Public Pensions Bankrupt???

[Marshac]

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Originally Posted by Arif So let me get this straight. The private sector has the benefits safety net that the gov't set up (PB something or other)

The PBGC isn't in the best of health either.

[MasterBlaster]

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Originally Posted by setab "Underfunded" pensions is somewhat of a red herring.* The assumption in these scare articles is that there isn't enough money if eveything had to be paid today.* The fact is, everything doe not have to be paid today, thank goodness.* What worries me far more than actual lack of funds is that these "underfunded" claims will be used to panic people into agreeing to break promises made to hundereds of thousand public employees who accepted less than market wages for their entire careers with the promise of these DB pensions as a type of deffered benefit.* We have already seen the private sector get away with total breaches of trust, confidence and contract to the employees who made them huge profits.* I have wondered how long it would take for a similar attempt to be made to treat public pensions the same way.* It was wrong in the private sector and it would be equally wrong, at least, to break commitments to public pensioners (and, yes, I am one), that were relied on for 25-30 years.* setab

Change the word underfunded to unfunded to get a better drift of the problem. We as a nation have promised more to people both in and out of government than can be realistically delivered. Big funding problems occur not just with public employee pensions but with social security and medicare. Add in all the problems with massive public debt at all levels of government and - "Houston We've got a a problem".

The sad truth is that we have promised much more than we can ever deliver. Increased taxes alone won't save us. The only option we have at this stage is to wait and watch to see which groups get hit hard and which ones keep their "promises". Things are gonna change for the worse. It is inevitable.

[Marshac]

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Originally Posted by MasterBlaster Things are gonna change for the worse. It is inevitable.

Exactly why I don't even factor in SS or a DB into my calculations... I stick to the factors I have some control over and leave it at that. If the other two pan out, awesome, if not, i'm not screwed.

[setab]

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Originally Posted by MasterBlaster Change the word underfunded to unfunded to get a better drift of the problem.

I paid 7-9 percent of my income into my retirement system for 27 years. (IN addition to the 10 percent to TSP) If there isn't money there, someone took it.

setab

[MasterBlaster]

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Originally Posted by setab I paid 7-9 percent of my income into my retirement system for 27 years. (IN addition to the 10 percent to TSP)* If there isn't money there, someone took it. setab

Quarterly statements aside, I take it that you are under the impression that your money went into your (lockbox) account rather than being thrown into the giant abyss know as the federal budget.

Keep saying it... I paid... they promised...I paid... they promised...

maybe that will make you feel better.

[Spanky]

... and they may never deliver...

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by setab I paid 7-9 percent of my income into my retirement system for 27 years. (IN addition to the 10 percent to TSP)* If there isn't money there, someone took it. setab

Texas is underfunded by about $8 billion the last time I looked... which was awhile ago.. they had something like $80 or $90 billion in assets...


To all.. there is a difference in the city and states.. they DO have a fund set aside.. look at CALPERS... one of the biggest pot of money around.. But, the future benefits are huge!!! And, the politicians continue to try and make it even better.. Houston had promised a higher percentage to retirees awhile back.. and had to take it away as they made a major calculation error.. it is easy to balance the budget today by promissing something in the future which some other politician has to worry about...

As for the statement that public employees are paid less.. I saw a study that refuted this fact.. they are paid 'about' the same overall (on average)... but, their pension is like 5 or more times better than the private sector..

[kz]

Public pensions are 5 times better than private ones?? I'd love to read that study. I admit I have a great public pension but I don't know of anyone from the private sector that gets only 1/5th of what I get. Heck I don't of anyone who isn't getting darn near the same as me or better.
I really would love to read that study.

[setab]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterBlaster Quarterly statements aside, I take it that you are under the impression that your money went into your (lockbox) account rather than being thrown into the giant abyss know as the federal budget. Keep saying it... I paid... they promised...I paid... they promised... maybe that will make you feel better.

MB,

I don't believe you are correct. *The CSRS system is separate, as is the FERS system. *That being said, I find almost any scenario possible these days, but what are you suggesting as an alternative? *If the Federal pension system goes down, what makes you think any private investing you do is safe? *We can all run around shouting the sky is falling, or we can all take a deep breath, and realize that many stories such as the one that started this thread are highly sensationalized pieces of drivel that sell newspapers in spite of their lack of factual bases.

setab

[katfish]

Skilled public employees, as least at the county level here in South Jersey
are paid, apparently, less then the private sector. I base this on the fact
are authority was unable to find an electrican at the salary we offered.
WE are unable to attract qualified experienced engineers. We are unable
to find, at the salary we will pay, qualified tech. personal. We require
skill levels but we don't pay. WHAT we offer is membership in DP state
plan and good medical. THATS all we offer. Its apparent NJ wants to
cut its DP pension plan. Since all local and county workers are members
I wonder how we are going to find the qualified people to operate water
and wastewater plants. Health departments, highway tech. people
and it goes on and on. You don't realize how many people work for the
public and make life a little better here ... If the public wants a new deal
they can have it .

[Texas Proud]

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Originally Posted by kz Public pensions are 5 times better than private ones?? I'd love to read that study. I admit I have a great public pension but I don't know of anyone from the private sector that gets only 1/5th of what I get. Heck I don't of anyone who isn't getting darn near the same as me or better. I really would love to read that study.

Let's see.... my sister worked as a school teacher for 41 years.. she is getting over 90% of her three best years salary as a pension... I do not know of ANY public company that would pay anywhere close to that percentage..

If I worked that long at my company, and bought an annuity based on my cash balance account (my pension), added the SS I would get to make it apples to apples (which was not in the study).. then I THINK I might make close to 30% of my salary... and that is being optimistic.. probably more like 25%... *

Since I read it in the newpaper... I doubt if I could find it again..

[MasterBlaster]

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Originally Posted by setab MB, I don't believe you are correct. *The CSRS system is separate, as is the FERS system. *That being said, I find almost any scenario possible these days, but what are you suggesting as an alternative? *If the Federal pension system goes down, what makes you think any private investing you do is safe? *We can all run around shouting the sky is falling, or we can all take a deep breath, and realize that many stories such as the one that started this thread are highly sensationalized pieces of drivel that sell newspapers in spite of their lack of factual bases. setab

Well some of us know better.

remember all that drivel we heard about "Social Security is there for you"... Blah Blah Blah

Well I paid but I'm sure not counting on them to live up to their end of the bargain.

Some of us know better.

[unclemick]

Hmmmm - I also paid 1966-1992.

And starting last year - I'm getting the money.

heh heh heh heh - P.S. I'll try not to spend it all. "Social Security is there for me."

[setab]

federal employees never got profit sharing, Christmas bonuses, etc., etc. *Merit bonuses were a joke and usually not handed out due to a "lack of funds." *Cost of living raises were constantly cut below levels required by law by both Democratic and Republican administrations. *Federal employees work a 2087 hour work year which means hourly pay doesn't come out the same as the schedule suggests. *(Any other business you know figure its pay on 2087 hours?) *Hiring professionals is always difficult and retaining them is very nearly impossible. * A junior Captain took a job with a local industry legal office for more money than the highest paid person in the government legal office he left. *I could go on and on. *People don't stay in government work because of the tremendous salaries or even the "generous" benefits. *Sure, some stay because they are slugs and they can hide, but the majority stay because they actually get hooked by the notion of public service and they take pride in the work they do in spite of a system and a public that constantly denigrates their efforts. *And they cling to the belief that their "deferred compensation" somehow makes up for that. *They know better, but they believe it anyway. *I guess it is naive these days to believe that the government of all entities will keep its promises and honor its contractual and moral commitments. *I guess I'm naive, because the alternatives are just unacceptable.

setab

[Scrooge]

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Originally Posted by unclemick2 heh heh heh heh - P.S. I'll try not to spend it all.

Thanks for leaving something for the rest of us!*

[Martha]

You all are so pessimistic. My bet is that SS will remain around, with tweaking. My bet is that your public pensions will be OK. My bet is that taxes will increase.

[Scrooge]

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Originally Posted by Martha My bet is that SS will remain around, with tweaking.

Well, as the last Trustee report states:

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The annual cost of Social Security benefits represents 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 and is projected to rise to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2030, and then slightly to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2080. ... Projected OASDI tax income will begin to fall short of outlays in 2017, and will be sufficient to finance only 74 percent of scheduled annual benefits in 2040, when the combined OASDI trust fund is projected to be exhausted. ... Social Security could be brought into actuarial balance over the next 75 years in various ways, including an immediate increase of 16 percent in payroll tax revenues or an immediate reduction in benefits of 13 percent (or some combination of the two). To the extent that changes are delayed or phased in gradually, greater adjustments in scheduled benefits and revenues would be required.

So the current system is likely sustainable (assuming the report is in the ballpark) during our lifetimes even though some benefit cuts or tax increases may need to be introduced in order to balance it. That's why I figure that counting on 60-70% of my currently projected SS income is probably realistic if the current system stays in place. Still, I'd prefer not to depend on it since there is no guarantee that the current system, sustainable or not, will be retained. That's one of the reasons why plan A is to continue working for at least 3 more years.

On the other hand, the current Medicare system is not sustainable without major changes:

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Medicare's annual costs were 2.7 percent of GDP in 2005, ... now projected to ... reach 11 percent of GDP in 2080.

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HI could be brought into actuarial balance over the next 75 years by an immediate 121 percent increase in program income, or an immediate 51 percent reduction in program outlays (or some combination of the two). As with Social Security, however, adjustments of far greater magnitude would be necessary to the extent changes are delayed or phased in gradually, or to make the program solvent on a sustainable basis over the next 75 years and beyond.

That's pretty drastic, although Medicare taxes are fairly low right now and a 121% increase may be possible without upsetting the applecart. It should also be noted that future Medicare costs have been historically hard to predict accurately, so we may be revisiting this discussion in another couple of years.

I see health care expenses after 65 as the wildcard of ER while still in your 40s or younger: a potentially huge but vaguely defined extra expense that you have no control over.

[al_bundy]

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Originally Posted by katfish Skilled public employees, as least at the county level here in South Jersey are paid, apparently, less then the private sector. I base this on the fact are authority was unable to find an electrican at the salary we offered. WE are unable to attract qualified experienced engineers. We are unable to find, at the salary we will pay, qualified tech. personal. We require skill levels but we don't pay. WHAT we offer is membership in DP state plan and good medical. THATS all we offer. Its apparent NJ wants to cut its DP pension plan. Since all local and county workers are members I wonder how we are going to find the qualified people to operate water and wastewater plants. Health departments, highway tech. people and it goes on and on. You don't realize how many people work for the public and make life a little better here ... If the public wants a new deal they can have it .

what about all the stories I hear about NJ Transit conductors making $100,000 a year?

[al_bundy]

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Originally Posted by setab I paid 7-9 percent of my income into my retirement system for 27 years. (IN addition to the 10 percent to TSP) If there isn't money there, someone took it. setab

at 10% return is the money you are promised more than the value of the 7% - 9% you put in? here in the northeast a lot of public employees make A LOT of money and have better pensions than private sector employees and people are getting tired of paying insane property taxes to support it.

[macdaddy]

http://www.boston.com/news/local/mas..._200000_in_04/