Poll:Are You Expecting Social Security?

[veremchuka]

I'm almost 61. I always expected to start at 62 then all the threads about deferring to 66 or 70 seemed to make sense. So I was really conflicted as to waiting to 66 because it was a lot more for a mere 4 year wait. My pension is reduced at 62 whether I collect SS at any age so I might have to dip into investments with a 23% reduction in my pension though I am frugal enough I may not, not really sure but suspect not. It would depend upon unexpected expenses....

Whether you take SS at 62 or 66 or 70 the break even point is all based upon the assumption that your life span is X. However, my life span may be X-10 or X + 5. As a frugal LBYM type of person and not a gambler I decided to just take what I can at 62, break even is at 79. If I live that long then I made the wrong choice.

I expect to get 100% but if I get less than what they say I will at 62 it isn't going to effect my life style. Yes, I expect to get it and like many my attitude is I paid into it all my life and now it is my turn.

 

[freebird5825]

Almost 53 here. I voted 50% for lack of a getter guess-timate.
I fully intend to file for my SS benefits (from my employment history) at age 62, for the simple reason to "lock in" my status as a recipient of benefits before things get really warped. My FRA is 66 yrs 8 mos. I intend to take my SS benefits and reinvest them for some additional TE income. I'll take 71.7% at age 62 over uncertainty about legislative changes until my FRA.
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/retirement/1958.html
I will not get any SS benefits from my late husband's federal employment (CSRS), but I do receive his pension now. I have a fixed annuity now. I am managing fine on both.
I have my own modest FERS deferred pension coming in 3 years. I have a decent size retirement portfolio to draw on in case things really go south at the federal level.
I never included SS in my "can I FIRE?" calculations, so anything I get in 2021 at age 62 will be a bonus.

 

[Lsbcal]

With all the comments on any thread referencing SS reductions, I thought a poll made sense.
...

Independent, thanks for doing this very well designed poll!

SS ... I figure I'm getting it all

 

[MichaelB]

Independent, thanks for doing this very well designed poll!

What do you mean, well designed? There's no bacon option. How can you have a poll without a bacon option?


And if not bacon, at least Venezuelan Beaver Cheese


Tip of the hat to bbbamI

 

[Lsbcal]

Bacon ... that's what you're suppose to do with all those SS = $$ dollars.

 

[RobertFrost]

maxing SS benefit.

62, don't anticipate benefits being reduced more than a small amount (like chained COLA - and that not soon). Don't plan to start until 70. Likely my wife who is younger and has lower lifetime earnings will start sooner.

While there is more than zero risk to SS benefits, I think there is considerably more risk to IRA capital and returns - the black swans, inflation, business cycles.

So we'll spend what we need from savings while we have it to invest in the 7%+ COLAd return with 100% survivor "SPIA" of delaying SS.

There is also a tax-on-SS value to making SS a higher proportion of total income and reducing RMDs by spending down / converting to Roth the deductable IRA. Under current regs and in current dollars we could have $81K income ($59K from SS) and only $1K income tax in 2020.

And if we don't make it to 2020...we won't be spending any money any more anyway.

On my spreadsheers it seems an excellent longevity insurance policy (many relatives have gone past 90).

Robert Frost

 

[HawkeyeNFO]

What do you mean, well designed? There's no bacon option. How can you have a poll without a bacon option?


And if not bacon, at least Venezuelan Beaver Cheese


Tip of the hat to bbbamI

Just stay away from the Fromunda cheese.

 

[bbbamI]

And if not bacon, at least Venezuelan Beaver Cheese

 

[teejayevans]

Not true.... some of the proposals will only protect if you are over 55...

You are assuming this law will be passed this year and be effective this year.
I propose nothing will happen until 2013, and not be effective until 2014 or later (like Obamacare), so those over 50 today will be exempt when this occurs, if it happens.
TJ

 

[Amethyst]

+1, same for husband

We paid/pay 7% into our pension funds instead.

Amethyst

I'm not eligible for SS so I am expecting zero. Most of my career I did not pay into SS so I don't have the minimum number of credits.

 

[cb7010]

I'm Not Expecting A Dime

I am hoping that the whole concept of government run retirement accounts is long gone and phased out by the time I get to full retirement age.

That said, I am not counting on SS in any of my retirement calculations. Then, if I end up getting some of the money back I have paid in, it will be a bonus. I simply don't trust that the government can turn things around and the numbers and trend lines would seem to support my view.

I do hope that we figure out a way to make sure those closer to retirement now and who NEED SS for their wellbeing are taken care of.

 

[Independent]

62, don't anticipate benefits being reduced more than a small amount (like chained COLA - and that not soon). Don't plan to start until 70. Likely my wife who is younger and has lower lifetime earnings will start sooner.

While there is more than zero risk to SS benefits, I think there is considerably more risk to IRA capital and returns - the black swans, inflation, business cycles.

So we'll spend what we need from savings while we have it to invest in the 7%+ COLAd return with 100% survivor "SPIA" of delaying SS.

There is also a tax-on-SS value to making SS a higher proportion of total income and reducing RMDs by spending down / converting to Roth the deductable IRA. Under current regs and in current dollars we could have $81K income ($59K from SS) and only $1K income tax in 2020.

And if we don't make it to 2020...we won't be spending any money any more anyway.

On my spreadsheers it seems an excellent longevity insurance policy (many relatives have gone past 90).

Robert Frost

That's my reasoning, too.

I note that your most famous relative only made it to 88 and 10 months.
Robert Frost - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Independent]

What do you mean, well designed? There's no bacon option. How can you have a poll without a bacon option?


And if not bacon, at least Venezuelan Beaver Cheese


Tip of the hat to bbbamI

They only give us 20 questions. Trust me, if the had given me 30, I would have used them.

 

[mickeyd]

After getting out of the Army in the 70s and landing my first "real job," my new wife and I decided that we would not bank on Soceal Security being there when we retired. We saved and invested as if we would only have what we put away for ouselves.

Jump ahead 40 years and we are now receiving several pensions and two social security "checks" as part of our monthly income stream.

It's better to plan that SS won't be there and be surprised if it is there at the end.

 

[Lsbcal]

Mickey, look like you did well and I hope you're living it up now. The economy needs an injection and you can't take all that green stuff with you in the end.

 

[W2R]

I am 63, and voted that I expect to get 100% of the SS that is due to me as laid out by the federal government all these years.

However, think the odds are about 60:40 that I would get 100%.

So, my vote is that there is a 60% chance that I would get 100%, and 40% chance that I will get less due to means testing or just blatant reduction in benefits.

Also, I am sure that even if I do get 100%, every penny of it of it will be taxed and there will be more issues with it, maybe surcharges or who knows what.

I suspect that none of us can count on getting away unscathed in this reduction, especially not the early baby boomers such as me.

 

[MichaelB]

They only give us 20 questions. Trust me, if the had given me 30, I would have used them.

Fair enough. But next time, one option could be

I'm not expecting 100%, I dunno how much it'll be, but I hope it'll be enough to buy me some bacon.

 

[obgyn65]

Hello MichealB - I have seen recent references to bacon a few times on this website. Never really understood why people refer to "bacon" in a FIRE context. I only joined this webite a year ago, is there anything I missed regarding the use of bacon ?

There's no bacon option.

 

[misty57]

We are both 54 years old and have not included SS in our retirement calculations since 1987 when we turned 30; we did, however, always count on Medicare. BIG MISTAKE on our part. At this point we are hoping that we get SOMETHING out of SS to offset the probable extra that Medicare/supplemental health insurance is going to cost us.

Since DH has be diagnosed with Crohn's we do not feel comfortable with him pulling the trigger to FIRE until we get a little more certainty about what the government plans to do going forward ... if that is possible.

 

[studbucket]

I'm 25 and voted "Under 40, 0%". Perhaps if I studied and pontificated on things, I'd have a different answer, but I don't think it makes sense for me to count on anything.

In fact, here are a handful of things I'm specifically NOT factoring into my retirement plans:

1. Wife's income (she currently has none as she stays at home, but will have it someday, maybe even after we/I FIRE)
2. Bonuses (stock and cash)
3. Social Security
4. Medicare
5. Any other social programs
6. The Lottery

All my calculations are based on my salary, expected raises, a steady job, and some hope & good luck!

 

[chinaco]

This poll looks like it was commissioned by a group that is promoting social security and not making drastic changes. The people targeted in the poll were 65+ years of age.

Here is the poll.


http://strengthensocialsecurity.org/sites/default/files/Lake Poll_House Briefing_June 2011.pdf


Of course the accuracy of polls can always be questioned. But IMO the outcome of is no surprise.

I have seen comments in the news that support this polls outcome.

But I have not found another poll yet that is this direct about the topic.

 

[Ronstar]

I'm 55, and I expect to receive 100% of the 1% return on investment that I calculated a few years ago