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Old 11-12-2017, 11:13 AM   #41
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Some of us will base difficult real-life decisions on the consequences of these changes.

For example, if we can't deduct state/local income taxes or property taxes, it will make financial sense for us to move to another state, even though we would prefer not to.

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Originally Posted by marko View Post
All of this might, or might not even come to pass.

In the end, just tell me what I owe and I'll write the check. Can't do anything about it either way and --at least for me--playing what-if doesn't help.
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:27 AM   #42
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We will be moderately better off under the House plan vs the Senate plan due to the House having a temporary $300 credit for taxpayer, spouse and, in our case, an over 17 dependent child. So, $900 in credits for a few years.
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:37 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Where does the 1.5T number come from? If it is from the CBO, as I understand it, they are required to do a 'static' model, and there are some 'dynamic' models that include the estimated effect of increased business activity from lowering corporate taxes, and I think, returning funds to the US.

Sorry, I don't have sources for that, and don't have time right now to look them up - I haven't paid too much attention to these proposals, as like others have pointed out, they could change a lot and may not get anything passed. But I think the 'static' versus 'dynamic' modeling may be the key to your question.

-ERD50
No, the House and Senate's own scoring came up with just under 1.5T, and they had set themselves a new limit of adding 1.5T to the debt in the new budget that was passed recently.

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The Joint Committee on Taxation said the bill would increase the federal deficit by $1.487 trillion over the next 10 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump...budget-2017-11

CBO says it's going to add $1.7T. The bill writers are trying to keep it under $1.5T so that it can be passed under the reconciliation rules which only require a simple majority.
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:49 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
CBO says it's going to add $1.7T. The bill writers are trying to keep it under $1.5T so that it can be passed under the reconciliation rules which only require a simple majority.
Doubt they'll get 60 votes so I'll worry when it happens (& my tax bill goes up)
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:54 AM   #45
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Doubt they'll get 60 votes so I'll worry when it happens (& my tax bill goes up)
It doesn't require 60 votes, it only requires 51. (Or 50 votes plus VP tiebreaker?)

I explained that in an earlier post replying to your question..
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:00 PM   #46
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It doesn't require 60 votes, it only requires 51. (Or 50 votes plus VP tiebreaker?)

I explained that in an earlier post replying to your question..
I thought you said if it stays below 1.5T. New estimates are between 1.49T and 1.7T (CBO - they'll need to review again).

Plus
1. have the home building lobbyists contacted the Senators yet?
2. bills are always being modified
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:06 PM   #47
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I thought you said if it stays below 1.5T. New estimates are between 1.49T and 1.7T (CBO).

Plus:
1. have the home building lobbyists contacted the Senators yet?
2. bills areally always being modified
I did, sorry. I suppose I'm expecting that they can somehow juggle enough to shave $200B off if necessary, and I'm not sure who's scoring wins. By some measures they haven't exceeded the $1.5T limit.

Lets just say the bill writers are highly motivated not to exceed $1.5T
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:10 PM   #48
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Of course they are but builders are just as motivated to keep home ownership a financially prudent decision and congressmen need money to run for reelection next year
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:23 PM   #49
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I expect the mortgage interest deduction is the likeliest to survive the Congressional sausage-making. (I won't say why because that would be political).

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Of course they are but builders are just as motivated to keep home ownership a financially prudent decision and congressmen need money to run for reelection next year
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:35 PM   #50
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Quote:
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I know I'm slow on the uptake but if we're going to pay more + add 1.5T to the federal deficit, why are 'we' doing it?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ket-2017-11-03
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:45 PM   #51
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The Federal Government will collect $1.5 trillion less revenue over the next 10 years.

The CBO says $1.7 trillion.

There are no corresponding spending cuts - well maybe $1B (1000 times less).

If you want to see a breakdown of where the cuts are going, here is one: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Will Cost $1.5 Trillion | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
CRFB is a great source for getting unbiased data. Whenever I see its president, Maya MacGuineas, on TV, I always pay attention to what she says.

How I would do would depend a lot on 2 things: (1) if I have any large, unexpected medical expenses in a given year, and (2) if I have any large, unexpected cap gain distributions in a given year.

As I wrote in another thread, I will be getting a large cap gain distribution at the end of the year, according to Fido's recently released estimates. This does 2 things - it pushes me over the ACA subsidy cliff, and it reduces my deductible medical expenses so I'll be taking the standard, not itemized deduction.

But large medical expenses, which can include rising HI premiums beyond what the SLCSP is in my locality, can keep me itemizing my deductions. So, losing that deduction will likely offset any small savings from the increased standard deduction. The SD may double, but losing the personal exemption nearly cancels out the higher SD. For single filers like me, the two combined for 2017 is $10,400, not much less than the ~$12,000 under the proposals. It takes only an extra ~$1,600 in itemized deductions, typically from med expenses, to make the proposal worse for me.

Losing the state income tax deduction would eliminate the bunching I have done a few times over the years. My best way to bunch is to put two 4th quarter state estimated income tax payments into a single calendar year. Not being able to take the state income tax deduction would put an end to that practice.

In the linked CRFB chart, I found it interesting that the value of the tax cuts from increasing the SD and increased child credit (1.56T) is roughly the same as the tax increase from repealing the personal exemption (1.6T). Doing only those three things and nothing else would be revenue-neutral and achieve tax simplification. hmmmmmm.........
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:53 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
CBO says it's going to add $1.7T. The bill writers are trying to keep it under $1.5T so that it can be passed under the reconciliation rules which only require a simple majority.
My life is not impacted at all by any government debt amounts. None whatsoever. Tax bill or no tax bill.

Maybe I am missing the direct impact? Has anyone here ever experienced a direct correlation of the debt amounts to their personal life, either positive or negative?

My birthdays still occur and Christmas still arrives on December 25.
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Old 11-12-2017, 01:58 PM   #53
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Quote:
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My life is not impacted at all by any government debt amounts. None whatsoever. Tax bill or no tax bill.

Maybe I am missing the direct impact? Has anyone here ever experienced a direct correlation of the debt amounts to their personal life, either positive or negative?

My birthdays still occur and Christmas still arrives on December 25.
Oh, everything is rosy until spending cuts come into the picture.
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Old 11-12-2017, 06:48 PM   #54
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Thanks for the interesting discussion.

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