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Possible Recession due to High Unemployment
01-04-2008, 05:03 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
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Possible Recession due to High Unemployment
An interesting read on Yahoo, the article " Jobless Rate Hits 5 Percent, a 2-Year High, Fanning Recession Fears".
Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
There is also a NBC News article "Recession Fears Stoke Political Debate"
Recession fears stoke political debate - Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com
With the recent high cost of $100 plus for a barrel of oil (which has gone back to abut $98 plus), the credit crunch and the housing slump in some parts of our country one has to wonder if a recession is around the corner.
Unfortunately it will probably be the poor, the elderly and those on limited incomes (retirees, the disabled, etc...)that will suffer the most from high gas prices, high heating costs, high food prices, etc..., etc....., etc.....
GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
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01-05-2008, 05:20 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Central, Ohio, USA
Posts: 2,635
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Doom and Gloom - here is another one to add to the mix (which you mentioned) Forget oil, the new global crisis is food
__________________
Vietnam Veteran, CW4 USA, Retired 1979
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01-05-2008, 08:01 AM
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#3
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 46,622
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These may be unrealistic "doom and gloom stories", but even if they are they can be extremely helpful to anyone planning ER.
At least, stories like this are helpful to me. They inspire me to think, "What would I do if this scenario really happened?" and map out a strategy to cope with higher fuel prices (live close enough to businesses and grocery store that I could just walk places, and don't live in an extremely harsh climate), or higher grocery prices (make sure I have enough land to raise my own vegetables, and enough slack in my ER budget to pay more for other things if necessary).
Then I can sleep like a baby at night.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
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01-05-2008, 10:33 AM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
These may be unrealistic "doom and gloom stories", but even if they are they can be extremely helpful to anyone planning ER.
At least, stories like this are helpful to me. They inspire me to think, "What would I do if this scenario really happened?" and map out a strategy to cope with higher fuel prices (live close enough to businesses and grocery store that I could just walk places, and don't live in an extremely harsh climate), or higher grocery prices (make sure I have enough land to raise my own vegetables, and enough slack in my ER budget to pay more for other things if necessary).
Then I can sleep like a baby at night. 
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I too look at posts like this as being extremely helpful because it opens one's mind to the plight of others and to some of the problems in the world with food, oil, living, etc..., etc.....
In my travels in the military I traveled to countries where to the poor having drinkable water and bread were considered a luxury. We as Americans have really been blessed.
R. Wood the article/link Forget oil, the new global crisis is food is an excellent read. Thank You.
On another thread I talked about the use of HEMP as a crop which can be harvested to make biofuels, clothes/garments, paper, and it has some medical use. Here are some interesting links on HEMP
Facts you should know about Hemp
Hempcar.org-Pollution: Petrol vs Hemp
ENERGY CRISIS: Ford And Diesel Never Intended Cars To Use Gasoline
GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
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01-05-2008, 10:57 AM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon
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Outstanding article it hits the issue right on the spot. Thanks!
GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
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01-05-2008, 11:19 AM
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#7
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 137
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It would be an amazing turn if there wasn't a severe recession this year. We would have truly learned how to raise the dead ...
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01-05-2008, 12:51 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Um, you guys are all invested with long term plans in mind, right? So shut off CNBC and go play.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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01-05-2008, 01:22 PM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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I've heard that hemp, if used in certain ways, can make one oblivious to the fact that there is a recession going on.
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01-05-2008, 01:32 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 6,995
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Youy know, i thought the same thing, but see the link posted above: Forget oil, the new global crisis is food
If that's true - then getting the munchies could tend to speed up that downward spiral. OTOH, to quote Freewheelin' Franklin:
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01-05-2008, 01:33 PM
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#11
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Columbus
Posts: 769
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I can think of two ways, if one doesn't work the other one will for sure.
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01-05-2008, 01:44 PM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Uncle, the sure way only has to work once too.
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01-05-2008, 02:13 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,150
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http://www.bls.gov/cps/labor2006/chart1-2.pdf
The chart above indicates the unemployment rates through 2006. I do wonder why the unemployment rate is such a harbinger of recession when for most of the time it has been higher than it is now. For me, I'll stay with my allocations, trust Firecalc, and ignore those that are trying to scare folks. Does that mean I don't think a recession is coming? I don't know. I do know that people that post scare links often have an agenda.
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01-05-2008, 02:15 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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It's hard to get excited about a 5% unemployment rate. That's almost at the fabled "full employment" we've been seeing for several years.
I'm sure we are just now seeing the impact of the home building and mortgage industry lay offs of which there were tens of thousands. Yet we still managed to have a net addition of new jobs. I suspect that given a few months this would all disappear. The economy is still growing pretty well in the other areas.
I'm more concerned about the government doing stupid things to "stimulate" the economy that really screw things up.
The news industry loves to excite everyone with doom and gloom. Turn of the TV and read a book.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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01-05-2008, 02:35 PM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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I'm concerned about the impact on relatives and friends. Although I rate as a financial bum when judged by the economic position of the flush swells that post here, I'm rather well off compared to many of our fellow Americans.
The endangered folks that I know all have bachelors or higher degrees, work very hard and spend their money conservatively. For all that, they are in many cases within spitting distance of the brink of fiscal disaster. There is simply no realistic way that most of them could improve their lot in life.
More education? Well maybe an MD or JD, (they've already got other degrees)
Work harder? They could go from 2 jobs to 3 I guess. Sleep's so overrated!!
Save more? Cut back on Raman soup potatoes and Alpo.
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01-05-2008, 02:44 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 34,049
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There are always an endless number of folks to be worried about. So many things that could go wrong. What's the point?
Audrey
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01-05-2008, 02:52 PM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
I'm concerned about the impact on relatives and friends. Although I rate as a financial bum when judged by the economic position of the flush swells that post here, I'm rather well off compared to many of our fellow Americans.
The endangered folks that I know all have bachelors or higher degrees, work very hard and spend their money conservatively. For all that, they are in many cases within spitting distance of the brink of fiscal disaster. There is simply no realistic way that most of them could improve their lot in life.
More education? Well maybe an MD or JD, (they've already got other degrees)
Work harder? They could go from 2 jobs to 3 I guess. Sleep's so overrated!!
Save more? Cut back on Raman soup potatoes and Alpo.
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Great Post. I too am concerned about some of our fellow Americans who in some cases are just a paycheck away from financial disaster.
As for the replies calmloki, uncle honey and you gave on the HEMP - they were all great. I do know of some people that inhale hemp and they sit back and listen to the GREAT David Allen Coe.
GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
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01-05-2008, 03:22 PM
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#18
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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There is no use worrying about things over which you have no control, and if you have control, you can do something about them instead of worrying.
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01-05-2008, 03:33 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg
There is no use worrying about things over which you have no control, and if you have control, you can do something about them instead of worrying.
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Or instead of posting on internet message boards like Op often does with these ridiculous threads...I still think his tagline needs some work....how about...
-TROLLS DIE
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01-05-2008, 03:39 PM
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#20
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Anyone invested for a long time should tune out the noise, IMO. Anyone currently retired should have 5 years of income in safer stuff that they can draw from while stocks are down. In the future when stocks recover you can sell some and replenish the "safe" bucket used for income.
Either way, a portfolio on autopilot should see this as a non-event. It can be nerve-wracking but that's why it's important to tune out the noise.
Economists have called 8 of the last 3 recessions anyway.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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