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View Poll Results: Are you changing your asset allocation due to pandemic market impact?
Staying the course 264 74.58%
Selling it all (or a lot of it) 48 13.56%
Other (please explain) 27 7.63%
Pie 15 4.24%
Voters: 354. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-16-2020, 06:29 AM   #61
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I did sell in March, above the trough and at substantial gains compared to my cost basis but at losses compared to the all-time high. I'm not too worried though as I think it is very likely that equity prices will decline to be lower than the level that I sold at before all is said and done.
Yes, I agree it depends on what lens is used to look at the sale: from cost basis or from "paper value" high. Not sure which one I think of, but since calculations for WDR in the planning goes with value of portfolio, I guess I mostly think of the paper high value.

Oh, and I am certainly hoping you are wrong on the lower level prediction!
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Old 05-16-2020, 07:03 AM   #62
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Still employed. Staying the course. Maxed out 401K early in the year, as always, to layoff-proof my 401K contributions. Still making monthly deposits into my taxable account, as always. Still participating in my company's ESPP and selling as soon as it appears in my account (Free money). Likewise with my company's RSU's. Rebalance bands triggered in only one account and happened back in April. Did some Tax Loss Harvesting in April. This will end up being a lot like after 2008 where it seemed I had a $3K loss carryover for years...
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Old 05-16-2020, 07:39 AM   #63
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Apple pie, along with motherhood and baseball.

My only market timing this year was totally accidental. I sold all the stock in my taxable account to capture capital gains in January and did not get around to reinvesting all of it it before the market crashed. So now we sitting at 10% cash, 30% bonds and 60% stocks. I normally only ever had 1-2% in cash. We are in the enviable position of having all our regular spending covered by pensions and social security, so our required portfolio withdrawal rate is zero. We only need to take from the portfolio if we want a fancy vacation, and I don't see that occurring anytime soon. And when the travel picture does clear up, the cash should hold us for 4-5 years' worth of vacations.

Under the circumstances, I think we'll just stay the course. I would be a lot more agitated if we required portfolio draws to live our daily life.
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Old 05-16-2020, 07:56 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Tiger8693 View Post
Yes, I agree it depends on what lens is used to look at the sale: from cost basis or from "paper value" high. Not sure which one I think of, but since calculations for WDR in the planning goes with value of portfolio, I guess I mostly think of the paper high value.

Oh, and I am certainly hoping you are wrong on the lower level prediction!
WADR, to think that we won't test the March low sometime before this is all said and done is IMO wishful thinking.
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Old 05-16-2020, 08:43 AM   #65
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As a longtime LBYM person I have pretty much stayed the course. However..... when the DOW dropped below 19k I was a bad Boglehead and spent my fun money on some well known stocks. Have done very well with the purchase, but who knows, I may soon be buying more when the DOW falls through 16k, especially since COVID has decimated my 'funtime' spending habits. At 73 I see maybe ten more years of 'excessive-fun' spending, but then again when I was flying combat in Vietnam I asked God to let me live until 50 as I considered that ancient.
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Old 05-16-2020, 09:15 AM   #66
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Stay the course....thousand points of light...
Stay the course
I can't believe no one responded to this. I need to look up some old Dana Carvey stuff.

And yeah, staying the course. If I didn't sell in 2008-9, I'm not going to now. My AA is where it needs to be for long-term growth and where I can stomach it for times like this.
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Old 05-16-2020, 01:33 PM   #67
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WADR, to think that we won't test the March low sometime before this is all said and done is IMO wishful thinking.
Why do you think those of us that are staying in the market are calling a bottom? Here, the March low.

Markets go up and down.

I actually don't care if the "March low" was the bottom. It could be. May not be. Who knows? And I don't care.

What I trust is how markets work.

I'm still "in" not because I have a view on the bottom. I'm in because I trust markets. And I'm quite certain 2025 and 2030, if I live that long, will be great times in which to live. I don't think the current pandemic -- which is horrific in its own right but by historic standards is nothing new, and was actually expected -- is going to end human progress.
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Old 05-16-2020, 02:29 PM   #68
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What makes you think that I don't think that 2025 and 2030, if we live that long, will be great times in which to live? I think equities will be fine in the long run but for the next couple years it is likely to be a roller-coaster with an overall downhill trend.

I had just opined that I thought it was likely that the market will retest the March lows.

I didn't say anything about those staying in the market were calling a bottom. Not sure where you are getting that from.
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Old 05-16-2020, 04:33 PM   #69
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After posting on this and a similar thread, I thought Thursday night and Friday, that I should add that I'm in the run-up to SS (4 years from now) and the part time online gig will end in a week or two, hence the dialing down of equities (and further dialing down in March). SORR risk multiplied (in my mind at least) by COVID risk.

In '08, after reducing the equity allocation, I dialed up my monthly 403b purchases of stocks to increase my stock allocation 5-8%. If I were younger than 50-55 and still working I probably would do the same as I did in '08-'11.
Just a recognition that one's strategy/decisions are highly reflective of where one is on the quest to FIRE; "staying the course" is not a Procrustean bed and I often think (but don't recognize) that poster's circumstances are often WAY different from mine.

While I kept pretty strictly to allocations, I "cheated" in '05-'07 when I got scared by the housing debt (and was getting close to 50) and in 2000 when I thought the S&P/tech valuations were crazy. In both of these conditions, I violated my allocation rules (lowering stock and increasing bonds from '05-'07 and selling large cap for small/mid cap value in 2000-2001 which I thought were screaming values in comparison to large cap tech). These worked out; allocating to foreign often has not, but luckily the other overallocations worked out more than the ones that failed.

And now I'm looking at the end of the marathon to SS, although the glidepath will have me going back up to 50-55% stocks in 4 years when I start drawing SS and 60-65% when DW draws in 8 years. I don't see my strategy as transferable to anyone on the blog, given that their circumstances and their risk profile is almost surely different than mine. 5 years ago I had not heard of a "glidepath."

You are all unique (Life of Bryan quote)!
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Old 05-16-2020, 08:35 PM   #70
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Sold the 401k and HSA mostly all in January when we transferred a fund from an employers 401k to fidelity IRA mm fund. Also switched an HSA from Health Savings Administrators to Fidelity mm funds. We were too busy to reinvest it, so by default we are in cash. Thought about buying in at 18 but didn’t. So we’re still in cash. Don’t know what we will do. I suspect the market will tank once a few quarters of pitiful earnings post and the 2nd wave of pandemic hits. January could be especially rough once the stimulus quits and the Fed is in trouble. So I guess we are hanging out in cash and not worrying too much about it. Inflation isn’t bad and I’m not going backwards unless they start with negative interest rates .
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Old 05-16-2020, 09:29 PM   #71
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it's easy, put $$$$ where your mouth is so those believe the markets are going to tank or reach new low then SHORT sell and those believe the markets will reach new high then add buy more. I believe the market will be up so I bought a lot more when the DOW was dropping between 24k-18K.
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Old 05-17-2020, 05:20 AM   #72
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Interesting observation. I didn't retire until 2012 and have stable employment so I stayed the course through the Great Recession, 2000 decline, etc.

Even for the declines from 2012 up until now, I was totally unnerved. In retrospect, I think in part because I was still playing with "house money" as my portfolio was still higher than when I retired.

The fall in March as so severe and so fast (worst in history) and caused my portfolio to approach what it was when I retired so I was no longer playing with house money. Given the unknowns and the likelihood of a bad recession or even a depression, I decided to bail and wait until the smoke cleared. Still waiting.
PB; I think that's called capitulation -No?

The fact that you went to cash somewhat surprises me. Given your financial acumen, I would have bet that you would have been a stay the course and rebalance kind of guy.

PS: No offense intended. Just an observation.
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:25 AM   #73
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I view it more as capital preservation than capitulation. But I was surprised as much as anyone, so no offense taken.

I was getting uncomfortable with stock valuations even in 2019. The market was very richly valued in part because there was no good alternative to stocks because of low interest rates artificially goosing demand. Also, you have stock buybacks reducing supply. If a company buysback its shares because it can no longer make investments that exceed its cost of capital, that should tell you something. Also, the market was very out of whack with fundamentals (high P/E, P/B ratios and the like). So I entered 2020 expecting a 10-20% correction.

The crash in Feb/Mar was unprecedented in its steepness... if you look at some of the graphs compared to even the Great Recession it is much steeper. It seemed to me that the possibility was that this time will be different after all, but at thleast it was going to be really, really bad.

The March crash, along with the COVID contagion and the prospect of 15-20% unemployment, created a lot of uncertainty in my mind as to the near-term future of the economy... I guess I'm one of those old-fashioned guys who thinks that the economy and stocks are connected in the long-run... and the next 2-3 years are not looking very good... I think it'll take that long for GDP to reciver to 2019 levels... so I decided to bail to avoid more capital depletion.

I'm still bullish on the U.S. economy long term, but less so on stocks. I will probably get back in at some point but will limit my risk by participating in stocks by buying long-dated index call options (LEAPS on the SPY or S&P 500).

But while I was personally getting out of stocks, I was hesitant to suggest it to others knowing that there was some possibility that I may be totally wrong. Time will tell... but at least for now I am a certified DMT!
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Old 05-17-2020, 06:52 AM   #74
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I voted Other because, although I don't consider myself a market timer, I do think this time it's different and the slog back will be longer and more painful than anything since the Great Depression. So I haven't rebalanced. Also I did inherit a chunk of cash on 2-28, which sits as we speak in Ally No Penalty CD's at 1.75%, making my AA way more conservative. I am now waiting for my crystal ball to become clearer on a bottom. I do think this will be likely be a W and not a V recovery.
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:48 AM   #75
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Why do you think those of us that are staying in the market are calling a bottom? Here, the March low.

Markets go up and down.

I actually don't care if the "March low" was the bottom. It could be. May not be. Who knows? And I don't care.

What I trust is how markets work.

I'm still "in" not because I have a view on the bottom. I'm in because I trust markets. And I'm quite certain 2025 and 2030, if I live that long, will be great times in which to live. I don't think the current pandemic -- which is horrific in its own right but by historic standards is nothing new, and was actually expected -- is going to end human progress.
Well said Sir !!!!
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Old 05-18-2020, 01:50 PM   #76
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Well said Sir !!!!
+1

Here's a related post today from the Mad Fientist: https://www.madfientist.com/my-portf...r_id=840561184
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Old 05-18-2020, 04:02 PM   #77
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I'm also a guy who thinks most moments in life can be captured via a Clint Eastwood movie.

So here is my snippet for today (apologies to JL Collins, because I can't do the video editing like he can):

Original: "So you see in this world, there's two kind of people, my friend. Those with loaded guns, and those who dig."

My paraphrase (with apologies to Clint Eastwood and United Artists): "So you see in this world, there's two kind of people, my friend. Those [who stay invested], and those who dig."
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:03 PM   #78
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When I reallocated my IRA to 'conventional wisdom' of 70/30 my IRA was 20% higher than my brokerage account. It's now only 6k higher. So yeah .... reallocated IRA to match brokerage. Regrets. Lesson learned. Just need to figure out where to stick my IRA cold cash

OTOH I'm considering taking SSA next year so I'm good
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:46 PM   #79
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I am pretty much staying the course. Overall stock allocation target was 55%. In January, I was up to about 57% in stocks, not withstanding three earlier adjustments of selling stocks and buying bonds in my 401k. I put one-third of that money back into stocks near the bottom of the market and am loosely considering a 50/50 allocation going forward. Planning on retiring this year or more likely next without a pension so ding a bit more conservative is probably advisable given sequence of returns risk.
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:01 AM   #80
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I voted other. I did some balancing in March near the market low, and turned around and sold some the last two Mondays on upswings. I have been near 50/50, and my total percent buy/sell have been a few percent of my entire portfolio. Although, I'm near 45/55 currently, I might violate my rebalancing bands this afternoon and sell a few more percentage at the close today if the market holds up at closing.

I seem to have 2 conflicting rules in my portfolio managing strategy right now.

Rule 1) Stay the course and follow the spreadsheet and rebalancing bands.
Rule 2) Don't invest in things you don't understand.

Right now I don't understand how the Market can be at its current level with the current state of the economy. I know that the Market looks into the future, but I don't remember it ever looking that far into the future ()>
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