Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Pandemic era recovery milestone for US economy
Old 08-05-2022, 09:31 AM   #1
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of Florida Man
Posts: 37,126
Pandemic era recovery milestone for US economy

US employment has now recovered to its pre-pandemic level. From the BLS report released today (link here)
Quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels.
Still lots going on in the US economy, especially inflation, but manufacturing and industrial activity continues to increase, albeit at a slowing rate of growth.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-05-2022, 09:51 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 14,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
US employment has now recovered to its pre-pandemic level. From the BLS report released today (link here)

Still lots going on in the US economy, especially inflation, but manufacturing and industrial activity continues to increase, albeit at a slowing rate of growth.
We seem to be in an unusual situation. Inflation raging, the economy slowing a bit, and employment opportunities going through the roof.

The only big downside I see is that inflation is still wiping out any real gains in wages that a working person might have without it. And, of course, it's wiping out big chunks of our savings.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.

Self proclaimed President for Life of Outliers United.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2022, 10:18 AM   #3
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of Florida Man
Posts: 37,126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
We seem to be in an unusual situation. Inflation raging, the economy slowing a bit, and employment opportunities going through the roof.
Yes, lots of confusion and mixed data. Even the Dallas Fed came out a few days ago with a paper affirming their view that 1Q economic activity was not recessionary https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0802 “ However, we find that most indicators—particularly those measuring labor markets—provide strong evidence that the U.S. economy did not fall into a recession in the first quarter.”
Quote:
The only big downside I see is that inflation is still wiping out any real gains in wages that a working person might have without it. And, of course, it's wiping out big chunks of our savings.
The last data I saw on this showed the impact was uneven, with workers in the lower income levels seeing real wage increases. In general, though, inflation is hard on wage earners.
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2022, 12:18 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
DFW_M5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 6,990
However, the labor participation rate has not fully recovered:

"The labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, and the employment-population ratio,
at 60.0 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their
February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively). (See table A-1.)"
__________________
Doing things today that others won't, to do things tomorrow that others can't. Of course I'm referring to workouts, not robbing banks.
DFW_M5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2022, 06:26 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 660
I think its more of people needing to work 2-3 jobs to make ends meet....
But damn sounds good
__________________
Went from EMS to PDN
Earn Money Sleeping/ Paid Doing Nothing
old medic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2022, 08:44 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 139
This isnt good news, imo. It just means that rate increases will continue, and they will get their job losses to shunt inflation, eventually
madatrub is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2022, 11:27 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,466
Just put gas at $3.66/gallon - this was $5.80s a few weeks ago. Home prices are coming down - cuts and discounts. Lumber prices going down. Inflation is going down because gas prices are going down. No one is buying houses because mortgage rates are 5%+. So, even with this amazing Job data which is double the projected estimate, inflation is still going down, because gas is going down and houses are not as hot now. This is good.

I don't think this job number will further fuel inflation. People are just working but still scrimping on spending. Wages are not really going up that fast, and many are shopping at the Dollar store.
__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 04:30 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 1,199
It may be too early to ask this, but is the rest of the world trending with the US on this? I think the Russia-Ukraine war - along with covid - has really thrown a wrench in the way the world economy operates, and weird numbers are the consequence.
__________________
FIRED:
July 12, 2018. On safari to stay!
Pellice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 05:53 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 18,466
Many countries demographics are trending toward lower populations of working age people, Japan was first by at least a decade. Boomers v Zoomers have done the same for the USA. Doesn’t bode well for China, though increased productivity may help all?



__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 06:23 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 1,199
True, Midpack, and I don't think economists have figured out how to deal with lower rates of growth of population yet (with absolute declines in Japan and some of the Eastern European countries - not sure about Russia (although sacrificing a generation of young men on the battlefield will not help).

Everyone always says "the sky is falling" about declining population rates, and yet, the ONLY factor they cite is "fewer taxpayers paying into government revenues." But I don't think anyone has yet figured in benefits. For example: young people fully employed (and paying taxes) instead of high youth unemployment, wiwth young people actually drawing on tax revenues for health and welfare benefits, educational subsidies, or expanded militaries (and worse yet, private militias). And also the gradual withdrawal of infrastructure and servicing from depopulating areas, where, for example, water recharge can take place. Or less land needed for intensive, chemically fueled agriculture. My baby boomer population bulge is gradually exiting the planet, and it may indeed be that that was an anomaly.

Sorry, this is thread drift, but this is something of a hobbyhorse with me, and I just wish I could see some reasearch on how this slowing of population is actually working out. If, say, very tiny towns in the Michigan Upper Peninsula are depopulating, maybe that is also less of a drain for infrastructure and government services?
__________________
FIRED:
July 12, 2018. On safari to stay!
Pellice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 07:29 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 31,901
In general it seems like more workers, less bargaining power they have for increased wages.

At the same time the traditional economic view has been growing population = growing consumer spending, so fears of economic contraction with a shrinking population.

But even with fewer workers (which will require far more automation), if they have better wages = more disposable income, perhaps spending won’t shrink so much. Perhaps the economy can still grow. I guess we’ll find out.

Of course a country can always import more population.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 08:10 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,051
I do think the net of it all is that the fed has clear sailing to continue increasing rates until they really see both overall and core inflation under control for a few quarters.

With long-term rates remaining low, I could see them accelerating the lightening of the balance sheet rather than simply adjusting rates. Get out there and sell their positions that mature in 10-20 years. That's likely necessary if they want to get spending by big companies dialed back.

I suspect they would also like to see some give-backs on the value of housing. There is a lot of equity sitting out there that could easily be used to unleash another round of spending/inflation is rates moderate in 2023. If I were them, I'd like to see some of the "my house is my piggybank" go away.

Of course...I really have no idea what will happen!
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
Closet_Gamer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2022, 10:53 AM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 10,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by Closet_Gamer View Post

Of course...I really have no idea what will happen!
That's okay. The people fixing the problem don't know either. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The housing market in our pandemic era kevink Life after FIRE 47 03-30-2021 10:15 PM
Depression Era and WWII Photo collection mickeyd Other topics 25 09-04-2013 09:44 AM
Vietnam Era Music Website Eagle43 Other topics 10 09-13-2006 08:06 PM
Happy 150th birthday: a new era looms for old age maddythebeagle Other topics 0 03-16-2006 08:53 AM
demise of a "gnarly" era ronin Other topics 1 12-08-2005 11:51 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:18 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.