Possible Recession due to High Unemployment

[Wags]

An interesting read on Yahoo, the article " Jobless Rate Hits 5 Percent, a 2-Year High, Fanning Recession Fears".

Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

There is also a NBC News article "Recession Fears Stoke Political Debate"
Recession fears stoke political debate - Eye on the Economy - MSNBC.com

With the recent high cost of $100 plus for a barrel of oil (which has gone back to abut $98 plus), the credit crunch and the housing slump in some parts of our country one has to wonder if a recession is around the corner.

Unfortunately it will probably be the poor, the elderly and those on limited incomes (retirees, the disabled, etc...)that will suffer the most from high gas prices, high heating costs, high food prices, etc..., etc....., etc.....

GOD BLESS

 

[OAG]

Doom and Gloom - here is another one to add to the mix (which you mentioned) Forget oil, the new global crisis is food

 

[W2R]

These may be unrealistic "doom and gloom stories", but even if they are they can be extremely helpful to anyone planning ER.

At least, stories like this are helpful to me. They inspire me to think, "What would I do if this scenario really happened?" and map out a strategy to cope with higher fuel prices (live close enough to businesses and grocery store that I could just walk places, and don't live in an extremely harsh climate), or higher grocery prices (make sure I have enough land to raise my own vegetables, and enough slack in my ER budget to pay more for other things if necessary).

Then I can sleep like a baby at night.

 

[Wags]

These may be unrealistic "doom and gloom stories", but even if they are they can be extremely helpful to anyone planning ER.

At least, stories like this are helpful to me. They inspire me to think, "What would I do if this scenario really happened?" and map out a strategy to cope with higher fuel prices (live close enough to businesses and grocery store that I could just walk places, and don't live in an extremely harsh climate), or higher grocery prices (make sure I have enough land to raise my own vegetables, and enough slack in my ER budget to pay more for other things if necessary).

Then I can sleep like a baby at night.

I too look at posts like this as being extremely helpful because it opens one's mind to the plight of others and to some of the problems in the world with food, oil, living, etc..., etc.....

In my travels in the military I traveled to countries where to the poor having drinkable water and bread were considered a luxury. We as Americans have really been blessed.

R. Wood the article/link Forget oil, the new global crisis is food is an excellent read. Thank You.

On another thread I talked about the use of HEMP as a crop which can be harvested to make biofuels, clothes/garments, paper, and it has some medical use. Here are some interesting links on HEMP
Facts you should know about Hemp
Hempcar.org-Pollution: Petrol vs Hemp
ENERGY CRISIS: Ford And Diesel Never Intended Cars To Use Gasoline

GOD BLESS

 

[Retire Soon]

Another article that gives more likelihood to a recession:Jobless Rate Spooks Markets - WSJ.com

 

[Wags]

Another article that gives more likelihood to a recession:Jobless Rate Spooks Markets - WSJ.com

Outstanding article it hits the issue right on the spot. Thanks!

GOD BLESS

 

[danm]

It would be an amazing turn if there wasn't a severe recession this year. We would have truly learned how to raise the dead ...

 

[brewer12345]

Um, you guys are all invested with long term plans in mind, right? So shut off CNBC and go play.

 

[barbarus]

I've heard that hemp, if used in certain ways, can make one oblivious to the fact that there is a recession going on.

 

[calmloki]

I've heard that hemp, if used in certain ways, can make one oblivious to the fact that there is a recession going on.

Youy know, i thought the same thing, but see the link posted above: Forget oil, the new global crisis is food

If that's true - then getting the munchies could tend to speed up that downward spiral. OTOH, to quote Freewheelin' Franklin:

 

[UncleHoney]

I've heard that hemp, if used in certain ways, can make one oblivious to the fact that there is a recession going on.

I can think of two ways, if one doesn't work the other one will for sure.

 

[barbarus]

Uncle, the sure way only has to work once too.

 

[Rustic23]

http://www.bls.gov/cps/labor2006/chart1-2.pdf

The chart above indicates the unemployment rates through 2006. I do wonder why the unemployment rate is such a harbinger of recession when for most of the time it has been higher than it is now. For me, I'll stay with my allocations, trust Firecalc, and ignore those that are trying to scare folks. Does that mean I don't think a recession is coming? I don't know. I do know that people that post scare links often have an agenda.

 

[2B]

It's hard to get excited about a 5% unemployment rate. That's almost at the fabled "full employment" we've been seeing for several years.

I'm sure we are just now seeing the impact of the home building and mortgage industry lay offs of which there were tens of thousands. Yet we still managed to have a net addition of new jobs. I suspect that given a few months this would all disappear. The economy is still growing pretty well in the other areas.

I'm more concerned about the government doing stupid things to "stimulate" the economy that really screw things up.

The news industry loves to excite everyone with doom and gloom. Turn of the TV and read a book.

 

[barbarus]

I'm concerned about the impact on relatives and friends. Although I rate as a financial bum when judged by the economic position of the flush swells that post here, I'm rather well off compared to many of our fellow Americans.

The endangered folks that I know all have bachelors or higher degrees, work very hard and spend their money conservatively. For all that, they are in many cases within spitting distance of the brink of fiscal disaster. There is simply no realistic way that most of them could improve their lot in life.

More education? Well maybe an MD or JD, (they've already got other degrees)

Work harder? They could go from 2 jobs to 3 I guess. Sleep's so overrated!!

Save more? Cut back on Raman soup potatoes and Alpo.

 

[audreyh1]

There are always an endless number of folks to be worried about. So many things that could go wrong. What's the point?

Audrey

 

[Wags]

I'm concerned about the impact on relatives and friends. Although I rate as a financial bum when judged by the economic position of the flush swells that post here, I'm rather well off compared to many of our fellow Americans.

The endangered folks that I know all have bachelors or higher degrees, work very hard and spend their money conservatively. For all that, they are in many cases within spitting distance of the brink of fiscal disaster. There is simply no realistic way that most of them could improve their lot in life.

More education? Well maybe an MD or JD, (they've already got other degrees)

Work harder? They could go from 2 jobs to 3 I guess. Sleep's so overrated!!

Save more? Cut back on Raman soup potatoes and Alpo.

Great Post. I too am concerned about some of our fellow Americans who in some cases are just a paycheck away from financial disaster.

As for the replies calmloki, uncle honey and you gave on the HEMP - they were all great. I do know of some people that inhale hemp and they sit back and listen to the GREAT David Allen Coe.
YouTube - You Never Even Called Me By My Name!

GOD BLESS

 

[Moemg]

There is no use worrying about things over which you have no control, and if you have control, you can do something about them instead of worrying.

 

[maddythebeagle]

There is no use worrying about things over which you have no control, and if you have control, you can do something about them instead of worrying.

Or instead of posting on internet message boards like Op often does with these ridiculous threads...I still think his tagline needs some work....how about...

-TROLLS DIE

 

[ziggy29]

Anyone invested for a long time should tune out the noise, IMO. Anyone currently retired should have 5 years of income in safer stuff that they can draw from while stocks are down. In the future when stocks recover you can sell some and replenish the "safe" bucket used for income.

Either way, a portfolio on autopilot should see this as a non-event. It can be nerve-wracking but that's why it's important to tune out the noise.

Economists have called 8 of the last 3 recessions anyway.

 

[Wags]

Or instead of posting on internet message boards like Op often does with these ridiculous threads...I still think his tagline needs some work....how about...

-TROLLS DIE

I guess you did not like the GREAT David Allen Coe. But I hope that you will like Peter Frampton (to whom I am listening to as a write this post).
YouTube - Peter Frampton-Baby I love your way

GOD BLESS

 

[danm]

Funny thing about this board. Much as I like it, it seems that whenever a discussion that is out of the consensus starts, some individuals come out to break it up.

Recessions are interesting events, well worth the time it takes to study them.

 

[A854321]

Did I see Peter Frampton in a Geico ad? really.

 

[Wags]

There is an ABC News article "Investors May See Dividends Disappear".

ABC News: Investors May See Dividends Disappear

A paragraph from the article

Many investors rely on dividend payments as a source of income, and financial institutions in particular have been rich sources of large payouts. Their need to raise capital in the face of rising loan defaults, though, has made their dividends one of the first places they look to save money

If this is the case would it not hurt retirees the most or do you think it would hurt everyone? Might it be one of the contributing factors leading to a recession?

Yes that was Peter Frampton on the Geico ad.

GOD BLESS

 

[HFWR]

I'm maintaining my current allocation for now. My plan is to add more bonds as rates rise, which I expect they will do in the next few years. May lower my allocation to REITs. I bumped to 15% as prices fell/dividends rose recently, taking cash from MM and their falling rates.
Stock allocations have not changed much; used the remaining MM, and some cash from rebalancing PCRIX, to increase EM (VWO) to 10% from 5%.

As for "hemp", smoking it will result in a headache.

Cannibis indica, on the other hand... O0

"I smoke two joints in the morning, I smoke two joints at night.
I smoke two joints in the afternoon; it makes me feel alright
I smoke two joints in time of peace, and two in time of war.
I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints, and then I smoke two more..."

The Toys