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View Poll Results: It's July, 2017. When would the market correct?
Starting this month 10 14.49%
In 3 months 11 15.94%
In 6 months 17 24.64%
Not for another year. Wheeee! 31 44.93%
Voters: 69. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-06-2017, 05:31 PM   #21
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Unknowable. When is the next 2001 or 2008 or 1929?
Don't forget other memorable drops, like Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987. Well over a 20% drop in one day. Remember the old saying, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Never been bigger than it is today..... Hope that old saying doesn't hold true for the Dow.
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Old 07-06-2017, 05:57 PM   #22
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I do not know, did not venture a guess, and left the poll unanswered.

In any case, a correction will stir things up and cause some excitement. I can handle that.

How about a bear market (20% decline), instead of just a correction of 10%? Would that be more fun?
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Old 07-06-2017, 06:11 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I do not know, did not venture a guess, and left the poll unanswered.

In any case, a correction will stir things up and cause some excitement. I can handle that.

How about a bear market (20% decline), instead of just a correction of 10%? Would that be more fun?
My idea of fun isnt a bear market. But it sure would give me plenty to cry about and post haha
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Old 07-06-2017, 06:19 PM   #24
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Don't forget other memorable drops, like Black Monday, Oct 19, 1987. Well over a 20% drop in one day. Remember the old saying, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Never been bigger than it is today..... Hope that old saying doesn't hold true for the Dow.
What fun, that time was.

I barely knew what a stock/bond/fund was and all these SR people wanted to know if the systems would handle this load? IDK, you all just told me this never happened before!

I guess I lost money that day, it didn't matter long term. Actually it was good for me professionally, there are opportunities when systems go apecrap crazy.
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Old 07-06-2017, 06:19 PM   #25
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"The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." -- John Bogle

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it." -- Peter Lynch

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: Those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know." -- William Bernstein

I could copy and paste all night. But what I cannot do is to find anyone with any credibility who believes in the idea that timing the market is a realistic expectation. Only guys on forums believe this, and then only a few of them.
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Old 07-06-2017, 06:29 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I do not know, did not venture a guess, and left the poll unanswered.

In any case, a correction will stir things up and cause some excitement. I can handle that.

How about a bear market (20% decline), instead of just a correction of 10%? Would that be more fun?
Even as a person who has a lot of cash, I don't think of it as fun.
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Old 07-06-2017, 06:38 PM   #27
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Anyway, since I think there are hundreds of different strategies, I wonder if investors (not me)... develop a "plan"... for market fluctuations, or if it's a matter of following the "news", and making an educated guess.

My former neighbor, during the heydays of day trading, worked his 150K pension buyout into over three million... via a "plan"... less than a year.

Am guessing that some members here also have a "plan"... Wanna share?

I have a self developed variation of buy low and sell high plan for a small portion of my portfolio. It worked for the last 3 years, even for 2015 when the market finished down by a few percentage. I was up 16% that year. But I really DON'T want to test it against a prolonged bear market. A correction? I can live with it.
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Old 07-06-2017, 07:51 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I do not know, did not venture a guess, and left the poll unanswered.

In any case, a correction will stir things up and cause some excitement. I can handle that.

How about a bear market (20% decline), instead of just a correction of 10%? Would that be more fun?
Hardly worth it. I want to see 40-50%
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Old 07-06-2017, 08:07 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I do not know, did not venture a guess, and left the poll unanswered.

In any case, a correction will stir things up and cause some excitement. I can handle that.

How about a bear market (20% decline), instead of just a correction of 10%? Would that be more fun?


I'll bet we'll see a 30% drop at some point in the next fifteen years. It is why we keep some bonds.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:33 PM   #30
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30%? 40-50%?

There will be a lot of teeth gnashing, wailing, crying, sobbing, threatening to go back to work, etc...

That's too much. That's not fun anymore. I don't like to see that. I prefer 20%, thank you.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:50 PM   #31
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No plan here, but I did sell my vti shares at 126.26 a few weeks ago and wrote cash covered puts for the exact same share. Strike price is 126. So I might get it back less premium. Ease the pain of buy and hold.
It shows that you, same as many, are still quite bullish. It's better than not doing anything, but VTI closed today at 123.66.


PS. I am still bullish too. That makes me write out-of-the-money covered calls instead of right-at-the-money or below. Yep, it's when most people are bullish that the market is at the most precarious point.

I still have a lot of stocks. Maybe I will lower the strike price for future option trades.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:51 PM   #32
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I'll bet we'll see a 30% drop at some point in the next fifteen years. It is why we keep some bonds.
In the next 15 years? Maybe you can narrow the range a bit.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:53 PM   #33
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It shows that you, same as many, are still quite bullish. It's better than not doing anything, but VTI closed today at 123.66.
Not bullish, but not bearish either, but my AA is 50/50 and right now I'm 20% in stocks. I just need to keep up with my AA, that's all. Of course if the market takes off from now till 7/21, I lose.
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Old 07-06-2017, 09:59 PM   #34
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No, you would not lose. You simply will not win as much as you would if you stayed invested.

See how you still act greedy, meaning afraid of missing out? That means you are still bullish, because you are afraid of missing out on a bull run.

I am the same way. And perhaps the market will prove both of us wrong by crashing.
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:01 PM   #35
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In the next 15 years? Maybe you can narrow the range a bit.


Nope. Wish I could but I can't.
At some point things will get out of whack then hopefully get back in whack. Wish I could know when to whack.
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:02 PM   #36
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Can anyone post a link to this strike price idea, Id like to learn about this stuff. thanks
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:02 PM   #37
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Wish I could know when to whack I will get whacked.
Fixed it for you.
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:08 PM   #38
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I feel like we're reliving the late 80's except interest rates haven't caught up yet.
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Old 07-06-2017, 10:41 PM   #39
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Can anyone post a link to this strike price idea, Id like to learn about this stuff. thanks
Maybe this might help

https://www.optionseducation.org/str...ut.html?prt=mx
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Old 07-07-2017, 12:10 AM   #40
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At the peak of exuberant irrationality.



No, I don't have a clue when that will be.


+1. Don't think we are anywhere near exuberant irrationality yet.
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