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Old 04-21-2021, 03:35 PM   #21
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Zillow's median valuation on our home is $150,000+ more than the Redfin valuation which I think is a reasonable valuation. I don't think Zillow's is realistic, even though I see daily, the sales data on properties in our area, selling in record time and at record prices over ask.

Oh and I'm a former real estate appraiser.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:47 PM   #22
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Zillow's median valuation on our home is $150,000+ more than the Redfin valuation which I think is a reasonable valuation. I don't think Zillow's is realistic, even though I see daily, the sales data on properties in our area, selling in record time and at record prices over ask.
My DW deals with R/E in several states and one of her former co-workers works at Zillow and we had a pretty long conversation when we were in ATL a few weeks ago. Zillow *can* be very accurate, but it is HIGHLY dependent on where you are...and that means at the STREET level, not just the town or even neighborhood.

My DW just did a comprehensive CMA on our house as she would as a R/E broker and she came in about 10% off of what Zillow has, 18% off what Trulia has and about 5% on what Realtor.com has....so it's all over the map. Oh, and she did it the "old fashioned way" by not referencing values from any of the above three sites.
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Zillow is not the market
Old 04-21-2021, 03:48 PM   #23
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Zillow is not the market

You have limited supply in desirable locations, due to Covid. That's it.

Trees do not grow to the sky. When supply and demand come back into equilibrium you will see more reasonable prices.
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Old 04-21-2021, 03:52 PM   #24
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The last bubble really was a bubble. Loans made w/o income verification to people who didn't have money. Now we have the covid times with work from home and people that were renting with huge stock market gains that pay in cash.

Me thinks it will go down but not go "pop" like the last bubble.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:10 PM   #25
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Zillow's median valuation on our home is $150,000+ more than the Redfin valuation which I think is a reasonable valuation. I don't think Zillow's is realistic, even though I see daily, the sales data on properties in our area, selling in record time and at record prices over ask.
Yeah Zillow always seems to be the highest quote, when one uses the quoting services for our house.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:11 PM   #26
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I was at a presentation by a Realtor discussing our local market. Like many, it is really hopping. Home values going up $15k every two weeks, limited inventory, offers with no contingencies going $50k over asking on first bid. The realtor discussed her thoughts on why-Covid making our rural market more desirable, etc.

I asked-if people are moving here they must be leaving somewhere. Supply and Demand what it is, that means the market is down somewhere. Where?

She claimed the market was up everywhere, but insisted she expected no imminent crash and we weren't in a bubble. How's that work?
Hmmm...interesting. I think asking a realtor whether we are in a bubble is like asking a barber if you need a haircut There is a little bias there

I believe this is a bubble. Our daughter and SIL just went through the process. They lost out on a house they "only" offered $5,000 over asking price. The house they eventually bought was $12,000 over asking, one day on the market. They sold their house $15,000 over asking, one day on the market, after considering an offer $30,000 over offer, but were concerned about the flaky buyer and realtor.

Their realtor was quite honest about the likelihood of a bubble in the near future. She said that their analyst at Century 21 said that it could occur in weeks or months. If they were comfortable losing $100,000 of equity and riding that out for several years, then make a strong offer.

The other thing that makes this feel like a bubble to me is that many people I have talked to have said crazy things lately. They want to buy now, before prices go up more, or before interest rates go up. So the bubble continues to grow, driven by an insane demand, reduced supply, and a growing optimism about the future.

We were considering upgrading from our condo to a SFH, but not at these prices. It's really getting crazy
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:17 PM   #27
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What do the "experts" think:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is...of2&yptr=yahoo
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:24 PM   #28
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This.

My 22 yr. old HVAC is having issues, with a small slow coil leak finally occurring. I could limp it for an unknown time (week, month, year?) by refilling the refrigerant (R-410). (I saw one guy on bogelheads claim he has a barrel of R-22 so he just refills every now and then and keeps his unit running 'forever.' Never mind the ozone layer.)

But due to changing efficiency laws, I can't even get a coil that will fit in the space of my unit. So, it is time to look at both a new furnace and compressor.

I don't like the price quotes, but you know what? I don't see them going down. So instead of playing chicken with inflation, I just bit the bullet and sprung for a new unit which will go in this week. Time to Blow That Dough.
I'm in the same point as you, however my compressor locked up on my 26 year old heat pump. It's time for a new unit.

You can see the prices online==$2250-2500 for 3 ton heat pumps.

I was quoted $5300, $7200 and $8900. I'm sorry, but I'm not going to pay anyone for a $3000, $4500 or $6000 profit for one day's labor.

I finally got a $4100 bid and jumped on it. The guy is a small HVAC firm without all the overhead of the contractors with 30-50 employees.
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Real Estate Bubble?
Old 04-21-2021, 04:24 PM   #29
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Real Estate Bubble?

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Originally Posted by 48Fire View Post
Hmmm...interesting. I think asking a realtor whether we are in a bubble is like asking a barber if you need a haircut There is a little bias there

Yes. The realtor phrase I’ve heard around here is that the market is “hot”. Sounds more upbeat but less near-term gloomy than “bubble”.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:26 PM   #30
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Interesting article, thanks for posting. This is the best analysis I have seen, and it lines up mostly with my thinking and my eyes. The one line that caught my attention was, "It's different this time." Crashes are always different, but irrational exuberance seems to be a common denominator

BTW, love the wine in your area We're considering flying out there soon.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:28 PM   #31
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Yes. The realtor phrase I’ve heard around here is that the market is “hot”. Sounds more upbeat but less near-term gloomy than “bubble”.
Haha, yeah, and in the article just posted, they said they expect some "cooling of the market." It might feel like liquid Nitrogen if your timing is bad
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Real Estate Bubble?
Old 04-21-2021, 04:29 PM   #32
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Real Estate Bubble?

There’s a tidal wave of Millennials between 25-40 who are into their professions and are expanding their families. That plus record low interest rates creeping back up is driving the frenzy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/mill...n-prepare.html
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:58 PM   #33
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When I was in college many decades ago, my father had a 6.6% 30 mortgage on our house.

I predict that a return to 6.6% 30 year mortgages will result in lower real estate prices. Amazing!

The market is being driving by interest rates I would never have dreamed possible when I was in my 20's, 30's, 40's and 50's. My 2˘.
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Old 04-21-2021, 05:11 PM   #34
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Zillow has been reasonably close in my neighborhood and yes, it shows my house up 16% this year. But we're still 6% or so under what we paid in 2005 when MegaCorp moved me from a LCOL to HCOL area. So bubble away.
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Old 04-21-2021, 05:20 PM   #35
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When I was in college many decades ago, my father had a 6.6% 30 mortgage on our house.

The market is being driving by interest rates I would never have dreamed possible when I was in my 20's, 30's, 40's and 50's. My 2˘.
When I bought my first house I paid interest rate of 9.25%, in the last half of the 1970's.

When I sold my second house some years down the line in the late 1980's, I sold it on contract at 10.25%.

The Millenials now days don't know what it is to pay any real interest.
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Old 04-21-2021, 05:24 PM   #36
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What many call Bubble is just another incarnation of Inflation. Which many refuse to admit is rampant right now.
+1. I just had my roof replaced this month. Quoted hourly rates for roofers ranged from $40-$80! We'll be seeing carpenter work billed at $100/hr soon in these parts; labor costs are up. Millennials are moving from downtown into the suburbs, so demand is up. Lumber and plywood prices have screamed upwards the last 9 months, so material costs are up.

I think high housing prices are here to stay for long while, just like medical care costs and higher education.
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Old 04-21-2021, 05:31 PM   #37
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I think bubbles are fun.There's little inventory here, realtors have been advertising for anyone who wants quick cash to call. I look at inventory and it's overpriced junk at 600k. Our county is trying to limit short term rentals and some folks are pretty upset.
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Old 04-21-2021, 06:11 PM   #38
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Yes. The realtor phrase I’ve heard around here is that the market is “hot”. Sounds more upbeat but less near-term gloomy than “bubble”.

We met with our realtor last week about possible future plans. We said that she must be loving the "hot" market. She said she hates it. She has 14 buyers from out of state looking for properties, ready to pay 100% cash (including one wanting a $1M horse farm) and she can't find any sellers.

We have decided to try an pull in the sale of our primary home from '23 to '22 as not to miss this "hot" market.
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Old 04-21-2021, 06:19 PM   #39
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When I bought my first house I paid interest rate of 9.25%, in the last half of the 1970's.

When I sold my second house some years down the line in the late 1980's, I sold it on contract at 10.25%.

The Millenials now days don't know what it is to pay any real interest.
Yep, just had this conversation with daughter and SIL. We had 12% adjustable rate for our first house in 1984
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Old 04-21-2021, 06:20 PM   #40
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When I bought my first house I paid interest rate of 9.25%, in the last half of the 1970's.

When I sold my second house some years down the line in the late 1980's, I sold it on contract at 10.25%.

The Millenials now days don't know what it is to pay any real interest.
My first co op bought in 1983 came with a 12.25% fixed 30 yr.
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