away from what could be a VERY comfortable lifestyle. Think about it. Aren't you worth it? Isn't your family?

High-risk, zero-sum gambling.

[Bestwifeever]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg I worry about the economy and the national debt but I try not to dwell on it . I lost my husband , my son & my brother within eight years. Nothing the economy could do would affect me more than that . So bring it on !

This post says it all--the things we worry about vs. the things worth caring about.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by laurencewill Quit calling me immature! MOM!

You tell mom and I'm gonna give you a wedgie so deep you're going to have to take a rocket to the moon to look over the top of the waistband.

By the way, who is 'mom' these days anyhow?

[cute fuzzy bunny]

In the midst of all the fear and loathing, see this:

Breaking news, opinion and commentary - Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Ex-financials, the S&P 500 is showing a 10% growth rate in the last year. 61% of companies reporting earnings beat expectations and 72% beat last years numbers.

Frightening, terrifying stuff this double digit growth is.

So Ha...besides GE if you had a million bucks to spend right now and wanted to split it among ten stocks that are nice blue chips selling for a fair bit less than they'll be worth a few years from now, what would you be buying?

[ladelfina]

Bestwifeever, what I had already done is what a number of people here have done anyway: I own my home outright and have no debt of any kind. What I have done lately is sell some highly-appreciated stock and put the proceeds into a euro account, to almost double my cash cushion. I bought some GLD where I had no PMs. I've described my other holdings in detail here before if you are more curious than that. I haven't done anything particularly exotic or that is not within the capacities of most here to do. I'm sure there are people on the forum who have reacted in a much more extreme manner than I.

I don't know your history, so I can't say who is more of a "novice". I did recount elsewhere on the forum that my frugal dad, in the '70s, did a bunch of tin-foil things, like -only hold paper certificates, -buy gold coins, -spread money over various accounts, etc. Things that seem extreme during the boom times, but which enabled him to pass on a little bit of change to me. And I proceeded to turn in the certificates, consolidate the accounts, and so forth. Because he was a "crackpot". Now I'm going back on my own youthful tracks and am not too proud to admit it. I haven't gotten to the point of requesting physical certificates, but I can see some clear reasons for doing so.

My legislators are from MA.. so I don't need to bend their ear on Iraq or any of a number of other political issues. I can complain about the housing bailout but it's a done deal that happened fast. I've always had tons of international stock and didn't flinch in 1987 or 2000-2001. What's happened recently is an extreme and non-casual devaluation of the dollar that I only started looking into a few months ago, though I felt its effects much earlier... ("well, just 'ups and downs,'" I had naively figgered).

Being aware of something on the horizon and being able to control or influence it are 2 different things. If one lives in FL, I imagine one might still board up one's house based on certain weather reports, even if one has insurance.

I took for granted a lot of things about the US. It seemed "normal" to me that people would commute 90 min. to work, and that the States have 10 times the retail space per capita of the UK or Italy. It would be nice to think that that's sustainable, but maybe in our hearts we know it is not (and that will affect earnings in many places). So, forewarned is forearmed, to some extent.

Jes' wanna be on my toes, but that does not extend to buying RE sight unseen. Maybe when I visit the family for Thanksgiving I will budget some time go scouting.

I envy FIREdreamer's set-up and hope he will give me his address so I can look him up. Switzerland is only a 6-8 hr. drive.

At least you should be able to chalk my posts up to contributing to your varied experiences here. I wouldn't want to have bored you. I find the mechanics fascinating and would have commented on them even were I -miraculously- completely insulated from any ill effects.

I am working, in parallel, to find a peaceful space where threats to my daily bread via investments don't matter. All flesh is grass. Noodles and a mat. Sometimes, though, my brain urges me to exercise it on matters of this world. I would advise you not to take me seriously if it threatens your own peace.

Best wishes, seriously. I wish you all well.