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03-18-2008, 08:52 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,018
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
i think the sp500 is going to rally around 10%
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God Bless you! 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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03-18-2008, 09:49 AM
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#22
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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one of the threads here i predicted 1220 or 1170 by the end of march, amending that to around 1400 by mid-april
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03-18-2008, 10:03 AM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
Companies that acted responsibly (have a track record of it) have cash and will pick up some of the companies run by fools for a song.
Those companies wait for the bad times for easy M&A opportunities.
Apparently JPM did not get in too deep and has plenty of assets. JPMorgan ducks subprime, poised to grow: Barron's | Reuters |
Jamie Dimon would LOVE to buy Citi......... 
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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03-18-2008, 11:54 AM
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#24
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,853
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoonToRetire
Is this the panic of 2008? The 1907 Bank Panic resulted essentially from bad loans and ended in:
1 - banks failing and JP Morgan bailing out some banks
3 - a recession
4 - market down 50%
So, let's see:
1 check
2 probably check
3 probably not, but 
Good thing, by Feb 1908 the panic was done. If history repeats, we may be in for a bad summer but a great buying opportunity by early next year. |
IMO analogies like these are like sitting under a tree full of ripe fruit and worrying that the sky is falling.
Oops, another analogy.
Today's financial world bears about as much relevance to that of 1907 as... oops, another analogy.
I don't worry about the Japanese attacking Pearl Harbor-- although they could-- or Viking raiders rampaging throughout Europe-- although they could-- or all the oxygen molecules in my house suddenly rushing to one corner of the room-- although theoretically they could.
I feel the same way about the 1907 bank panic or the 2008 "financial panic" affecting my life.
My chief regret about the last few months is that I can't easily terminate our tenant's lease, sell the rental house, and invest the after-tax gains in the stock market. That would improve both my personal "work"load and my financial situation!
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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03-18-2008, 12:30 PM
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#25
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,319
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OK, I'm not going to start another "Whee!" thread, since it is not a record Dow, but gee - - up 300 points so far today!!
(muffled "Whee!"s coming from this direction)
This is certainly not what I expected from the market this week.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-18-2008, 12:34 PM
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#26
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 794
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I don't want to say anything because I might jinx it.
But I sure hope we've seen the bottom of this.
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03-18-2008, 12:35 PM
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#27
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
OK, I'm not going to start another "Whee!" thread, since it is not a record Dow, but gee - - up 300 points so far today!!
(muffled "Whee!"s coming from this direction)
This is certainly not what I expected from the market this week.
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Wait until 2:00 when the Fed announces the rate cut, then we can Whee or Whoa!
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-18-2008, 12:47 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Standing pat, although I did buy 600 shares IGR yesterday afternoon, to get back to AA goal. What the heck, the yield was north of 10%; the cap gain is just icing on the cake.
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-18-2008, 12:56 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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IMO, anything less than a full 100 basis point cut would pretty much wipe out the gains on the day. Even a 100 point cut will probably trim the gains, IMO. Not many broad rallies these days survive the 3 PM Selling Hour.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-18-2008, 12:59 PM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Ol' Ben is trying to blow air into the housing bubble faster than it can escape. Looks a little red in the face to me... 
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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03-18-2008, 01:06 PM
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#31
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
IMO, anything less than a full 100 basis point cut would pretty much wipe out the gains on the day. Even a 100 point cut will probably trim the gains, IMO. Not many broad rallies these days survive the 3 PM Selling Hour.
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It may be buy the rumor, sell the news. We'll know in 10 minutes  .
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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03-18-2008, 01:16 PM
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#32
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-18-2008, 01:18 PM
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#33
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,319
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
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Oddly enough, the Dow dropped 120 points or so in a minute just now. People must have been expecting the moon.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-18-2008, 01:18 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
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Here come the sellers, I'll bet. The market might be lucky to finish up today. Let's see what happens in the last hour.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-18-2008, 01:33 PM
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#35
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Here come the sellers, I'll bet. The market might be lucky to finish up today. Let's see what happens in the last hour.
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People are unloading their Bear Stearns . . .
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-18-2008, 01:38 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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It was really tempting to sell everything between 2:00 and 2:15 ET. But I resisted.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-18-2008, 01:54 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,624
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Whee!
Although I could have predicted this since I put some of my dry powder to work and will be buying some more Vanguard at the close today.
2Cor521
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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03-18-2008, 02:01 PM
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#38
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Good thing Im not a market timer. Or Id be pulling what little hair I have out..
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03-18-2008, 02:05 PM
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#39
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,319
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Me too!! I'm just glad that apparently the market isn't diving off into some abyss, never to return, as those ever-so-optimistic news reports suggested over the weekend.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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03-18-2008, 02:07 PM
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#40
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
Me too!! I'm just glad that apparently the market isn't diving off into some abyss, never to return, as those ever-so-optimistic news reports suggested over the weekend.
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Got a chuckle out of me. As the World Turns..
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