Promising Editorial On SS "Are Benefits Safe" from AARP Bulletin 11-2018

IF the 2034 insolvency year holds, and no changes are made, and benefits are reduced to ~77%, I may well reconsider delaying taking SS at 70 (for me, this is 2036)....

So, assuming they don't fix it, should I take SS at 67?
 
Thanks for this. I still think it is encouraging considering all the commentary and speculation we have all had here over the years about SS.
I may be overly cynical but I've always believed there are ulterior motives behind all the doom and gloom "Social Security is going broke" speculation: convince the younger generations that SS won't be there for them and they won't be so angry when the special interests wind up eventually cutting it back to nothing. That's been a goal of some for decades.
 
I have no problem with means testing SS despite the fact I suspect I'll be impacted.

I think the problem with means testing is that it's hard to do. That's why whether to tax SS is based upon income not means.

If you mean income as 'means' I think there's a bunch of threads here about how folks easily adjust their income for ACA reasons.

If you mean net worth, there are similar threads here about mechanisms (trusts, gifts etc) that address that and I suspect its easier to do than income. I know of a few folks who live extremely well but have no real net worth of their own.

As far as the fairness of it all, I'm reminded of our Mass income tax forms that allow you to check a box and pay the original higher tax. It was put in place as some folks were outraged at the 'unfairness' of a tax cut. Last time I looked, only about 1000 people per year are still outraged enough to check that box and pay the higher tax.
 
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I think the problem with means testing is that it's hard to do. That's why whether to tax SS is based upon income not means.

If you mean income as 'means' I think there's a bunch of threads here about how folks easily adjust their income for ACA reasons.

If you mean net worth, there are similar threads here about mechanisms (trusts, gifts etc) that address that and I suspect its easier to do than income. I know of a few folks who live extremely well but have no real net worth of their own.
I think it's a lot harder when you are seniors over 70 receiving both social security and RMDs.
 
I think it's a lot harder when you are seniors over 70 receiving both social security and RMDs.

Exactly. Most of us who manage incomes for ACA purposes, are not receiving SS.
 
I think it's a lot harder when you are seniors over 70 receiving both social security and RMDs.

Agreed.

That's why one would start talking to a good estate planning attorney around age 60-65.
 
Agreed.

That's why one would start talking to a good estate planning attorney around age 60-65.
If you are trying to pass things on to the next generation - sure. But we aren't.

You still really can't get away from recognizing SS income and RMD income.

If you gift it all away to qualified charities - that's another matter.
 
I may be overly cynical but I've always believed there are ulterior motives behind all the doom and gloom "Social Security is going broke" speculation: convince the younger generations that SS won't be there for them and they won't be so angry when the special interests wind up eventually cutting it back to nothing. That's been a goal of some for decades.

"Social Security is going broke" is just math - not speculation. You can fix it by taxing the young, cutting benefits to the old, or some combination thereof - that is also just math.
 
The fundamental issue with means testing is it creates a powerful disincentive to work, save, and invest. Work hard, LBYM, save a lot to supplement SS in retirement... only to see SS reduced or eliminated due to the level of savings. Meanwhile those who work just enough to get by, spend all their earnings, and save nothing toward retirement are rewarded with full SS benefits. It won't take long at all for young people to correctly conclude that working hard, saving for the future, and investing in American businesses has no payback. That could have disastrous consequences for the economy.

Also, as a practical matter, any means test based on assets would be extremely difficult and inefficient to enforce. Assets are incredibly easy to hide... convert your IRA to a SPIA.... Done! It will require an army of IRS agents just to unravel the obvious stuff. Just look at the tactics being used today to circumvent the means test on Medicaid LTC benefits and you get a glimpse into the financial gamesmanship that will inevitably ensue to keep one's assets below the threshold for SS benefit reduction.

All that said, means testing does seem to have a certain common-sense appeal for the reasons posted by youbet and others. But it will need to be implemented in a way which is easy to administer and which does not create a disastrous disincentive to work and save. Subtle, indirect things like increasing the current taxation of SS benefits based on income. You could also phase out COLAs based on income. Include SS income in the phase-out of other tax benefits. Or perhaps phase out benefits directly, but only starting at incomes above some very high level that everyone could support, like $1M/yr.
 
I am vehemently against means testing, but not because it would impact us. We would be fine... our kids would just get less but they aren't really expecting to get anything.

I'm against it because it is bad public policy and violates "the deal" made with millions of taxpayers. For years we have received statements telling us that we would receive $x,xxx per month at our FRA based on what we paid in. There is a big difference between receiving less because the money isn't there and receiving less because someone decided to change the rules to favor one group over another. Means testing will forever undermine the popularity of social security and change it into just another welfare program.

Means testing based on wealth will be hard to administer... how will pensions be counted? Military pensions? Retiree medical benefits? Real estate?

Means testing Social Security would fundamentally change it from social insurance (a universal system of benefits earned by all who have paid in) to welfare (a system requiring you to prove you are needy in order to qualify for benefits). As social insurance, Social Security provides a foundation of retirement security, family life insurance, and disability income protection for virtually all American workers. Benefits are an earned right based on earnings from which premiums are deducted, as payroll taxes. Social Security uses an earnings replacement concept, recognizing that there is a relationship between your standard of living while working and the benefit you need in order to achieve income security in retirement. The benefit formula already replaces a higher portion of past earnings for low earners than for higher earners. Means testing would violate many of the key principles that have made Social Security so effective and popular for 77 years. For example:

  • A means test is a penalty on thrift. It creates a huge disincentive for people to save, buy other insurance, or work part-time in retirement; or for employers to provide pensions to their workers. With a means test, anything else you have reduces your benefit amount.
  • A means test undermines the principle that benefits are an earned right. It destroys the link between premiums paid from wages and the benefits that are designed to replace part of those wages.
  • A means test would be far more intrusive and expensive to administer than Social Security is today. Applicants for benefits would have to undergo investigations of their income and asset holdings, possibly including the income and assets of others in their households. Investigations would have to be updated frequently as income and wealth change, and benefit levels would have to be adjusted accordingly.

Most important, means testing would likely cut benefits for the broad middle class, because only a very small share of benefits goes to wealthy people. Only 2 percent of benefits are paid to people with more than $100,000 in other income. One plan, which features means testing and other Social Security benefit cuts, illustrates the problem. This plan would shrink total Social Security benefits paid by 45 percent over 25 years. To cut spending so much—especially when the baby boomers will be in their 70s and 80s and counting heavily on Social Security—would mean deep cuts for middle-class retirees, such as nurses, teachers, firefighters, office workers, and small-business owners.

Means testing Social Security would undermine much of its core strength, turning it into an unpopular welfare program while sharply reducing the adequacy of Social Security benefits for middle-class baby boomers and younger American workers.


https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aa...ocial-security-benefits-AARP-ppi-econ-sec.pdf
 
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The other type of change that could be made is to increase the FRA. However, I think it’s already high enough and given how many people collect at 62, it might not be too impactful. The main concern I have with the FRA is that it needs to be “means” tested. Some jobs need to allow for an earlier retirement than others. I could have stayed at my desk until 70 unless I suffered some medical condition. My dad worked until 70. My brother, on the other hand just turned 60 and he’s struggling. He’s actually in good health, but working construction is not easy on the body. I don’t know how that could be administered, but I’d like to see that discussed. Our life expectancies are significantly higher than when SS was first developed and even with the increase to 67 we’re living way longer than SS expected.

I think financial means testing is a bad direction. If we’re going there, I’d rather see the SS limit eliminated so that the tax gets paid by higher earning individuals and by individuals that are still working. Sure, it was nice when the limit was reached and my checks got a little bigger, but I would have been fine without it.
 
I have no problem with means testing SS despite the fact I suspect I'll be impacted. Don't want struggling working families subsidizing me........
I have a real problem with means testing. This makes SS more of a welfare program, than an earned benefit. See pb4uski's post above, which says it much more eloquently than I can.

I'd have been fine with opting out of SS and being allowed to invest the same amount in a tax-deferred account, but that wasn't an option.
 
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I'm opposed to means testing based on after-retirement assets or income.

As others have said, this punishes thrift and/or is too easy to evade.

I don't worry about the "welfare" word. You can call it anything you like, but SS is a system that takes money from current workers and gives it to former workers. The younger workers didn't make that deal, someone who came before them did.

OTOH, I'm fine with "means testing" SS benefits based on pre-retirement opportunities to save. We already do that by providing smaller increments in the benefit formula as indexed wages rise. I think we should do more of that. If $12,000 per year is enough to provide food and housing for low income workers, so they aren't begging on the street, than $12,000 per year is also enough for high income workers.
 
I may be overly cynical but I've always believed there are ulterior motives behind all the doom and gloom "Social Security is going broke" speculation: convince the younger generations that SS won't be there for them and they won't be so angry when the special interests wind up eventually cutting it back to nothing. That's been a goal of some for decades.
If "doom and gloom" means (baseless) claims that SS benefits will be zero, then my observation is that it's mostly from the financial services industry that wants to scare young people into saving.

If "doom and gloom" means that, unless congress changes the law, benefits will drop around 23% sometime close to 2034, then that's just best guess assumptions + math. The techies doing those calculations are just trying to provide information to the public and to policymakers.
 
I have a real problem with means testing. This makes SS more of a welfare program, than an earned benefit. See pb4uski's post above, which says it much more eloquently than I can.

They already have made SS a quasi-welfare program: if you maxed out SS wages every year of your life, the amount of your SS benefit that you eventually receive will be substantially less %-wise than someone who made 30% of the max SS wages.

Been hearing of the demise of SS since I started working 45 years ago.

And SS has been in a death spiral long before you started working 45 years ago.

For instance - did you know that when SS first started, they only taxed the worker just 1% of wages (the employer didn't contribute anything!). Then it gradually increased from just 1% all the way to the current 12.4% total it is today. And the FRA has increased. Oh, and they also double tax up to 30% of your SS benefit that you receive - money that you were already taxed on when you first earned it!

If they never did any of that, SS would have long-ago been defunct many, many times over. So, yes, you have been hearing about the demise of SS for a long time, because it has been perhaps THE longest instance of kicking-the-can-down-the-road in modern political history!
 
.....Oh, and they also double tax up to 30% of your SS benefit that you receive - money that you were already taxed on when you first earned it! ....

Please explain this double tax up to 30% of your SS benefit.

Actually, a small portion of what your receive is money that you were already taxed on.... the vast majority of what you receive has never been taxed.

A man reaching age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 84.3. A woman turning age 65 today can expect to live, on average, until age 86.7.

Take your FRA benefit from page 1 of your SS statment and multiply it by the number of months from your FRA to age 85.5.... that is an estimate of what you will receive.

What you paid in is shown on page 3 of your SS statement...Estimated taxes paid for Social Security.... You paid: Multiply that by 80% since about 20% goes toward funding disability benefits.

Divide the result above... what you paid that was previously taxed by the estimate of what you will receive.... I get about 16%... so 16% of what I receive is based on what I paid that was previously taxed.

An interesting coincidence that for many people about 15% of SS is not txed and the remaining 85% is... right?
 
"Social Security is going broke" is just math - not speculation. You can fix it by taxing the young, cutting benefits to the old, or some combination thereof - that is also just math.

You could also get a lot more young workers into the system. That's math.
But that doesn't seem to be the direction the country is moving right now. That's not math - it's politics.
 
So I take it, that a few people here believe this chart?
 

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You could also get a lot more young workers into the system. That's math.
But that doesn't seem to be the direction the country is moving right now. That's not math - it's politics.

Maybe it's a localized thing.

I know about a dozen 23 to 30 year olds; every one of them has a decent job, some of them making 6 figures already.

(My deliberately unemployed, video playing, pizza eating, living in the basement niece and nephew excluded! [emoji23])
 
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I didn't see anything new. It basically says we're OK now, but something has to change by 2034 or we will get 77% of projected benefits.

If anything I'm disheartened that no is planning to address it anytime soon, as the sooner the shortfall is addressed, the less painful it will be for payers and payees - third rail yada yada, thanks to voters, not politicians. Anyone who doesn't consider both payers and payees is being grossly unfair IMO, and AARP has been notoriously and selfishly biased toward payees (their mission), which is why I won't have anything to do with them. I think the pain should be shared, I can't imagine seniors would insist on full benefits as it's their children and grandchildren who would have to make up the difference, and they probably won't see benefits exactly as they are today. But we've all beat that to death.

I built my plan on no SS, though I expect to see 70% of projected benefits. If it's more, gravy...

Those of us younger baby boomers already took a hit with the last "fix" when they raised the FRA from 65 to 67. Personally, I don't want to take another pay cut once I finally start SS. Sure, it will suck for my kids and grandkids, but I'll probably make that up with a bigger inheritance.
 
Those of us younger baby boomers already took a hit with the last "fix" when they raised the FRA from 65 to 67. Personally, I don't want to take another pay cut once I finally start SS. Sure, it will suck for my kids and grandkids, but I'll probably make that up with a bigger inheritance.
That attitude really surprises me, but so be it. We are fortunate to lived during a time when a well paying career was much easier than it is for today's 20-30 somethings starting out. We don't even have kids or grandkids, and I can't dismiss the generations saddled with supporting SS for us with "sure it will suck" for them. Especially when I am certain they won't be getting the SS benefit we will.

Again, that's why shared sacrifice WRT SS for 2034 and beyond is the only fair answer to me, and it gives us all a chance to plan accordingly. And the sooner Congress acts the less pain there will be, but I am not holding my breath by any means.
 
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Those of us younger baby boomers already took a hit with the last "fix" when they raised the FRA from 65 to 67. ....

While I was impacted by that change as well, it is irrational to expect that FRA would remain constant in light of longer lives due to medical advances. The system and premiums were designed based on x years of retirement/collecting benefits... if the x years changes due to better longevity, then the FRA needs to adjust accordingly. Candidly, we are probably overdue for another adjustment of FRAs.
 
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