Probability of Success at varying % Equity AA

[LRDave]

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Originally Posted by OldShooter Yes. I think the ubiquitous "risk tolerance assessment" questionnaires found on the internet are completely useless. I have always liked Fred Schwed's discussion of the issue: There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures. Nor can any description that I might offer here even approximate what it feels like to lose a real chunk of money that you used to own. The first hit is the worst. 1987 for us. With each subsequent wild ride it gets easier to relax and enjoy the views. We have never sold even a dime's worth of stock in any downturn.

In those events, I was a younger man and still working and saving. I just didn't look at my "retirement account" statements when they arrived monthly in the mail.

This next downturn (assuming it ever arrives) will be the first for us when our "retirement account" is more than just the target for our saving goals. We won't have to sell equities - even if it lasts 10 years or more. But I am not sure how I'll do in the nap department. DW will do fine.

[Midpack]

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Originally Posted by Callitaday2022 Very interesting, but I do need to leave a legacy for one of my sons care...link to other comparison please and thankyou .

FIRECALC allows that choice too, just use it. It’s the last button on the last tab. FIRECALC is more versatile than some folks realize...

https://firecalc.com/

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Leave some money in the portfolio for my estate There should be a minimum of $__ left in the portfolio at all times, including at the end.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by LRDave In those events, I was a younger man and still working and saving. I just didn't look at my "retirement account" statements when they arrived monthly in the mail. This next downturn (assuming it ever arrives) will be the first for us when our "retirement account" is more than just the target for our saving goals. We won't have to sell equities - even if it lasts 10 years or more. But I am not sure how I'll do in the nap department. DW will do fine.

You'll nap well, too. Being self-aware is the first step plus you will get coaching from DW and from here. Not to worry; ten years is a more than adequate buffer.

[Dd852]

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Originally Posted by Midpack History says you WILL “really be tested,” several times if you have more than 20 years in retirement. I’m glad I was invested in 1987, 2000 & 2008 and I read The Four Pillars of Investing* - I believe I have a good idea how I’ll react, stay the course. If history is FAR worse than anything we’ve ever seen, there may not be any $ defense anyway. * before Dr Bernstein lost faith in all investors.

Absolutely and I know that - I just can’t be wholly sure of my psychological reaction without a paycheck. So I do what I can to massage my own psyche — keep a year and a half expenses in cash, for example, and have a current dividend yield of about 60% of the year’s expenses. SO those together should keep me from being twitchy and doing anything silly!

[FREE866]

If one of your goals is having a higher ending balance the heavier stock portfolios--90%+ show a SUBSTANTIALLY higher balance than 50/50 over a couple of decades.

[footenote]

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Originally Posted by Midpack FIRECALC allows that choice too, just use it. It’s the last button on the last tab. FIRECALC is more versatile than some folks realize... https://firecalc.com/

Thanks, Midpack, for reminding folks about this feature.

(I use it as a long-term care backstop, setting the average cost of total (multi-year) LTC as always available. That means we may leave a legacy we don't necessarily want/need to leave, but it's a useful way to model the problem if you don't have LTC insurance.)

[Tiger8693]

This is a great thread! Very interesting about the "remaining value vs % equity", and I think I will try to run the same analysis to and show the graph of remaining portfolio value as well, unless you have that information already? Would be interesting I think...

Thanks for this one!

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiger8693 This is a great thread! Very interesting about the "remaining value vs % equity", and I think I will try to run the same analysis to and show the graph of remaining portfolio value as well, unless you have that information already? Would be interesting I think... Thanks for this one!

The first thread included residuals, high-low-average, for 95% success at least.

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...on-101660.html

[FREE866]

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Originally Posted by Midpack The first thread included residuals, high-low-average, for 95% success at least. http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...on-101660.html

very cool


do you have a graph for 15 years?

[Tiger8693]

Oh, thanks! I'll go back to that thread and check it out.

[Midpack]

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Originally Posted by FREE866 very cool do you have a graph for 15 years?

Sorry no. My intent was only to show comparative results, not actual numbers. The numbers are past history, so I wouldn’t necessarily put too much faith in them - rear view mirror...