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06-19-2010, 07:54 PM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
Critics also say the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:[17] The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
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Figures don't lie. But liars do figure.
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
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06-29-2010, 09:51 AM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,150
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Well..down about 230 to 9900 at the moment, anyhow.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
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06-29-2010, 10:07 AM
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#23
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Austin
Posts: 1,142
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For you moving average fans out there, this charts the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The 50 day crossing below the 200 day (as it just did) is a bearish signal.
from
Golden Cross Goes “Dark” | The Big Picture
__________________
Start by admitting
from cradle to tomb
it isn't that long a stay.
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06-29-2010, 12:14 PM
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#24
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Portland
Posts: 4,946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer
Well..down about 230 to 9900 at the moment, anyhow.
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Only 8,900 to go...
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06-29-2010, 03:18 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Remember, no matter what, it's always a buying opportunity.
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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06-29-2010, 03:51 PM
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#26
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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Prechter is a far more a long term position holder than market timer.
On July 27, 2007 with the S&P 500 Prechter announced he was expecting the market to fall to under 1,000 by 2016. He was reccommending all cash unless you had the wherewithall to under take some risk and then he recommended shorting the S&P500 futures at 1550. This would have cost $4,860 in margin with a maintenance margin of $3,860 per S&P minicontract. He reccommended exiting the trade on February 23, 2009 with the S&P500 at 750 for a profit of $40,000 per contract.
On January 21, 2010 with the S&P500 at 1116 he recommended reestablishing the short position in S&P500 futures. He can easily be accused of being overly bearish, because he certainly is very bearish. But make no mistake he is very specific in his recomendations which are long term in nature. Yet he is willing to wait years doing virtually nothing but holding, awaiting an extreme from which he can make a call.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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06-29-2010, 06:05 PM
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#27
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette
Dow 1000, eh?
If we treat the DJIA as dollars representing a composite share of the underlying companies, that is, the Dow at 10,460 represents a mythical share of an index fund at $10,460, we can look at underlying values.
The last four quarters of earnings come to $667/share.
The last four quarters of dividends come to $298/share.
The book value, the difference between assets and liabilities, or what one could get for a company by liquidating it, comes to $4,184 per share of our mythical index.
A Dow 1000 or lower as predicted by the Power of The Mystical Cycles would imply not just a drop in earnings, but significant destruction of the underlying basic assets, including factories, croplands, raw materials, and a valuation of labor close to zero, or a massive rise in the buying power of the dollar, shrinking the price of these assets (massive DEFLATION).
I just don't see it.
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I'm not at all arguing with your logic. Just bear in mind that the market tends to overdo things based on emotion. For example, we had the internet bubble back in 2000 where the Nasdaq had little to nothing to do with its own value.
But this prediction of the Dow going to 1000 strikes me just as ludicrous as the prediction of the Dow going to 36000 about 10 years ago.
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06-29-2010, 08:10 PM
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#28
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 44
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I plan to make money no matter which way the market swings-- by working at my job. Retired people who "invest" in the market have the most to fear, which is contrary to the idea of retirement.
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06-29-2010, 08:13 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
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The billy goats are on the bridge again...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-29-2010, 08:14 PM
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#30
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilspill
I plan to make money no matter which way the market swings-- by working at my job.
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Hopefully you won't get laid off.
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06-29-2010, 08:18 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
The billy goats are on the bridge again...
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Don't go getting gruff with me...
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Hopefully you won't get laid off.
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Not to worry. I'm sure there will be plenty of jobs for oilspill if the Dow drops to 1000...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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06-29-2010, 08:46 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
Prechter is a far more a long term position holder than market timer.
On July 27, 2007 with the S&P 500 Prechter announced he was expecting the market to fall to under 1,000 by 2016. He was reccommending all cash unless you had the wherewithall to under take some risk and then he recommended shorting the S&P500 futures at 1550. This would have cost $4,860 in margin with a maintenance margin of $3,860 per S&P minicontract. He reccommended exiting the trade on February 23, 2009 with the S&P500 at 750 for a profit of $40,000 per contract.
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Do you happen to know what his maximum drawdown during the period in which he held was? Also, do you know whether he suggested shorting an out month or nearer months and rolling?
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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06-29-2010, 09:35 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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Every time I see this thread and the word/name 'Prechter'...I feel like I'm at the gynecologist's office.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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06-29-2010, 09:56 PM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
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Or the proctologist.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
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06-29-2010, 10:03 PM
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#35
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,844
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Do you happen to know what his maximum drawdown during the period in which he held was? Also, do you know whether he suggested shorting an out month or nearer months and rolling?
Ha
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He suggested rolling nearer months. There was never a margin call beyond the initial required margin and reserve as the most the S&P500 gained was just a couple of points over the entry point in October.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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06-29-2010, 10:04 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
He suggested rolling nearer months. There was never a margin call beyond the initial required margin and reserve as the most the S&P500 gained was just a couple of points over the entry point in October.
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Wow. Thnx.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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06-29-2010, 10:06 PM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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....eh...anyway we look at it...it's painful....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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06-30-2010, 06:19 AM
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#38
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilspill
I plan to make money no matter which way the market swings-- by working at my job. Retired people who "invest" in the market have the most to fear, which is contrary to the idea of retirement.
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OilSpill you have nothing to fear if you are working, but;
Lets hope you are never disabled from a car accident or falling off a ladder or something and find yourself needing long term care at home or in a nursing home and unable to work and enjoy life.
Let's hope you don't have a stroke, heart attack or other malady preventing you from working and enjoying life
Let's hope your industry never experiences a downturn and you lose your job.
Lets hope you are never sued and lose all you have and work the rest of your life to pay a settlement.
Lets hope you never get divorced and have to work to pay alimony and child support for many years to someone else.
Lets hope you never find any hobbies or passionate interests you want to pursue and distract you from your desire to work.
Lets hope you live forever and never have to worry how many "good" years you have left to fully enjoy your life should you ever decide to retire.
Good luck with your life plan!
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
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