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06-14-2021, 09:57 AM
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#361
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
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California, PNW and Manhattan markets get headlines. Sometimes also Florida.
The vast majority of the country sees boring price growth for principal dwellings. It’s so boring that headlines usually aren’t written about it.
We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.
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06-14-2021, 10:06 AM
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#362
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,093
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
California, PNW and Manhattan markets get headlines. Sometimes also Florida.
The vast majority of the country sees boring price growth for principal dwellings. It’s so boring that headlines usually aren’t written about it.
We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.
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Due to the bubble
Our house is after nearly 20 yrs worth 25% more than we paid for it.
No housing inflation here...
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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06-14-2021, 10:13 AM
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#363
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.
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When I see a property that has appreciated in value an average of 3%/yr over a 20 year period suddenly increase 40+% over the past three years, I'm more than a little skeptical.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-14-2021, 01:43 PM
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#364
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
We’re not in a primary dwelling bubble now. Lots of reasons why.
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Bubble? Well, depends on your definition I suppose. Ridiculous amount of housing inflation over the last 18 months? My DW who is "in the biz" over several states across the country is calling it "stark raving mad"
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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06-14-2021, 03:02 PM
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#365
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,340
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
I keep seeing articles saying we aren't in a bubble and giving all the perfectly logical reasons for the huge run-up in prices. Whenever I read them I end up hearing "this time it's different". And we all know how historically accurate that statement has been.
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Yabut... This time it's really, really different!
I'm starting to see some articles about large employers telling employees that they need to get their respective butts back in the offices. And lots of employees responding by saying "Take your job and shove it..."
It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out. I can say that because I'm not interested in working, buying real estate, or selling any.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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06-14-2021, 03:19 PM
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#366
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34
It'll be interesting to see how this all pans out. I can say that because I'm not interested in working, buying real estate, or selling any.
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Exactly!!! I am sitting on the sidelines with popcorn, watching all this great real estate entertainment.
Right now our plan is to never move or look for a job, ever again.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-14-2021, 03:27 PM
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#367
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 25,349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
Right now our plan is to never move or look for a job, ever again.
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One of my neighbors (in his 80s) says "The only way I'm leaving this house will be with a toe tag attached."
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
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06-14-2021, 03:30 PM
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#368
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Well said!!! That's what we are thinking, any way.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-14-2021, 04:01 PM
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#369
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,829
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yeah I always tell my wife that the only way I'm leaving this house is "feet first on a stretcher"
Of course I now have to monitor her online shopping for any medical supply stores.
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06-14-2021, 04:40 PM
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#370
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,413
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Got my homeowner's insurance bill in the mail this morning. Up over 90 percent. About a month ago, I got a letter from State Farm about how all these services to protect us from wildfires were being added to our policies.
About an hour after I opened the letter, I got an automatic notification of a 30 plus acre wildfire a couple of miles away. CalFIRE was on top of it and there wasn't a lot of wind, so no big deal.
I recently raised my insured value to $500 per square foot of enclosed living space. Not sure I could rebuild for the insured value, even with the automatic 10 percent building cost protection on top. A lot similar to mine would go for at least $500k. Contractors can't meet demand already. So there are multiple factors driving prices in the Bay Area, not just low interest rates or people working from home.
My thinking is a lot of what has driven prices skyward here for decades is moving into the more desirable markets across the country. Not enough existing supply, constraints on new supply, and more people in the market, i.e. demographics. Interest rates are juicing prices, but the underlying demand is very strong.
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06-14-2021, 04:59 PM
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#371
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,212
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As mentioned earlier in this thread - we've been watching the local market with the idea that if the right place came along, we'd downsize sooner than an our ideal timing. (Have re-thought this and won't make any moves for at least two years.)
One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!!
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745
__________________
Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
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06-14-2021, 05:09 PM
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#372
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Another Reader
I recently raised my insured value to $500 per square foot of enclosed living space. Not sure I could rebuild for the insured value, even with the automatic 10 percent building cost protection on top. A lot similar to mine would go for at least $500k. Contractors can't meet demand already. So there are multiple factors driving prices in the Bay Area, not just low interest rates or people working from home.
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This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodi
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Wow. The ocean is really expensive.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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06-14-2021, 05:24 PM
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#373
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521
This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.)
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That's my understanding as well - not only do you already own the land - chances are there are utilities to the site already - which is another 'fresh lot' cost of building. But... If *construction* costs are $500/sf in your area - then it makes sense.
Friends found a lot that had a burnt down home on it, in an established sought after neighborhood. They still spent plenty building their dream home - but having the utilities in place definitely saved them about $100k by their estimations.
__________________
Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
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06-14-2021, 05:27 PM
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#374
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521
This puzzles me. Would you not rebuild on the same lot if your house burned down? The usual thinking around here is that you only need to insure the structure "because dirt doesn't burn" (which is probably not true, but the idea being that even if the house is completely gone there's still a buildable lot there that you own.)
Wow. The ocean is really expensive.
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The house is worth about $1.8 million today. 32 years old, no remodelling. Rebuilt to current standards and tastes, it would be over $2 million. But I likely can't build it for the maximum insured value of the structures.
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06-14-2021, 05:59 PM
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#375
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
Posts: 1,979
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodi
One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!!
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745
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Thanks for the link! Using "street view" at the link, I took a nice walk toward the ocean.
That house also checks off a lot of my boxes too (except for laundry in garage, and the gas range). But, it's sold already.
__________________
Dreams Worth Dreaming are Dreams Worth Planning For. I Spent a Career Planning for Early Retirement.
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06-14-2021, 06:04 PM
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#376
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodi
One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!!
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745
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I like the ocean, but that house is not that close to the water for $1.6M.
For another $300K, I'd rather have this $1.9M deal on Bainbridge Island, with 3922 sq.ft. and more than 1 acre of land, and with a nice view to boot. And I am prejudiced towards the PNW (see my screen name).
Of course, the house may be bid up higher.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...23396255_zpid/
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-14-2021, 06:36 PM
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#377
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,795
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You might base your thinking of selling on your gut feeling about the future. If you think that the market is too hot, and maybe about to peak, could be the right time to sell. "No one ever went broke taking a small profit"....don't know the author, but good advice.
On the other hand, if you think "this time it is different", well..................
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06-14-2021, 06:38 PM
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#378
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,882
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Another Reader
The house is worth about $1.8 million today. 32 years old, no remodelling. Rebuilt to current standards and tastes, it would be over $2 million. But I likely can't build it for the maximum insured value of the structures.
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OK.
But would you rebuild on the same lot or a different one? And if a different one, would you sell your current lot?
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
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06-14-2021, 06:39 PM
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#379
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,795
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
When I see a property that has appreciated in value an average of 3%/yr over a 20 year period suddenly increase 40+% over the past three years, I'm more than a little skeptical.
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+1.
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06-14-2021, 07:42 PM
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#380
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodi
As mentioned earlier in this thread - we've been watching the local market with the idea that if the right place came along, we'd downsize sooner than an our ideal timing. (Have re-thought this and won't make any moves for at least two years.)
One of the homes that caught our attention was listed at a (very much) stretch price for our budget - but checked off 100% of DH's boxes and 75% of mine. It also had a sentimental side to it - same street (but closer to the beach) that my grandparents lived when I was growing up. We decided we'd go look at it - but it went pending before we could get to see it. Judging by the shortness of pending to sold - it must have been a cash offer... For $205K over the asking price!!!!!
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...9/home/5133745
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Oh I *LIKE* it!!! Wow. Except for the price, which I couldn't ever handle. And also I want to continue living where I am, next door to Frank. But what a nice house! Glad to know that such places really DO exist. Sorry that it went pending before you had a chance to see it.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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