Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Panic of 08?
Old 03-17-2008, 07:33 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
Panic of 08?

Is this the panic of 2008? The 1907 Bank Panic resulted essentially from bad loans and ended in:

1 - banks failing and JP Morgan bailing out some banks
3 - a recession
4 - market down 50%

So, let's see:
1 check
2 probably check
3 probably not, but

Good thing, by Feb 1908 the panic was done. If history repeats, we may be in for a bad summer but a great buying opportunity by early next year.
FinallyRetired is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-17-2008, 07:49 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
Hmmm - let's hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my balanced index funds don't break down or run out of electricity.

If I put my ear to the ground my imagination can almost here them in Valley Forge humming as they work clear out here north of Kansas City!

hmmmmmmmmm - .

heh heh heh - this week may get more exciting than college basketball. .
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 07:53 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
The panic is not over - no idea when it will be.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 07:55 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
The panic is not over - no idea when it will be.
I suspect the OP made a typo, but really meant by "February 1908" the Panic of 1907 was over.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:03 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I suspect the OP made a typo, but really meant by "February 1908" the Panic of 1907 was over.
Yes, that was a typo, thanks for catching it. OTOH, maybe it was a Freudian typo, and we've been in a panic ever since.
FinallyRetired is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:04 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:06 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
But in one way or another, it seems like JP Morgan remains involved in the bailouts...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:17 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
But in one way or another, it seems like JP Morgan remains involved in the bailouts...
At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:19 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
weren't those loans non-recourse?
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:32 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
Old JP better keep paying me my dividends or I will call them on the phone and cuss em out - I need the money/rumor has it Dick's sporting goods may have a big Kayak sale later this spring!

Petty cash, catching falling knives from greater and and greater height's could get very interesting!

Fear, lust, greed, passion - told ya it's the hormones!

Soooo - I add to my JPM and BAC or give it a few month's for the dust to settle?

heh heh heh - this is better than picking the sweet 16 or final 4! .
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:33 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
It's a nostalgia thing, going back to JPM himself..............
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 08:47 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
It's a nostalgia thing, going back to JPM himself..............
If you think Mr. Dimon is the sentimental type, I think you may wish to reconsider.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 09:22 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick View Post
heh heh heh - this is better than picking the sweet 16 or final 4! .
KRE is looking pretty good down here.
FinallyRetired is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 12:01 PM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
CCdaCE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 897
Seems like XLF is even closer to it's lowest low.

-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
CCdaCE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 12:46 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
If you think Mr. Dimon is the sentimental type, I think you may wish to reconsider.
No, Jamie Dimon either learned at the lap of Sandy Weill (politically correct) or was the whiz kid that figured out how to form Citi and get the govt to eradicate Glass-Steagall to make it happen (my guess)..............

I worked at Bank One and Chase, I know a LOT about Jamie Dimon.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
John Hussman On Fed Lender-of-Last-Resort Role
Old 03-17-2008, 04:36 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
John Hussman On Fed Lender-of-Last-Resort Role

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
A very clear article about how Fed actions address liquidity concerns, and market psychology, but do not accept the ultimate value risk in the assets being pledged as collateral.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Fed Can Provide Liquidity, But Not Solvency - March 17, 2008


Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 05:44 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
A very clear article about how Fed actions address liquidity concerns, and market psychology, but do not accept the ultimate value risk in the assets being pledged as collateral.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Fed Can Provide Liquidity, But Not Solvency - March 17, 2008


Ha
I read Hussman every week, I think he is credible and informative. I suppose some don't like him because he thinks you can time the market based upon valuation and market internals. His record has not been too good lately. I do like his articles though.
RockOn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2008, 09:52 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
barbarus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
Let's see. The Fed will have to bail out Lehman next.
Who after that? Citibank?

Any thoughts?

Brewer?
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
barbarus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2008, 03:43 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
Companies that acted responsibly (have a track record of it) have cash and will pick up some of the companies run by fools for a song.

Those companies wait for the bad times for easy M&A opportunities.

Apparently JPM did not get in too deep and has plenty of assets. JPMorgan ducks subprime, poised to grow: Barron's | Reuters
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2008, 06:36 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
i think the sp500 is going to rally around 10%
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Will There Be Panic In The Markets? Retire Soon FIRE and Money 148 01-25-2008 06:17 AM
Anyone else having panic attacks about the market? newyorklady FIRE and Money 144 03-27-2007 05:42 PM
Accelerate The Plan--Panic Time yakers Other topics 18 09-14-2005 07:58 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:37 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.