Poll:next change in Federal Funds Rate

[socca]

Fed watchers: here's your chance to predict the direction of the next change in the Federal Funds Rate. Timing and magnitude are excluded.

Some of us lived through the inflation battle of the late '70s / early '80s, and some of us didn't. Is 5 to 5.25% really enough?

[MichaelB]

If by “other” you mean “hold” or “no change”, that would be my choice.

[socca]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB If by “other” you mean “hold” or “no change”, that would be my choice.

other = "don't understand the question", etc.

I can't edit the poll. If you'd like to delete the 'other' option to avoid confusion, that's fine.

[braumeister]

Quote:

Originally Posted by socca If you'd like to delete the 'other' option to avoid confusion, that's fine.

I did so. Since you asked for the direction of the next change, there were really only two options.

[jazz4cash]

Is there a way to vote using the mobile app? FWIW unless you format the title “Poll: ….” there is no way to even know it’s a poll if you are using the app, or am I missing something? I’m accessing the forum via the app 90% of the time these days.

[Car-Guy]

I can't vote since there isn't a "hold" option. It's to early to tell but if I had to "guess" at this time, I'd say they will take a pause. Matter of fact, at this time, I suspect they hold rates where they are until 4q23, then maybe start ticking down slowly.

[disneysteve]

I didn’t vote as there was no third option for no change.

[Montecfo]

If I read the post correctly, we are being asked to predict the next *change*.

No change is not a change.

Notice that next change could occur next meeting, in 6 months, 2 years, etc.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by braumeister I did so. Since you asked for the direction of the next change, there were really only two options.

A vector is both a direction and a magnitude. If the magnitude is zero, the direction could be either up or down or both. So I choose both directions and zero magnitude at the next Fed meeting.

[pb4uski]

Increase. 25 bps.

Unless the Congresscritters screw the pooch and the US defaults on its debt... the chaos that would cause would be equivalent to a 50 bps increase or more.

[Drake3287]

Yep, you should have added a third option. My money is on no change either way. It's a safe political move by the Feds even though it'll hurt the recovery in the long run.

[luckydude]

No offense, but it's surprising to see there are actually votes predicting rate cuts already.

So many people were really spoiled by this past decade's rock bottom rates and think that's normal.

I expect the Fed to hold, but I think the Fed should keep raising rates to crush inflation, recession or no recession.

[SecondCor521]

I voted a decrease. But even as a relentless optimist I would not be surprised if they increased it a bit more, either now or in six months.

What I really think is that they'll hold at the current level until we're definitely in a recession, then cut. That could be six months from now. Another possibility is that they hold until inflation cries uncle and we risk deflation, then cut. That could be a year from now.

In other words, it will fluctuate.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 I voted a decrease. But even as a relentless optimist I would not be surprised if they increased it a bit more, either now or in six months. What I really think is that they'll hold at the current level until we're definitely in a recession, then cut. That could be six months from now. Another possibility is that they hold until inflation cries uncle and we risk deflation, then cut. That could be a year from now. In other words, it will fluctuate.

J.P. Morgan in our midst.

[socca]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo If I read the post correctly, we are being asked to predict the next *change*. No change is not a change. Notice that next change could occur next meeting, in 6 months, 2 years, etc.

Exactly. This isn't a poll regarding the interest rate decision at the next meeting of the FOMC. There will indeed be three options at that meeting: no change, increase, or decrease.

Since the current consensus prediction for the June FOMC meeting seems to be "no change", I didn't bother running a poll for this - not very interesting.

[GenXguy]

OP should have anticipated the confusion among others and provided more clarification. But it's not unusual to see problems in the polls' questioning or options available.

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake3287 Yep, you should have added a third option. My money is on no change either way. It's a safe political move by the Feds even though it'll hurt the recovery in the long run.

What recovery do you mean? Recession has not started. Market usually bottoms months after start.

Perhaps I am misunderstanding.

[Drake3287]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo What recovery do you mean? Recession has not started. Market usually bottoms months after start. Perhaps I am misunderstanding.

Actually, being in a recession is very debatable at this point but yes, I worded it wrong, I was referring to getting the inflation rate down.

[street]

I voted increase.

[socca]

As usual, the results of a poll are different than I expected. I predicted that the voting would run about 25% increase, 75% decrease. Instead, the opposite occurred.

Here is a recent article on this subject (biased toward increase) for the Fed watchers among us.