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Old 07-12-2021, 11:38 PM   #421
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Interesting interview today with a well regarded police chief in a neighboring city. The chief is taking a new job as a chief of police in a city located in the so-called fly over country.

The main reason: None of his three kids (even the married one with two incomes in the household) can afford to buy a house here.
Move on, nothing to see here......

Meanwhile, a house nearby that sold for $1.25 million in 2005 is on the market after substantial upgrades. The buyer that paid that tried to sell it during 2015-2016 at ever decreasing prices before finally selling at $739,000 in 2016. The buyer that paid $739,000 just sold it for about what the seller paid in 2005.

In my subdivision, a house that sold in early 2017 for $201/sq. ft. is now on the market for $486/sq. ft., and they'll probably get that, or close to it.

If there was anywhere else I wanted to go, I'd bail now.

I'm not in the Bay area or Seattle with tech company millionaires being minted from stock options/grants everyday. Most of the purchases appear to be from out-of-state buyers fleeing high crime areas. Have to wonder how long that is going to last, and what the aftermath will be when that play runs out.
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Old 07-13-2021, 05:12 AM   #422
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We have definitely seen a slowdown this past month where we live. 2 homes within my development that are priced reasonably and one has been sitting there for 35 days and the other 16 days.
There are houses for sale on the blocks at each side of ours. Even though prices seem reasonable, both have been for sale for a couple of weeks without contracts.

It's likely because it's too hot to look at houses during midsummer in Virginia, but still interesting to note.
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Real Estate Bubble?
Old 07-13-2021, 09:52 AM   #423
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Real Estate Bubble?

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I've looked at Raleigh Metro since 2006 when I visited Cary and true to form, I felt I missed all the upside and didn't make a move. Of course, true to form - I was wrong and there was tons more to be had.

[…]

Any guesses on what lesser developed parts surrounding the RTP will one day come more alive? I'd appreciate any local observation you have.

You might get a better guess from other members who are longer term Tar Heels than I. I’m a transplant from the midwest who moved in mid-2015 (I’m an Illini).

I waited a while to buy a home and made the leap just this spring. Bought a home I’d been renting when the former owners (physicians now in another state) decided they’d had enough of landlording. It was lucky: we went under contract just as Apple made their expansion announcement (in April). Prices have zoomed due to a combo of Covid, mortgage rates & Apple/RTP (not sure which had greatest effect).

I live a little west of RTP but an easy commute (which I no longer do!). The area is expanding for sure, Pittsboro comes to mind and is closest.
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Old 07-16-2021, 02:09 PM   #424
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My son finally got an offer to buy a house accepted, after not getting 2 other houses. He wasn't too aggressive in his other offers, but this house was a really good fit for him and the asking price was pretty reasonable, so he went 10% over. Apparently they had 12 offers, and took his. Hopefully no surprises on the inspection. I'm really happy for him. He's more than ready to get out of apartment life.
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Old 07-16-2021, 02:20 PM   #425
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My son finally got an offer to buy a house accepted, after not getting 2 other houses. He wasn't too aggressive in his other offers, but this house was a really good fit for him and the asking price was pretty reasonable, so he went 10% over. Apparently they had 12 offers, and took his. Hopefully no surprises on the inspection. I'm really happy for him. He's more than ready to get out of apartment life.

Fingers crossed for your boy, glad he waited until he found something he really wanted.
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Old 07-16-2021, 02:32 PM   #426
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Nice, but not spectacular 3 - 6 bedroom homes in our community are just starting to hit the multi-million mark here now (Bay Area). These are houses that would just be well kept, middle class suburban homes elsewhere. I do think it seems like a bubble that is going to burst big time. Prices have always been boom and bust here but even for the Bay Area I've never seen these kind of extreme price increases in one year.

Like Flagator, if I had some place else I wanted to move to I'd sell now.
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Old 07-16-2021, 04:41 PM   #427
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Fingers crossed for your boy, glad he waited until he found something he really wanted.
Thanks. This was the least expensive of the three, but this had everything he wanted. Just not some extras he really didn't need.
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Old 07-22-2021, 05:50 PM   #428
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Here's a home in one of Raleigh, NC best zip codes. Went on the market for $389K but they knocked it down to $375K It's under contract now. Still overpriced but the price cut does tell you something. I have seen similar homes with price cuts still sitting around. Maybe this isn't a housing bubble but an old birthday ballon that deflates slowly over time..


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...79888018_zpid/
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Old 07-22-2021, 06:04 PM   #429
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Finally starting a reversing of the curve for inventory, not too surprising as it was hovering pretty near zero, probably due to materials opening up and more workers being available. The other factors are indexed prices are starting to get a bit above the 2008 peak, and buyers are decreasing a bit, though it is still quite high. If these trends continue, the housing market should be able to cool itself down, resulting in a slow drop in prices, otherwise, such as if it gets propped up by investment buyers despite a drop in demand and an increase in supply, we could see a repeat of 2008.
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:21 PM   #430
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Anecdotal - a realtor in the midwest told me she is itching to sell her house because, "I don't know what the market will do next year." It tells me she sees a softening, or at least a slowdown. I see better supply-demand balance next year.
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Old 07-22-2021, 07:54 PM   #431
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Here's a home in one of Raleigh, NC best zip codes. Went on the market for $389K but they knocked it down to $375K It's under contract now. Still overpriced but the price cut does tell you something. I have seen similar homes with price cuts still sitting around. Maybe this isn't a housing bubble but an old birthday ballon that deflates slowly over time..


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...79888018_zpid/
Not sure how soft I'd consider that given the house across the street at 7716 is a touch bigger and just sold in June for $345k. I live not too far from that listing. I've seen a few price cuts for the houses that were really overpriced. I guess we shall see if the days on market starts to climb. Everything in our neighborhood that went up last week has an offer so as of yesterday morning there was zero inventory in our neighborhood again which usually implies there is still room for the price to go up maybe not at the crazy rates these last 6 months brought us but probably not exactly pennies either.
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Old 07-23-2021, 06:57 AM   #432
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My hope is that homes I want to buy as an investment soften up and come down in price. But, MY neighborhood and my primary residence should of course maintain it's current value and appreciate yearly
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:02 AM   #433
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My neighborhood of ~750 homes has only one currently listed, and it's a very small house, maybe 1600 SF, for $530 and needs a 100% upgrade/gutting.

To compare, most 1900sf average homes for the area are going at $650+, and quickly. Realtors aren't even bothering with open houses. When I start to see open house signs around, that's when it's softening. At most it's going to level off, but nothing major will change until the inventory starts to increase.
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:16 AM   #434
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My neighborhood of ~750 homes has only one currently listed, and it's a very small house, maybe 1600 SF, for $530 and needs a 100% upgrade/gutting.

To compare, most 1900sf average homes for the area are going at $650+, and quickly. Realtors aren't even bothering with open houses. When I start to see open house signs around, that's when it's softening. At most it's going to level off, but nothing major will change until the inventory starts to increase.

Or the buyers start to decrease. Seems at some point all the people moving up in a house will level off. Once the balance of buyers and sellers is more even it will reduce the price increase pressure that has been in place with current more buyers than sellers.


Low mortgage rates have had a big effect as well, if interest rates rise that will cool things down by itself. Hopefully it is a slow increase, for the overall economy sake, as well as for the housing market.
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Old 07-23-2021, 06:15 PM   #435
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In our area Price per sq ft is going at about 165 on the low end to 225 high end on the golf course or lake. We are in between probably around 190. I bought for $122 6 years ago so we have appreciated about $11-12sq/ft per year. or a 9.1% annual appreciation, YMMV.

Zillow has us listed at $161.5/sq ft and Trulia is the exact same.

The county has us assessed at $138 down from $140 last year.
They used to break out land value, but I can't seem to find that information...a 2 acre lot just across the way on the golf course just sold for $250k. My guess is they build 2 800-1MM homes their. FOUR!

Affordability is the key in my area. I would/am upgrading my job, but avoiding the life creep, paying this sucker off early and setting sail into the sunset with y'all!
Update 3 months later Zillow now has us around $173.5 so about 4.016% a month appreciation. I don't know if that's a coincidence, but in 10months I don't know how we can see a 40% price increase sustain. Technically, I added a massive 1200sq ft outdoor space zillow doesn't know about and still has me as second highest per sq ft on the block.
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:36 PM   #436
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According to the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021, "demand is softening but still remains strong."

See Bill McBride's Calculated Risk Blog post for some graphics detailing the weakening and additional thoughts:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...rvey-june.html

Here in the Raleigh area in the last week we've seen some overly exuberant (greedy?) sellers listing their homes WELL above recent sales metrics and greeted with crickets and no showings. So, it appears there is a limit to the insanity, but demand for properly priced homes here does remain VERY strong.
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:56 PM   #437
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Here in the Raleigh area in the last week we've seen some overly exuberant (greedy?) sellers listing their homes WELL above recent sales metrics and greeted with crickets and no showings. So, it appears there is a limit to the insanity, but demand for properly priced homes here does remain VERY strong.

They might be people in no rush to really move, but might for the right price. And who knows what buyers are willing to pay right now in the tulip mania kind of market.


I've seen that in our area and sometimes it works. I think these must be cash buyers because some of the home are selling well above comps, at least comps from a few months before.
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Old 07-23-2021, 07:57 PM   #438
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According to the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021, "demand is softening but still remains strong."

See Bill McBride's Calculated Risk Blog post for some graphics detailing the weakening and additional thoughts:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...rvey-june.html

Here in the Raleigh area in the last week we've seen some overly exuberant (greedy?) sellers listing their homes WELL above recent sales metrics and greeted with crickets and no showings. So, it appears there is a limit to the insanity, but demand for properly priced homes here does remain VERY strong.

Good observation. So we are seeing a decline in the bidding war process although homes are still selling fast. Not sure about other parts of the country but the RTP area has been on "fire" for a while so there are some signs of people saying "NO THANKS" to gross overpricing.
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Old 07-24-2021, 09:01 AM   #439
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It appears that the market is slowing down here in the SF Bay Area (East Bay). There is a house for sale in my neighborhood that was on the market for almost 2 weeks before going pending. Also, a house in my daughters neighborhood in Danville was on the market for over two weeks and just reduce their asking price by $100K.
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Old 07-24-2021, 09:45 AM   #440
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From Redfin Redmond Data...

"In June 2021, Redmond home prices were up 48.0% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $1.3M. On average, homes in Redmond sell after 5 days on the market compared to 7 days last year. There were 170 homes sold in June this year, up from 111 last year."

Up 48% seems nuts! I'm pretty sure maybe a few mega sales skewed this data. My Redfin estimated house value has gone up 20% yoy.
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