Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Are you changing your asset allocation due to pandemic market impact?
Staying the course 264 74.58%
Selling it all (or a lot of it) 48 13.56%
Other (please explain) 27 7.63%
Pie 15 4.24%
Voters: 354. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 05-13-2020, 09:30 AM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,471
I have been a steady 50/50 with wide rebalance bands since ER at the end of 2002. This present unplesantness has made me think of a few things. a) I'm going into my 70's now so time in front is reduced, b) there really isn't a huge difference per firecalc with ranges of about 30 to 70 % of stock, and c) the stock market has given us a gift of retracing a great deal of the March loss.


So, this felt like a good time to ratchet down to a 40/50/10 level, again with wide rebalance bands. If this makes me a dirty market timer for the first time ever so be it.
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-13-2020, 09:42 AM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Elyria, OH
Posts: 1,937
I voted stay the course, but I've been slower at putting new money to work, although I still intend to buy the same investments, so I think I answered correctly.
gwraigty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2020, 09:44 AM   #43
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,934
Other--
Had been moving down to about 50/50 already.
Now plan to hold the course from now on, with updated investment plan.
__________________
Give a Man a fish, he will eat for a day.
Teach a Man to fish, he will eat for a lifetime.
pacergal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2020, 11:33 AM   #44
Full time employment: Posting here.
Happyras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Redmond
Posts: 662
I am back, long time no post...voted other
I held on through the March dip and subsequent rise. My "retirement" tax deferred accounts were essentially 100% equities, but most of our net worth is in taxable other assets like real estate, notes etc. So I felt the equities risk is too high, not so much upside, if any, for the next few years. I started selling a few weeks ago at S&P 2830, and did a little more through Monday this week. I believe we got down to 70% equities, but as of today that is looking like 65%. I wish I had sold my real estate funds as we have too much in real property as it is. Going forward, we have no plan to increase this exposure, but there is no great opportunity currently for the cash. All the best to everyone!
Happyras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2020, 11:34 AM   #45
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 386
No major changes for me. Did a small re-balance move and some Roth conversions in March but that's it.
__________________
FIRE'd---4/27/2018 @ 54. DW--RE date 03/01/19.
tdv2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2020, 01:28 PM   #46
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,181
I had decided on a glide path, so took most 2018-early 2020 gains in 2nd half of 2019 and from Jan-early March 2020, to reduce from 58% stocks to 48% stocks by the first week of March.
Sold a little more near the end of March to get to 43%, then the rest of the slump took me down to 40% stocks, so I bought enough from cash to get to 43%. 40% is my low level where I'll rebalance back up to 43-45%. In 4 years after drawing SS I will increase back up to 50-53%, then to 60% in 8 years when DW hits full SS age.
RobLJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2020, 07:56 PM   #47
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 224
Voted staying the course.

Did some Roth Conversions in March. Moved some small and mid-cap index funds into total stock market index consistent with my simplification plans.
Splash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2020, 08:08 PM   #48
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 6,772
I voted "Other" by mistake because I actually increased equities in February and March. But this poll is about May, so I'm actually staying the course and intend to do so going forward. I have nothing I'm waiting to do (financially speaking).
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2020, 05:06 AM   #49
Full time employment: Posting here.
Vincenzo Corleone's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 527
Went from ~70/30 to ~30/70 on Feb. 24th with S&P at 3225.89. I'm retired, DW to retire in a couple of years. Considering doing the glide path thing.
Vincenzo Corleone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2020, 05:59 AM   #50
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,254
I voted other, I'm staying the course. But my course is different than most, I keep 3 years of withdrawals in a stable value fund. After my draw in January, I sell quarterly some of my holdings to refill the stable value fund, sorta like a DCA in reverse. My dividends, and interest are reinvested, but those dividends and interest, are more than my draw so far after 5.5 years. All is good.
__________________
Give me Liberty or give me Death. Patrick Henry
Winemaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2020, 07:14 AM   #51
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
GravitySucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,249
Staying the course. For the most part.
GravitySucks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 04:49 AM   #52
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 575
The only thing I have changed, is as I am still in accumulation, I changed contributions to 100% equities for now. Will rebalance sometime later when out of whack.
Tiger8693 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:06 AM   #53
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Battle Creek
Posts: 31
I was already conservative, but sold a lot of it. It may not happen, but I'm expecting another 15% to 20% decline in the markets by the end of the year.

Much of what I sold was in early February before the markets started falling.
greengo523 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:25 AM   #54
Full time employment: Posting here.
atmsmshr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 627
Cherry Pie

Until 2 years ago, was 100% in stocks for the 401k. Of course there were some stomach flips during the Great Recession and Dot Com bust, but held fast during those times because I was blessed with pretty secure employment.

Upon realizing that Sequence of Returns Risk is devastating to early retirees, began to throttle back to a rising equity glidepath (ala Kitces and Pfau) the year before retirement (too late statistically, but I got lucky). In January 2020 rolled 401k to an IRA and took a single lump sum distribution on the most appreciated company match stock accounts and placed that into a brokerage account before turning 59.5 yo. Bulk of the IRA rolled into FUAMX Intermediate Treasury Bond Fund - which has appreciated 7.5% to date since purchase. (Sheer Luck). Immediately after rollover, did our annual expense to cash using Net Unrealized Appreciation from brokerage in January and February in order to capture Long Term Capital Gains. Caught the highs of company Mega. Sheer luck again to catch the highs - but then again the annual bonus structure at Mega was tied to stock price during Valentines week.

For those retiring early - the NUA and LTCG strategy during an IRA rollover is an awesome tax strategy. Just ensure you do not take any 401k with drawls before the rollover to IRA or you will have to wait for another triggering event to avoid tax consequence (reach age 59.5, disability, and my favorite out - death).

Originally at 40% equity per plan in January, Declining balance in brokerage for mega corp stock coupled with selling some S&P 500 index fund during rebound now has us down to 33% equity. Which allows me to sleep soundly. When stocks become less expensive, I will dollar cost average back into MSCI ex USA index, Russel 2000 index, and S&P 500 index. Particularly with the tiny Roth and go from all cash to all equity in that account.

Its amazing how much risk tolerance changes between accumulation with a steady paycheck and retirement before SS/Pension with drawl phases of investment. The impact is immense.
__________________
DW and I are 59/59. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA or 70. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG next few years. AA 40% stocks, 7% cash and 53% Intermediate Treasury fund. Rising equity glidepath.
atmsmshr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:34 AM   #55
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr View Post
..... Its amazing how much risk tolerance changes between accumulation and with drawl phases of investment. The impact is immense.
Interesting observation. I didn't retire until 2012 and have stable employment so I stayed the course through the Great Recession, 2000 decline, etc.

Even for the declines from 2012 up until now, I was totally unnerved. In retrospect, I think in part because I was still playing with "house money" as my portfolio was still higher than when I retired.

The fall in March as so severe and so fast (worst in history) and caused my portfolio to approach what it was when I retired so I was no longer playing with house money. Given the unknowns and the likelihood of a bad recession or even a depression, I decided to bail and wait until the smoke cleared. Still waiting.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:43 AM   #56
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 575
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
The fall in March as so severe and so fast (worst in history) and caused my portfolio to approach what it was when I retired so I was no longer playing with house money. Given the unknowns and the likelihood of a bad recession or even a depression, I decided to bail and wait until the smoke cleared. Still waiting.
So does that mean you sold in March, locking in the paper losses?
Tiger8693 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:45 AM   #57
Full time employment: Posting here.
atmsmshr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 627
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Interesting observation. I didn't retire until 2012 and have stable employment so I stayed the course through the Great Recession, 2000 decline, etc.

Even for the declines from 2012 up until now, I was totally unnerved. In retrospect, I think in part because I was still playing with "house money" as my portfolio was still higher than when I retired.

The fall in March as so severe and so fast (worst in history) and caused my portfolio to approach what it was when I retired so I was no longer playing with house money. Given the unknowns and the likelihood of a bad recession or even a depression, I decided to bail and wait until the smoke cleared. Still waiting.
Similar sentiment.

IMO some of those posting to BUY, BUY, BUY have either stable employment and not withdrawling from portfolio, or a portfolio greater than 30 times expenses for remaining lifetime, or passive income that more than covers essential expenses.

Its a whole other kettle of fish for the early retiree before SS and pensions kick in and not having a massive portfolio.
__________________
DW and I are 59/59. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA or 70. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG next few years. AA 40% stocks, 7% cash and 53% Intermediate Treasury fund. Rising equity glidepath.
atmsmshr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:47 AM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8693 View Post
So does that mean you sold in March, locking in the paper losses?
I did sell in March, above the trough and at substantial gains compared to my cost basis but at losses compared to the all-time high. I'm not too worried though as I think it is very likely that equity prices will decline to be lower than the level that I sold at before all is said and done.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 05:51 AM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 32,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr View Post
Similar sentiment.

IMO some of those posting to BUY, BUY, BUY have either stable employment and not withdrawling from portfolio, or a portfolio greater than 30 times expenses for remaining lifetime, or passive income that more than covers essential expenses.

Its a whole other kettle of fish for the early retiree before SS and pensions kick in and not having a massive portfolio.
I'm sort of in between those. We haven't yet started SS but I do have a small pension that provides about 18% of our spending that is our only income. Currently the remaining 82% is from portfolio withdrawals.

OTOH, we are well funded... WR will be about 1-2% once SS starts... I could have easily rode it out but didn't really want to.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-16-2020, 06:10 AM   #60
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 7,747
I voted other since I was almost 100% cash when all this started. I have bought and sold more shares of stock in the past few months than I have in the past few years.
__________________
I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I Bond rate May 2020 steelyman FIRE and Money 2 05-04-2020 08:07 AM
List your symptoms (early, mid-course, late course, lingering) spncity COVID-19 | Containment Area 20 03-28-2020 06:06 AM
Retire May 2020 Mountain skier Hi, I am... 8 11-26-2019 09:03 PM
Stay the Course Strategy aim-high FIRE and Money 5 04-15-2014 07:10 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:23 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.