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View Poll Results: How low will it go
10% - We are pretty much done, buy buy buy. 69 28.75%
20% - Looks like it will be a bit longer to find a bottom. 133 55.42%
30% - More like a real bear market. 24 10.00%
40% - A bad bear market. 7 2.92%
50% - A really bad bear market. 2 0.83%
>50% - Stock up on gold, guns and ammo, the end is near. 5 2.08%
Voters: 240. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-05-2018, 09:12 PM   #21
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My just for fun guesstimate is that sometime in the next three years, the Dow will briefly go below 14,000. It may hit new highs before that.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:19 PM   #22
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Other than that Mr. Powell, how was your first day on the job?
The markets are missing Janet Yellen.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:25 PM   #23
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If you go to the menu at the top right of the screen to the right of the thread title, you can select to copy the URL... Then paste it into a browser on your phone. At least that's how it works for Android.

I just voted, from my phone, while waiting for my son's doctor appt.
Yeah. That takes me right back to here!

Used to be able to hit web view and vote from there, but it takes me here.

I'm not walking to 7615' to vote.

But I'll guess 15%.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:28 PM   #24
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Market is just getting the late joining players out and economic strength will keep from any drastic losses. All of us that have been in for long haul are not the ones panicking and selling out. Just like any bubble, the late to the party are the losers.

I think it could be more than 10% but less than 20%, so I'll go with the 15% avg. Although I voted 10% since 20% is too much.

Just look at the recovery after the mid-day 1500 point drop, it came back over 300 points in the end of today.
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:59 PM   #25
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I'm guessing 20%. Complete WAG.
The bigger question is will it be down a few weeks or a few years?
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:37 PM   #26
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Not interested as much in the amount of a decline as I am of its duration.
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:00 AM   #27
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So, how many people who jumped in late in 2017 hoping to catch the bandwagon are jumping out yesterday or today?
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:19 AM   #28
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Unable to see any polls on mobile device but my vote is yawn if that is an option.
Yawn is always an option...
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Old 02-06-2018, 07:46 AM   #29
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I voted 20% because that's what I'd like to see. Actually, I'd love a 50% drop and a recovery like we saw after the great recession.... but that's too unlikely imo.
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Old 02-06-2018, 09:04 AM   #30
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I know some people think this is fun, but I’ve never understood the fun in trying to predict the unknowable? Might as well have a poll on what the weather will be on a given day next year? Anyway, I would guess it’s somewhere around 10-25% but I only know what I read in the newspaper.
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Old 02-06-2018, 09:42 AM   #31
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I guessed 20% just for fun. As long as the new Fed chair stays away from any more foolish QE and lets nature take its course. If he continues the meddling, then anything is possible.
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:15 AM   #32
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I think it will bounce at 20% and bounce back to around 10% before sitting flat as investors get themselves back under control. So I say 10%. Domestic corporations are going to start bringing money back into the USA with these new tax laws, investing in themselves and buying back their own stock, driving it back up. Hmmm... maybe this was a ploy to lower their costs in order to buy back their own stocks at discounted prices?
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:20 AM   #33
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I vote 44% drop and a slow recover for the next 10 years at about 4%
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:38 AM   #34
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Here's an article with charts showing how long it took to recover from the major stock market downturns in the past.

Quote:
Chris Kacher, managing director of MoKa Investors, published a graph of the Dow’s performance since 1896 that charts how the index’s peaks and troughs have reflected the U.S. economy’s triumphs and tribulations. But more than that, the graph also illustrates how the Dow has become a chronicle of investors’ responses to significant global events.

At its simplest, the chart proves once again that over the long term, the stock market always rises because “intelligence, creativity, and innovation always trump fear,” according to Kacher.

Yet at the same time, it also underscores the basic mantra that market participants need to stay nimble during times of uncertainty to maximize their returns.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...art-2017-03-23

Interesting with mentions of important events around those times.
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Old 02-06-2018, 10:45 AM   #35
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Remember , for every bad year you will have 3 good ones . We have lost everything from the beginning of the year . If I am correct we still have everything from 2017 . The indicators are just too good to just blow away. A lot of people will panic and will sell low and come back and buy high....again.
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Old 02-06-2018, 11:26 AM   #36
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I know some people think this is fun, but I’ve never understood the fun in trying to predict the unknowable? Might as well have a poll on what the weather will be on a given day next year? Anyway, I would guess it’s somewhere around 10-25% but I only know what I read in the newspaper.
I agree. I didn't vote because I wouldn't know what percentage to vote for.
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Old 02-06-2018, 11:27 AM   #37
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I vote 44% drop and a slow recover for the next 10 years at about 4%


Thanks.
Now I know I'm happy with my AA as the portfolio still survives a quick back of envelop check of 50% drop recovering in 10 years. The estate won't be so big though.
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Old 02-06-2018, 12:04 PM   #38
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Of course there is not timeline suggested for the poll. I think we'll see a 30% drop wishing a year.

And the Patriots by a touchdown over the Eagles.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:01 PM   #39
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Here's an article with charts showing how long it took to recover from the major stock market downturns in the past.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...art-2017-03-23

Interesting with mentions of important events around those times.
Nice chart. It's reassuring to know the market recovery times in the past were 19 years, 25 years, and 16 years.

Many posters here do not have that long. Even I myself at 61 am not sure even. But it's OK. With a shorter lifespan, even if the stash gets halved and one's WR goes from 4% to 8%, he still does not outlive his stash. Problem solved.

Seriously, the chart is somewhat misleading as it shows only the stock price. In the past, particularly after the Great Recession, the dividend yield was very high by today's standard and reaching 10%.

One can live very well on that dividend without relying on the capital gain. It was only starting in the 1980s that P/E expansion reduced the dividend yield and boosted the price gain.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:28 PM   #40
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Nice chart. It's reassuring to know the market recovery times in the past were 19 years, 25 years, and 16 years.

Many posters here do not have that long. ..
Had the same thought.

On the bright side, the crash of 1987 and the dot.com bust was hardly a blip as for duration.
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