Possible Recession due to High Unemployment

[Wags]

Quote:

Originally Posted by maddythebeagle Or instead of posting on internet message boards like Op often does with these ridiculous threads...I still think his tagline needs some work....how about... -TROLLS DIE

I guess you did not like the GREAT David Allen Coe. But I hope that you will like Peter Frampton (to whom I am listening to as a write this post).

YouTube - Peter Frampton-Baby I love your way

GOD BLESS

[danm]

Funny thing about this board. Much as I like it, it seems that whenever a discussion that is out of the consensus starts, some individuals come out to break it up.

Recessions are interesting events, well worth the time it takes to study them.

[A854321]

Did I see Peter Frampton in a Geico ad? really.

[Wags]

There is an ABC News article "Investors May See Dividends Disappear".

ABC News: Investors May See Dividends Disappear

A paragraph from the article

Many investors rely on dividend payments as a source of income, and financial institutions in particular have been rich sources of large payouts. Their need to raise capital in the face of rising loan defaults, though, has made their dividends one of the first places they look to save money

If this is the case would it not hurt retirees the most or do you think it would hurt everyone? Might it be one of the contributing factors leading to a recession?

Yes that was Peter Frampton on the Geico ad.

GOD BLESS

[HFWR]

I'm maintaining my current allocation for now. My plan is to add more bonds as rates rise, which I expect they will do in the next few years. May lower my allocation to REITs. I bumped to 15% as prices fell/dividends rose recently, taking cash from MM and their falling rates.
Stock allocations have not changed much; used the remaining MM, and some cash from rebalancing PCRIX, to increase EM (VWO) to 10% from 5%.

As for "hemp", smoking it will result in a headache.

Cannibis indica, on the other hand...

"I smoke two joints in the morning, I smoke two joints at night.
I smoke two joints in the afternoon; it makes me feel alright
I smoke two joints in time of peace, and two in time of war.
I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints, and then I smoke two more..."

The Toys

[jIMOh]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wags An interesting read on Yahoo, the article " Jobless Rate Hits 5 Percent, a 2-Year High, Fanning Recession Fears". Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance There is also a NBC News article "Recession Fears Stoke Political Debate" Recession fears stoke political debate - Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com With the recent high cost of $100 plus for a barrel of oil (which has gone back to abut $98 plus), the credit crunch and the housing slump in some parts of our country one has to wonder if a recession is around the corner. Unfortunately it will probably be the poor, the elderly and those on limited incomes (retirees, the disabled, etc...)that will suffer the most from high gas prices, high heating costs, high food prices, etc..., etc....., etc..... GOD BLESS

My understanding was unemployment peaks during the "profit" stage of an economic cycle. If Production is at capacity, there is nothing to be gained hiring more workers, so job growth slows, and therefore unemployment increases. The key to seeing a recession is if inventory grows.

There was an article I read in December which took reader through 4 stages of an economic cycle- and the key to the article was that high this or low that in one cycle was a good thing, and high this or low that in another cycle meant something different. Because we are in the profit stage of economic cycle, higher unemployment and slower job growth should be expected.