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View Poll Results: Are you changing your asset allocation due to pandemic market impact?
Staying the course 264 74.58%
Selling it all (or a lot of it) 48 13.56%
Other (please explain) 27 7.63%
Pie 15 4.24%
Voters: 354. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-27-2020, 04:19 PM   #121
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What do you suppose a statistician would figure the margin of error is on polls around here?
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Old 07-27-2020, 05:30 PM   #122
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What do you suppose a statistician would figure the margin of error is on polls around here?
The problem with polling on here is selection bias. Heavily populated with people who are well above average savers.
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:35 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
What do you suppose a statistician would figure the margin of error is on polls around here?
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Originally Posted by corn18 View Post
The problem with polling on here is selection bias. Heavily populated with people who are well above average savers.
Yes, not really a statistical problem, a selection problem. Not only the selection from this forum, but also only from people who chose to respond. You can't really know if one subgroup is more likely to click on this thread, and if a subgroup of that just doesn't bother to take the poll.

I don't consider self-selected polls to tell us much of anything. There's just no telling if it is a representative group. You have to hedge everything with "Of those who saw and responded..."

-ERD50
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Old 07-28-2020, 05:16 AM   #124
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Yes, not really a statistical problem, a selection problem. Not only the selection from this forum, but also only from people who chose to respond. You can't really know if one subgroup is more likely to click on this thread, and if a subgroup of that just doesn't bother to take the poll.

I don't consider self-selected polls to tell us much of anything. There's just no telling if it is a representative group. You have to hedge everything with "Of those who saw and responded..."

-ERD50
Yep.
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Old 07-28-2020, 01:23 PM   #125
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Y
I don't consider self-selected polls to tell us much of anything. There's just no telling if it is a representative group. You have to hedge everything with "Of those who saw and responded..."

-ERD50
Obviously, you don't work in the newsroom of the local TV stations in my area. They do Twitter polls about things like "Should 1st Amendment Freedom of Speech rights not include hate speech". No doubt a lot of thought goes into each response.

To keep us on topic, the only change in my AA was selling some bond funds and keeping the proceeds in cash equivalents. Some people may consider that an AA change and others may not. Personally, I have never separated out cash from bonds.
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Old 07-28-2020, 01:33 PM   #126
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Obviously, you don't work in the newsroom of the local TV stations in my area. They do Twitter polls about things like "Should 1st Amendment Freedom of Speech rights not include hate speech". No doubt a lot of thought goes into each response.

To keep us on topic, the only change in my AA was selling some bond funds and keeping the proceeds in cash equivalents. Some people may consider that an AA change and others may not. Personally, I have never separated out cash from bonds.
I did similar when I moved all of my bond funds over to the stable value fund in my 401k.

I am still sitting on $300k cash debating whether to pay cash for our new house. If we don't, I may just put that in an Ally savings account and ride 50/50 into retirement early next year.
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Old 07-28-2020, 01:35 PM   #127
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I've been holding tight, made some small sales and reinvested, mainly for tax purposes. Overall I have not changed my strategy (moderately aggressive, I'm only 54) and have seen things bounce back to less than 3% below things at the start of the pandemic. I was a bit stunned at the initial drop of around 20%, but decided that at my age its easier to play the long game. Overall I am still comfortable holding.
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Poll: Stay the course or Sell it All. May 2020
Old 07-28-2020, 01:40 PM   #128
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Poll: Stay the course or Sell it All. May 2020

In March I realized I’d made no Roth contributions for 2019 or 2020 so I did and bought a few individual stocks that were (then) down. My contribution limit was $14K so not a lot of money and about 30% still sits in cash. I’m glad that money moved to Roth under the deadline.
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Old 07-30-2020, 08:10 AM   #129
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Well, actually Germany was one of the countries I was referring to, specifically, the Munich area where some cousins of mine currently live, albeit they are Italian citizens. So what I am referring to are on the ground conditions, admittedly anecdotal. But there is this:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...-idUSKBN23U1G0

from the article: "............the slump will be prolonged if the number of new infections jumps.

The bleak outlook came after the premier of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, put the Guetersloh region back into lockdown until June 30 following a coronavirus outbreak at a meatpacking plant there....................... the German economy is seen shrinking by 6.9% this year. The council said it expects a slow recovery in the second half of the year, with gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to grow by 4.9% next year.

“This means GDP probably won’t get back to its pre-pandemic level until 2022 at the earliest,” "
Right. US GDP is down 32%, German GDP is down 10% in second quarter 2020. Munich area unemployment is 3.1%. Bavaria where Munich is located has unlimited free Covid testing for *everyone* with results in an hours.

I like real numbers, not someone's gossips.
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Old 07-30-2020, 08:20 AM   #130
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Hanging in there until 2023 - 60/35/5 - unless of course, things change. When I revisit this thread in 6 months or 3 weeks, I may have a very different post. Until then...
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