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01-01-2008, 01:41 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 4,892
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Predictions for 2008?
OK, what do you think the market will do in 2008?
Specify a percentage and which index or fund you want to measure your prediction against.
Me, I'll stick with +10.7% and VFINX.
2Cor521
__________________
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01-01-2008, 07:14 AM
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#2
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gone traveling
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,146
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-5%
Recession is in the cards. Don't like it but I believe we are going to have to deal with its ugly visit sometime late summer.
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01-01-2008, 08:44 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
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I'm guessing the S & P 500 will go up 12% in 2008.
Interest rates will not be going up. If anything, they will be going down. The housing problem will stabilize, we'll see a reduction in troop levels in Iraq, and oil prices will be the same or cheaper.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
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01-01-2008, 08:48 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Central, Ohio, USA
Posts: 2,632
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5.8%.
__________________
Vietnam Veteran, CW4 USA, Retired 1979
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01-01-2008, 08:53 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,656
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5%
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-01-2008, 09:21 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 328
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US dollar will continue to fall against Asian currencies, but will rise a little against the Euro in the second half of the year.
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01-01-2008, 10:28 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,032
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I'm going to take a wild contrarian guess that 2008 will be better than 2007, since a: 2007 wasn't so hot and b: so many people are expecting a recession.
+ 8%
Audrey
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01-01-2008, 10:49 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,320
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All of these predictions are useless without knowing what exactly they are predicting. Are you predicting the percentage increase in the S&P 500? The total return of the S&P 500? The total return of the total stock market as measured by what? The increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Index? The total return of the Dow? All of these numbers can vary by several percentage points.
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01-01-2008, 10:55 AM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 372
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I think that earnings will be fine in '08, and I don't see a recession, but I believe that US market multiples will contract in anticipation of single party government beginning in '09. I believe (and I believe the market believes) that divided government is the best form of government and leads to the most stable economic environment. So put me down for -5% on the S&P for 2008.
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01-01-2008, 11:15 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,320
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceGeek
So put me down for -5% on the S&P for 2008.
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Are you referring to the percentage change in the S&P 500 index, or, the total return of the S&P 500 index as measured by a particular index fund? This poll is useless.
The S&P 500 started 2007 at 1418.30, and ended at 1468.36. That's an increase of 3.53%. By contrast, Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund had a total return of 5.39%, which is almost 2% higher. So what are you predicting??
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01-01-2008, 11:24 AM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 450
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S&p 500 -5.5%
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01-01-2008, 11:27 AM
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#12
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 24
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Spy, + 14.21 %
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01-01-2008, 11:47 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
I'm going to take a wild contrarian guess that 2008 will be better than 2007, since a: 2007 wasn't so hot and b: so many people are expecting a recession.
+ 8%
Audrey
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I was thinking that also.
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01-01-2008, 12:05 PM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustCurious
Are you referring to the percentage change in the S&P 500 index, or, the total return of the S&P 500 index as measured by a particular index fund? This poll is useless.
The S&P 500 started 2007 at 1418.30, and ended at 1468.36. That's an increase of 3.53%. By contrast, Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund had a total return of 5.39%, which is almost 2% higher. So what are you predicting??
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I'm predicting a percentage change in the S&P Index itself of -5%, the total return would be less negative due to dividends.
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01-01-2008, 12:50 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustCurious
All of these predictions are useless without knowing what exactly they are predicting. Are you predicting the percentage increase in the S&P 500? The total return of the S&P 500? The total return of the total stock market as measured by what? The increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Index? The total return of the Dow? All of these numbers can vary by several percentage points.
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Just Curious - pick the benchmark!
Audrey
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01-01-2008, 12:53 PM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 987
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Don't care.
Just finished funding my Fidelity IMA (Income Management Account) for 2008 this morning.
Still have 3 years gross income remaining in MM accounts so I'm not going to be too concerned till 4 years from now  ...
- Ron
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01-01-2008, 01:17 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,396
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01-01-2008, 04:20 PM
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#18
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 376
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S&P 500 index +7%
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