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Portfolio Alternatives Advice? Single fund vs 17 ETFS? Annuities?
Old 01-15-2023, 09:04 AM   #1
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Portfolio Alternatives Advice? Single fund vs 17 ETFS? Annuities?

Hi All,

Background - my 65 yo, never married and no children, sister (we have no other siblings) who is very ill, but now feeling well enough to do some planning, asked me to assist in consolidating her assets into her Trust account at Fidelity. Her assets are spread between seven annuities, various cash bits here and there, a TD Amertitrade account where someone (still trying to figure out who, but I think it was a local “wealth management company”) was receiving a 1.5% annual fee to trade in/out to approximate a 70/30 portfolio, a few stocks held by three different financial institutions, and two local banks and a credit union. Will come back to this last part.

Not much total value - but, a lot of moving parts mainly because she didn't know much about financial planning and was introduced to a “wealth manager” … various bits of income direct to three different accounts at three different institutions, various checks written with no pattern to pay bills, some direct payments, etc. Trying to disassemble the elephant a bit at a time.

First order of business was to sort out and assign beneficiaries for her Fidelity Roth (nothing to do as it was all in Puritan fund - not the best choice over the past 25 years, but OK for now), then her TSP (retired civil service) where she had allocated over about 25 years, 60% to the G fund (basically cash) - we discussed and did some reallocations to 60% C (stock), 20% S (small cap stock), and 20% F (Fixed income), and assigned beneficiaries (my two children). All other assets (except two cars) are titled to the trust, including the Fidelity account.

We then talked about best ways to gather in the various bank/checking accounts into a more manageable construct - so, with help from my Fidelity advisor, we have completed much of this. At about the same time we transferred the stock shares to Fidelity. We are close to getting arms around this - OTOH, just yesterday I figured out she had not closed a small account at Wells Fargo - it had changed names to Wellspring during an acquisition - that is now being transferred to the trust account at Fidelity.

I am now more focused on the annuities and the tranche of ETFs that we transferred to Fidelity. ETFs, first? The attached screen snap is from the Blackrock 70/30 model - she holds these ETFs in those percentages. This was a mess as the previous execution team at another company bought and sold 17-20 ETFs no less than 40 times over the preceding six months, then they were apparently fired and a new team took over - all executed by TD Ameritrade - so, there is little if any taxable result; we are considering the ETFs as a clean sheet at this point. Our goal, given no significant taxable basis, is to find a low cost, single index ETF with about the same apportionment, at Fidelity. Thoughts?

On to the annuities … sheesh … "introduced to this nice lade at lunch with a friend.” OK - seven contracts across four companies. All are single premium, deferred (not yet annuitized), with various goofy sounding “strategies” that are chosen, in some cases, annually). After doing some reading, my Fidelity advisor and I discussed options, including waiting, activating the terminal illness provisions in the six that had this rider, or transferring via 1035 exchange to Fidelity annuity (can combine, supposedly have 0.25% fee vs the 2-2.5% fee at issuing insurance company, and about 55 funds to chose from behind the annuity, can simply surrender with no charge at any time prior to annuitizing, and everything is in same location to allow ease of management). I don’t like using annuities in most cases, so would really appreciate thoughts on how to work through this - I can't really see a reason to not move them all to Fidelity now, assuming we can work through the terminal illness provisions - will see what Fidelity comes up with.

As a side note - with her permission, I have had discussions with both her tax accountant and her estate attorney and compare inputs with what my Fidelity advisor provides.

I am probably rambling, but just now seeming like we are getting close to capturing all the moving bits.

Thanks for your comments!
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Old 01-15-2023, 09:25 AM   #2
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Will provide more input later, but why the trust? What is in the trust? And why put financial accounts in a trust rather than use primary and contingent beneficiary designations?

But I think it is wise to streamline and simplify while she is still of sound mind and all... we did some of that over the last year and it will continue in 2023.
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Old 01-15-2023, 09:42 AM   #3
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IMO you are very mich on the right track. We are down to one equity fund for 95% of our equity position. Brokerage statements are a breeze. "Wealth managers" have to make investing look difficult because they have to intimidate any client who might consider DIY. So, lots of positions.

I am re-reading an excellent little book for probably the fifth time: "The Coffee House Investor" by Bill Schultheis https://www.amazon.com/Coffeehouse-I.../dp/159184584X (This is Bill's first book; read it before reading his second one.) If DS is a reader at all, you should buy this one for her.

Too bad about the annuities. All you can do now is the best you can.
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Old 01-15-2023, 10:01 AM   #4
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stephenson,
You're doing good work. Most of it is above my head at this point.

I think having a single ETF 70/30 makes sense instead of all that other crap. When I do similar simplification, I work in a pair of transactions. Buy the all-in-one, sell the other (or reverse). It's done, and I don't go back second-guessing.

I only do one pair at a time, because I want to have one last look at the gain/loss to make sure I am on solid ground.

Good luck with the tasks.
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Old 01-15-2023, 10:16 AM   #5
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I am 74 and at my age I am all for making my portfolio simple so it's easier to deal with as I grow older.

I like the Bogleheads 3-Fund Portfolio for simplicity. I also like Wellesley (VWIAX) a whole lot, so I have 1/3 in that and the rest in 3-Fund. This gives me a total of just four funds to rebalance when needed, pretty simple.

No annuities for me, but I also have a nice steady income from SS, mini-pension, and TSP. My TSP is 100% in G-Fund, so no rebalancing there. I have it set for equal monthly payments that are more than sufficient to cover my RMDs.
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Old 01-15-2023, 11:06 AM   #6
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Thank you, All - please keep suggestions coming ...

My intent at this writing is to end up with a Fidelity X (brokerage account), a Fidelity Z (cash management account for checking), and a local credit union account (checking and safety deposit box, notary, etc).

Once I had provided all the various trust (co-trustee) and Durable Power of Attorney forms to Fidelity they offered to set up my account in a way that would "show" my sister's account, much like a cash management account or 529 is shown in the left side bar. This increases convenience, for sure. Anything requiring secure email/messages goes through her account - we do this together so she has an understanding of what is happening.

PB4, I think she set up the trust to do everything with one document. She even had the IRA and TSP in the trust - we have since corrected this so both would flow to her two nephews and that could take advantage of both the goodness of 10 years of un-taxed growth potential and the complexity of planning for when to schedule payments :-)
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Old 01-15-2023, 11:16 AM   #7
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I think this is one situtuation where it would be wise to begin with the end in mind, with the goal being to have everything consolidated in as few financial institutions as possible and within those financial institutions in fewer securities.

The BlackRock AA is too many funds IMO. I'm not keen on International equities... they have underperformed for a long time and I'm not convinced that is ever going to change so I would stick to US equities and use on broad based US equity fund. Since bonds are intended for ballast and stability, I would go with a 5 or 7 year ladder of brokered CDs, US Treasuries or agency bonds that will probably yield 4.5-5.3% at today's rates and be pretty easy to manage once it is set up.

You could end up with one ticker for equities and 7-14 or so fixed income CUSIPs.
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Old 01-15-2023, 12:02 PM   #8
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... I'm not keen on International equities... they have underperformed for a long time and I'm not convinced that is ever going to change so I would stick to US equities and use on broad based US equity fund. ...
@pb4 and I smile and disagree on this one. I just follow the advice of the Nobel Prize winners, which is to hold "the market portfolio," which is everything. Our single equity fund is VTWAX, which is basically all the stocks in the world cap-weighted. I think the last number I saw put US stocks at 55% of the fund's portfolio.

Here are a couple of reference discussion of holding international funds:

Vanguard on International: https://investor.vanguard.com/invest...onal-investing

French on International: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/v...home-bias.aspx
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Old 01-15-2023, 01:38 PM   #9
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Yes, we definitely disagree. 5-year rolling average returns of a 63/27 mix of domestic/foreign (blue line) vs 100% domestic (red line)... international has lagged since 2012. Woof-woof.
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Old 01-15-2023, 01:58 PM   #10
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Yes, we definitely disagree. ..
SEC § 230.156 includes as materially misleading: "Representations about past or future investment performance could be misleading because of statements or omissions made involving a material fact, including situations where ... (B) Representations implying that future gain or income may be inferred from or predicted based on past investment performance; or (C) Portrayals of past performance, made in a manner which would imply that gains or income realized in the past would be repeated in the future."

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/230.156
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Old 01-15-2023, 02:14 PM   #11
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Old 02-04-2023, 01:14 PM   #12
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Hi All - a bit of update.

Fidelity accounts set up - brokerage (X) and Cash Management Account (Z).

Spent quite a bit of time tracking her bills, how they were paid and when. I initially was going to work with (local) Pen Air Credit Union she had account with - BUT, I realized that account was NOT in the Trust so we managed to get my sister into their facility, only to find out they could not simply change ownership to the Trust. It would require that all direct deposit income and all automatic payments would need to be restarted whenever the new account was in place. They were not able to say how long it would take to establish the new account, and frankly were not particularly helpful - at no time with her commercial bank (The First Bank) nor at Pen Air, did anyone ever say, "we will figure out some way to make this as easy as possible. They just stated their policies and requirements.

So, since my desired end state was a CMA at Fidelity, I spent the time and effort moving all direct deposits to the CMA and all the automatic payments to the CMA. I won't know if the various execution changes directed will actually occur till mid month.

Once I confirm there is no need for the local Pen Air account, I'll app check deposit the balance minus $125 (to keep the safety deposit box open) to the CMA account. If all this goes OK, I'll get my sister's permission to empty her safety deposit box (she says it only has a couple of bit of inexpensive jewelry) - assuming some internal policy of the CU doesn't override the Durable POA. I wish I could be more loyal to the credit union, but it is like they simply don't care.

BTW - my Fidelity advisor and his team have been everything the banks and CU were not. The Fidelity secure email system works flawlessly. The Fidelity transfer tracking system works flawlessly.

The single biggest PITA has been working with insurance companies on the annuities. One of the annuities did not have a terminal illness waiver, however their website showed a 75% terminal illness waiver for the "product" she has - however, that was not in effect when she bought it. She understands all this. Our initial intent was to determine if the companies would allow a 1035 transfer to Fidelity using the terminal illness provision - they will not.

We are now working documents to obtain full surrender of those contracts that have a terminal illness provision - if they transfer during her lifetime the interest component will be taxed at her rate - lower than trust and lower than mine - so, that seems a reasonable approach. We changed beneficiary of the one contract not allowing a terminal illness waiver to me, to avoid the higher trust rate. If I have time, would it make sense to change beneficiary on all of them (can usually do this online with her signature) to me JIC we run out of time? Note - I am the end beneficiary of the trust and co trustee an personal rep and DPOA.

I did not want to know any of this - hopefully this long running commentary will help others!
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Old 02-04-2023, 01:21 PM   #13
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OK - so continuing and back to the ETFs vs a simplified approach!

The many ETFs she was paying 1.5% to have purchased, manipulated and watched .... grrrr ... here's the list with my notes - any advice would be helpful!

Bond/Treasury
- ICVT - convertible BOND fund, Bloomberg US Convertible Cash Pay Bond, ER 0.2, 3.65% yield
- GOVT - treasuries
- TLH - treasuries, ER 0.15, 3.65%
- MBB - Bloomberg US MBS Index, mortgage backed pass through securities, ER 0.06, 2.77% yield
- IUSB - bond/treasuries?, Bloomberg US Universal Index, ER 0.07, 4.2% yield

US Equity
- MTUM - momentum, MSCI USA Momentum SR Variant Index, ER 0.15, no yield
- COMT - commodities options and futures, S&P GSCIA Dynamic Roll Total Return Index, ER 0.48, no yield
- IJR - S&P Small Cap 600, ER 0.06, 1.68 yield
- IFRA - US Infrastructure Index, ER 0.30, 2.05% yield
- USMV - large and midcap Minimum Volatility, ER 0.15, 1.79%
- IYW - Russell 1000 Tech, ER 0.39, no yield
- ESGU - MSCI USA Extended ESG (Enviro, Social, Governance) Focus Index, ER 0.15, no yield
- IVV - S&P index, ER 0.03, 1.69% yield, solid S&P pureplay

Foreign Equity
- EFV - foreign, MSCI EAFE Value Index, ER 0.34, no yield
- EFG - foreign, MSCI EAFE, ER 0.36, no yield
- EEMV - Emerging Markets Minimum Volatility, ER 0.69
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Old 02-04-2023, 01:40 PM   #14
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You are a smart and generous guy. Your sister is lucky to have you.

Regarding the ETFs I would suggest that you just start eating the elephant a bite at a time. Start by ditching any that have little or no tax impact. Once that is done, look at tax impact and expense ratios. Anything over 0.5%/50bps should probably be a priority. If you want to peel the onion a little bit, look at turnover. High turnover usually goes with high fees and the turnover market impact is probably costing her more than the fees. Funds with low fees and high tax impact might be worth holding.

Another way, since you said you are the beneficiary of her estate, would be to just wait until you get the stepped-up basis and then dump everything and start over. IIRC Fido has a US and an International fund with zero fees. Looking at those might be a good place to start. Also: "The Bogleheads Guide to Investing" by Taylor Larimore et al https://www.amazon.com/Bogleheads-Gu.../dp/0470067365

Pat yourself on the back. You are doing great!
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Old 02-05-2023, 05:55 AM   #15
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Hi All,
Background - my 65 yo, never married and no children, sister (we have no other siblings) who is very ill, but now feeling well enough to do some planning, asked me to assist in consolidating her assets into her Trust account at Fidelity.
In general I think that wealth planning and management is a profession.
A forum is able to give feedback and input, but might not be the best place for getting the help that your sister needs.
I am more the active investor, so I share my thoughts about the ETF Account.
There is nothing wrong with Blackrock, but I would sell some of them, and purchase products from other ETF Vendors. I am confident that iShares is not at all markets the best pick.
Most likely I would copy and paste the data from Blackrock into an own spreadsheet.
Next to column Portfolio Weight I would add columns for

2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
And research the performance of those funds in each year, also research the performance of S&P, Nasdaq, and MSCI World in those years

Rows that look like poor performing would be candidates for a Sell.
I do not have a US background.
In my home environment (Ireland, Germany, Switzerland) it is not family tradition that retirees have 70% Stocks.
I would change the asset class allocation to 30% real estate, 20% equity, 50% fixed income and cash
Yep, finance can be a time consuming activity
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Old 02-05-2023, 07:36 AM   #16
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Any funds with cap gains should be retained if possible for the step up basis. Any funds that have cap losses should be moved to a simple 50/50 stock bond portfolio of total US market(Fidelity is fine) and total us bond market(Fidelity is fine). The annuities will need to be researched to determine the insurance aspect of each annuity.

Good luck to you as this will require some work, but be simple after the changes. I would not try to build ladders of CDs or individual bonds unless you like to spend some time there or are already well versed on the subject.

Best,

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Old 02-05-2023, 09:22 AM   #17
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... And research the performance of those funds in each year, also research the performance of S&P, Nasdaq, and MSCI World in those years. Rows that look like poor performing would be candidates for a Sell. ...
Almost certainly a waste of time. Beginning over a half century ago as cheap computers and good databases became available, all the data and studies show that past performance does not predict future results. IOW, performance does not "persist."

Nobel prize winner Harry Markowitz bases Modern Portfolio Theory and the "Efficient Frontier" on the idea that asset prices vary randomly. (1952 : https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1952.tb01525.x)

Nobel prize winner Michael Jensen concluded in 1967: "The evidence on mutual fund performance (aka professional speculators) indicates not only that these 115 mutual funds were on average not able to predict security prices well enough to outperform a buy-the-market-and-hold policy, but also that there is very little evidence that any individual fund was able to do significantly better than that which we expected from mere random chance."

Since then, S&P has regularly published "Manager Persistence" reports. Although the percentage numbers vary slightly from report to report, the conclusion does not: Good performance does not persist. (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/se...ry=persistence)

Below is a slide I use in my Adult-Ed investing class. On the left it ranks managers based on their five year performance. On the right it shows the performance of the top 20% of managers over the next five years.

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Old 02-05-2023, 02:21 PM   #18
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The trouble with Markowitz is, that it is a theory.

Nobody ever saw the efficient frontier.
Sometimes I compare stock markets with the weather forecast.
My theory for tomorrow:
Today's weather is a good estimate for tomorrow.
It won't be always correct, but often.
"Good performance does not persist" - is the reason why bubbles are bursting from time to time.
Entering instruments and numbers in the own spreadsheet helps some people to understand what they are doing.
Selling poor performers first, could be a starting point.
One could add columns, expected performance in 2023 and 2024.

For large enough funds, estimates might be around.
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Old 02-05-2023, 02:57 PM   #19
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... I do not have a US background.
In my home environment (Ireland, Germany, Switzerland) it is not family tradition that retirees have 70% Stocks.
I would change the asset class allocation to 30% real estate, 20% equity, 50% fixed income and cash
Yep, finance can be a time consuming activity
WADR, since the OP is based in the US, perhaps you should defer to the judgement of the US based forum members. Your recommended 30% real estate, 20% equity and 50% fixed income/cash would be very unusual AA recommendation for a 65yo retiree in the US.
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Old 02-05-2023, 07:34 PM   #20
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WADR, since the OP is based in the US, perhaps you should defer to the judgement of the US based forum members. Your recommended 30% real estate, 20% equity and 50% fixed income/cash would be very unusual AA recommendation for a 65yo retiree in the US.

Many (most?) European countries do not have favorable taxation for equities, but they do for real estate. That’s why most people I know in Europe focus on real estate instead of equities.

We have a forum member that returned to Europe and did exactly that: changed his portfolio from mostly equities to mostly real estate. Unfortunately he doesn’t post here as often and hopefully he is still doing well.
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