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03-18-2008, 03:12 PM
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#61
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Like crack-cocaine, these cuts will provide a short -lived euphoria, but with an awful, long term price.
Only a couple hundred more basis points and BB has exhausted his potency.
The markets will want more and more of a finite fix.
He can't make it better, but he can, and is, making it worse. Even some of the other Fed officers are admitting their guilt.
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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03-18-2008, 03:13 PM
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#62
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
Like crack-cocaine, these cuts will provide a short -lived euphoria, but with an awful, long term price.
Only a couple hundred more basis points and BB has exhausted his potency.
The markets will want more and more of a finite fix.
He can't make it better, but he can, and is, making it worse. Even some of the other Fed officers are admitting their guilt.
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You are right. The end is near.
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03-18-2008, 03:16 PM
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#63
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
Like crack-cocaine, these cuts will provide a short -lived euphoria, but with an awful, long term price.
Only a couple hundred more basis points and BB has exhausted his potency.
The markets will want more and more of a finite fix.
He can't make it better, but he can, and is, making it worse. Even some of the other Fed officers are admitting their guilt.
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They had an ex-Fed Governor on Bloomberg who said that Bernanke has a whole "toolbox full of tools" he can use in addition to the rate cuts.
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-18-2008, 04:55 PM
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#64
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Are you ever wrong?
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yes, but what is life without risk?
if i'm wrong my returns will be as bad as the indexes. if i'm right then i do better since your return is 2x as high on the way up
SP500 is down 15% or so. if it goes back to the peak than i make 30% instead of getting back to the starting point
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03-18-2008, 05:54 PM
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#65
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
yes, but what is life without risk?
if i'm wrong my returns will be as bad as the indexes. if i'm right then i do better since your return is 2x as high on the way up
SP500 is down 15% or so. if it goes back to the peak than i make 30% instead of getting back to the starting point
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So you never do worse than the indexes with your system of doing things? Seems like a good plan.
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03-18-2008, 07:56 PM
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#66
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
yes, but what is life without risk?
if i'm wrong my returns will be as bad as the indexes. if i'm right then i do better since your return is 2x as high on the way up
SP500 is down 15% or so. if it goes back to the peak than i make 30% instead of getting back to the starting point
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OK, I'll bite, what is your strategy?
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
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03-18-2008, 08:21 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
yes, but what is life without risk?
if i'm wrong my returns will be as bad as the indexes. if i'm right then i do better since your return is 2x as high on the way up
SP500 is down 15% or so. if it goes back to the peak than i make 30% instead of getting back to the starting point
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That doesn;t sound like index investing to me.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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03-19-2008, 03:24 AM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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Hang tough. I am sticking with my plan.
I am buying equity... DCA using my 401k.
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03-19-2008, 06:39 AM
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#69
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
OK, I'll bite, what is your strategy?
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pull up a historical chart of the sp500 from 2000 - 2002. i like to use StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Stock Charts for this. September 2000 was the high at 1530 and draw an imaginary line through the peaks of each rally. 1315 in march 2001 and around 1175 in march of 2002 and they all end around the 200 day line
next thing you notice that each major leg down had it's own smaller rallies where the peaks stop short of the above imaginary line at around the 5 day moving average line
now pull up an sp500 chart for the last year
the peak is 1576 in october and a lower high of 1523 in december. i think we are due for a rally up to the 200 day line as we did in 2000 - 2001. back then it took around a month and since i have a 30 day trading restriction in my 401k, i think it's a risk that is worth taking. at that point i'll have to look at things
if you want to get into similarities the average prices then had been trending up as well for a few weeks just as they have now even though the market fell. and the rally started during options expiration as well where the Fed decided to make a lot of people a lot poorer.
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03-19-2008, 12:47 PM
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#70
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Today's financial world bears about as much relevance to that of 1907 as... oops, another analogy.
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Yes and no. The investment world exhibits cycles, with repeated bubbles (South Sea, Tulip, dot com, etc), financial panics (1819, 1907, Asian crisis, etc), and cyclical bulls and bears. So it's fair to ask if we're in the midst of another financial panic.
But I don't think anyone is wise enough to know if we're in a particular phase until it's over. If they were, the cycles wouldn't repeat, because investors would not fall into the same traps (would they?). And, as brewer pointed out, this time it is different because, unlike 1907, we have the FED. The panic might still happen, but it should not have the same consequences of 50% down markets, or the depression that followed the 1920s bust. Oh, wait, the FED was there during the depression, wasn't it?
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03-19-2008, 12:49 PM
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#71
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoonToRetire
Oh, wait, the FED was there during the depression, wasn't it?
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Sort of. The fed was there but the institution has undergone radical changes since then and much research has been done on what central bankers should do to respond to different things. We have a much more empowered and hopefully wiser Fed now than was existence in its infancy back then.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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Investors Say "There Must Be A Pony In Here"
03-19-2008, 01:18 PM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Investors Say "There Must Be A Pony In Here"
Visa IPO huge success-
Visa Shares Soar More Than 30 Percent: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
"The formula helped produce the United States' most lucrative IPO. Visa sold 406 million shares at $44 apiece late Tuesday to raise nearly $18 billion. Driven by strong demand, the IPO price topped the range of $37 to $42 per share that Visa set three weeks ago, and complete the most lucrative initial public offering in U.S. history.
Investment bankers could still exercise an option to buy another 40.6 million Visa shares during the next 30 days. If that happens, Visa's IPO will end up raising $19.7 billion before expenses.
" This shows that all the recent financial turmoil obviously hasn't bothered a lot of people," said Nicholas Einhorn, an IPO analyst for Renaissance Capital of Greenwich, Conn.
"Visa conceivably could benefit from tougher times if more cash-strapped consumers rely on their credit cards to make ends meet", said Aite Group analyst Gwenn Bezard. "And even if people can't pay back the debt, Visa still makes money. It's a very attractive company.""
Whatever might be going on, this is not capitulation.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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03-19-2008, 01:31 PM
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#73
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoonToRetire
Yes and no. The investment world exhibits cycles, with repeated bubbles (South Sea, Tulip, dot com, etc), financial panics (1819, 1907, Asian crisis, etc), and cyclical bulls and bears. So it's fair to ask if we're in the midst of another financial panic.
But I don't think anyone is wise enough to know if we're in a particular phase until it's over. If they were, the cycles wouldn't repeat, because investors would not fall into the same traps (would they?). And, as brewer pointed out, this time it is different because, unlike 1907, we have the FED. The panic might still happen, but it should not have the same consequences of 50% down markets, or the depression that followed the 1920s bust. Oh, wait, the FED was there during the depression, wasn't it?
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i read somewhere that the fed dropped rates after 1929 until bank of england started raising rates for some reason and this caused the fed to raise rates as well. and the depression didn't start until the runs on the banks put them out of business and wiped out people's life savings
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03-19-2008, 03:09 PM
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#74
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,855
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Now that they're subject to reporting requirements, in a few months it'll be interesting to see how they spin those rising credit-card delinquencies...
I wonder if I could buy Visa stock with a Visa credit card, and would there be a margin call?
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I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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03-20-2008, 07:38 AM
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#75
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Sort of. The fed was there but the institution has undergone radical changes since then and much research has been done on what central bankers should do to respond to different things. We have a much more empowered and hopefully wiser Fed now than was existence in its infancy back then.
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Of course during the Depression, US was still on a gold and silver system, and there weren't quite so many derivative products in existence. Not to mention some extra special fancy accounting being used today.
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03-20-2008, 09:10 AM
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#76
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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It was fun to read the minute-by-minute comments for 3/18/08. Here's a graphic summary.
MarketQuotes.jpg
(I know, too much time on my hands).
__________________
Al
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03-20-2008, 10:50 AM
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#77
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Now that they're subject to reporting requirements, in a few months it'll be interesting to see how they spin those rising credit-card delinquencies...
I wonder if I could buy Visa stock with a Visa credit card, and would there be a margin call?
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They interviewed the CEO of Visa the other day. His spin on it was those people who are delinquent we already out of the system... Even someone of my small intelligence was going huh well what about..
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03-20-2008, 10:56 AM
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#78
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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A lot is being made of the fact that Visa is a processor, not a lender. True enough, but if we have a severe recession, there will likely be less to process.
I have read that a recession might acutally help Visa and MC, because people will use CCs for necessary borrowing to get by.
Maybe...but
:confused: How long are the lenders going to enable that :confused:
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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03-20-2008, 12:15 PM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
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JP Morgan is not only underwrote the IPO but was the largest shareholder in Visa.. likely it's they (and the other bank owners) who need the cash infusion.
found this which also brings up shielding the banks from Visa's outstanding anti-trust issues:
Visa: Bailing Out The Banks - Floyd Norris - Business - New York Times Blog
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03-20-2008, 12:25 PM
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#80
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ladelfina
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see my above post why i think we are going to rally which wall street will sell into slowly
bear markets the pro's sell to the suckers while CNBC goes on with the hype and by the end of the bear market the suckers sell off where the pro's buy into because they know things are about to turn around
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