View Poll Results: What is your forecast for S&P 500 total return for 2016, including dividends
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Positive, double digit (greater than 2208)
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15 |
12.61% |
Positive, single digit, greater than CPI (flat to 2082)
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53 |
44.54% |
Positive, but less than CPI (pretty much flat)
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23 |
19.33% |
Negative, single digit (greater than 1878)
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20 |
16.81% |
Negative, double digit (less than 1877)
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8 |
6.72% |
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01-01-2016, 08:41 AM
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#1
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,715
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Poll: S&P 500 2016
Forum members projection for the S&P 500 for 2016
Edit to add - I included some numbers. Assuming both CPI and the dividend rate are both 1.9%.
I think the S&P will increase more than CPI but single digit.
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01-01-2016, 08:44 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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I'll say it finishes the year at 1933.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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01-01-2016, 08:47 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,288
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Sp500......2293
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01-01-2016, 08:50 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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1954....the year I was born.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-01-2016, 08:56 AM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 903
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I voted positive > CPI. However, I'm expecting CPI to be just 0-1.5% so not really expecting it to increase much. Maybe just 1-3% nominal or something.
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01-01-2016, 09:17 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,192
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Ok, I'll play.
I'm expecting just a touch over 5% return S&P closing at 2155; however I expect it to hit a new high 2nd half after another pullback in late Q1 (which I think oil will play a big role in) but drop after elections as no one will be happy with the elections and claim "uncertainty".
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01-01-2016, 09:25 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Bloomington, MN
Posts: 1,158
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If there continues to be uncertainty in Europe and Asia, the US could be the safe harbor for foreign funds. I'm going with an 8% increase in the S&P to 2206.
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01-01-2016, 10:42 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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I think we are going sideways for another year.
S&P at 2080.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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01-01-2016, 10:44 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Up a lot.
I love all the pessimism here about the future.
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01-01-2016, 10:47 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 550
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I think it is going to be flat.
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01-01-2016, 10:51 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,409
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Negative single digit...7 year bull run, rising interest rates, unicorn tech bubble...I feel like it's time to pay the piper...
__________________
Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
FIRE'd 1/1/24
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01-01-2016, 11:09 AM
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,357
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2085
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01-01-2016, 11:44 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,343
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Poll: S&P 500 2016
Quote:
Originally Posted by GravitySucks
I think we are going sideways for another year.
S&P at 2080.
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That is what I am thinking, but maybe with a few more wild rides up and down. Continued low long term interest rates will probably help provide a market underpinning of sorts.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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01-01-2016, 11:47 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,069
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The only bet i would make is that every guess in here is wrong.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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01-01-2016, 11:53 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,373
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I am more in the basically flat camp, but with more than typical volatility. Seems increased volatility is becoming the new norm. The election will certainly have an effect, if nothing else the Dem party in whitehouse will want to make numbers look good before the election. In the end approx 50% of people will not be happy with results.
I would like to have nice positive growth, but my feeling is kind of like this year, deja vu all over again.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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01-01-2016, 12:29 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,873
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2166
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01-01-2016, 12:47 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 9,343
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallas27
The only bet i would make is that every guess in here is wrong.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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Someone has to be right as we have all the bases covered....up, down, and sideways....
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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01-01-2016, 12:55 PM
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#18
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gone traveling
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
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Poll: S&P 500 2016
1850 in 2016
Recession in 2017.
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01-01-2016, 03:21 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 4,032
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Poll: S&P 500 2016
I'll play. 2016 for 2016. Haha. But I think there is a recession for 2017.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Just another day in paradise
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01-01-2016, 03:37 PM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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I chose greater than CPI, but I was confused by the "flat to 2082" part. I am thinking 2200 which is more than 2082; it is single digit more than CPI but not double digit.
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