Real Estate Bubble?

[chassis]

California, PNW and Manhattan markets get headlines. Sometimes also Florida.

The vast majority of the country sees boring price growth for principal dwellings. It’s so boring that headlines usually aren’t written about it.

We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chassis California, PNW and Manhattan markets get headlines. Sometimes also Florida. The vast majority of the country sees boring price growth for principal dwellings. It’s so boring that headlines usually aren’t written about it. We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.

Due to the bubble
Our house is after nearly 20 yrs worth 25% more than we paid for it.
No housing inflation here...

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chassis We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.

When I see a property that has appreciated in value an average of 3%/yr over a 20 year period suddenly increase 40+% over the past three years, I'm more than a little skeptical.

[ExFlyBoy5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chassis We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.

Bubble? Well, depends on your definition I suppose. Ridiculous amount of housing inflation over the last 18 months? My DW who is "in the biz" over several states across the country is calling it "stark raving mad"

[Walt34]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo I keep seeing articles saying we aren't in a bubble and giving all the perfectly logical reasons for the huge run-up in prices. Whenever I read them I end up hearing "this time it's different". And we all know how historically accurate that statement has been.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5 My DW who is "in the biz" over several states across the country is calling it "stark raving mad"

Yabut... This time it's really, really different!

I'm starting to see some articles about large employers telling employees that they need to get their respective butts back in the offices. And lots of employees responding by saying "Take your job and shove it..."

It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out. I can say that because I'm not interested in working, buying real estate, or selling any.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Walt34 It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out. I can say that because I'm not interested in working, buying real estate, or selling any.

Exactly!!! I am sitting on the sidelines with popcorn, watching all this great real estate entertainment.

Right now our plan is to never move or look for a job, ever again.

[braumeister]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R Right now our plan is to never move or look for a job, ever again.

One of my neighbors (in his 80s) says "The only way I'm leaving this house will be with a toe tag attached."

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by braumeister One of my neighbors (in his 80s) says "The only way I'm leaving this house will be with a toe tag attached."

Well said!!! That's what we are thinking, any way.

[finnski1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by braumeister One of my neighbors (in his 80s) says "The only way I'm leaving this house will be with a toe tag attached."

yeah I always tell my wife that the only way I'm leaving this house is "feet first on a stretcher"
Of course I now have to monitor her online shopping for any medical supply stores.

[Another Reader]

Got my homeowner's insurance bill in the mail this morning. Up over 90 percent. About a month ago, I got a letter from State Farm about how all these services to protect us from wildfires were being added to our policies.

About an hour after I opened the letter, I got an automatic notification of a 30 plus acre wildfire a couple of miles away. CalFIRE was on top of it and there wasn't a lot of wind, so no big deal.

I recently raised my insured value to $500 per square foot of enclosed living space. Not sure I could rebuild for the insured value, even with the automatic 10 percent building cost protection on top. A lot similar to mine would go for at least $500k. Contractors can't meet demand already. So there are multiple factors driving prices in the Bay Area, not just low interest rates or people working from home.

My thinking is a lot of what has driven prices skyward here for decades is moving into the more desirable markets across the country. Not enough existing supply, constraints on new supply, and more people in the market, i.e. demographics. Interest rates are juicing prices, but the underlying demand is very strong.

[rodi]

As mentioned earlier in this thread - we've been watching the local market with the idea that if the right place came along, we'd downsize sooner than an our ideal timing. (Have re-thought this and won't make any moves for at least two years.)

One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!!
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Another Reader I recently raised my insured value to $500 per square foot of enclosed living space. Not sure I could rebuild for the insured value, even with the automatic 10 percent building cost protection on top. A lot similar to mine would go for at least $500k. Contractors can't meet demand already. So there are multiple factors driving prices in the Bay Area, not just low interest rates or people working from home.

This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodi https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745

Wow. The ocean is really expensive.

[rodi]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.)

That's my understanding as well - not only do you already own the land - chances are there are utilities to the site already - which is another 'fresh lot' cost of building. But... If *construction* costs are $500/sf in your area - then it makes sense.

Friends found a lot that had a burnt down home on it, in an established sought after neighborhood. They still spent plenty building their dream home - but having the utilities in place definitely saved them about $100k by their estimations.

[Another Reader]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.) Wow. The ocean is really expensive.

The house is worth about $1.8 million today. 32 years old, no remodelling. Rebuilt to current standards and tastes, it would be over $2 million. But I likely can't build it for the maximum insured value of the structures.

[RetireeRobert]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodi One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!! https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745

Thanks for the link! Using "street view" at the link, I took a nice walk toward the ocean.

That house also checks off a lot of my boxes too (except for laundry in garage, and the gas range). But, it's sold already.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodi One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!! https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745

I like the ocean, but that house is not that close to the water for $1.6M.

For another $300K, I'd rather have this $1.9M deal on Bainbridge Island, with 3922 sq.ft. and more than 1 acre of land, and with a nice view to boot. And I am prejudiced towards the PNW (see my screen name).

Of course, the house may be bid up higher.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...23396255_zpid/

[brucethebroker]

You might base your thinking of selling on your gut feeling about the future. If you think that the market is too hot, and maybe about to peak, could be the right time to sell. "No one ever went broke taking a small profit"....don't know the author, but good advice.

On the other hand, if you think "this time it is different", well..................

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Another Reader The house is worth about $1.8 million today. 32 years old, no remodelling. Rebuilt to current standards and tastes, it would be over $2 million. But I likely can't build it for the maximum insured value of the structures.

OK.

But would you rebuild on the same lot or a different one? And if a different one, would you sell your current lot?

[brucethebroker]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo When I see a property that has appreciated in value an average of 3%/yr over a 20 year period suddenly increase 40+% over the past three years, I'm more than a little skeptical.

+1.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by rodi As mentioned earlier in this thread - we've been watching the local market with the idea that if the right place came along, we'd downsize sooner than an our ideal timing. (Have re-thought this and won't make any moves for at least two years.) One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!! https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745

Oh I *LIKE* it!!! Wow. Except for the price, which I couldn't ever handle. And also I want to continue living where I am, next door to Frank. But what a nice house! Glad to know that such places really DO exist. Sorry that it went pending before you had a chance to see it.