Poll:What return do you assume in your model

[Alan]

I look forward to the wiki that you could write to translate British English idom into American English idiom... and then we could have REWahoo! and the rest of the Texans contribute their version.

You could sell a country-specific edition on each side of the Atlantic!

At least here I only use the 'clean' phrases, otherwise I'd have to moderate myself.

 

[Huston55]

At least here I only use the 'clean' phrases, otherwise I'd have to moderate myself.

All things in moderation, even moderation.

 

[Telly]

Best case: Hmm... This one is a bit tougher. MH has cargo carrying capacity of 2,600 lbs. Subtract out 1,600 lbs for real cargo, that leaves 1,000 lbs to hide Krugerrands. At the price of $1,600/oz, that's $25.6M that would fit! No problem!

Uh-oh, better cut back on expenses a bit
You assumed the Avoirdupois ounce, but precious metals use the Troy ounce. 1 Troy ounce = 1.097143 Avoirdupois ounces. So your precious metal payload will be worth only $23.3 M

Eons ago, I worked at an industrial job that dealt with precious metals. Absolutely everything was weighed in/out including reels, spools, paper, labels, etc. If any part of a base metal or plastic reel or spool or holder was broken in use, the broken piece had to be found and weighed. All to .001 Troy Oz. Never heard of an inside theft... probably because the police might eventually be notified, but the for-profit "collectors" would be immediately notified.

 

[Telly]

I use 3% real in my spreadsheet, FWIW. I have inflation and nominal returns as variables, so can easily spin off to never-land with choices. In 2002 I was putting in double-digit negative nominal return % for 2003, high single negatives for 2004, low single negative for 2005, then slight positive for 2006, etc. Glad none of that came to pass then!