Real Estate Bubble?

[ExFlyBoy5]

I'm not so sure about that.... you'll have water, electric and wastewater all in place... and in most cases a sound foundation with some clean up.

We demoilshed and rebuilt in 2011/2012 and our demolition costs were only $7k and permit was $25 but we are out in the boondocks.

This is one of those YMMV (as are MOST things in life, right?) I saw many accounts of folks in California that were smacked in the face with the amount of money that was required to "start over" when they lost their homes to wildfires. Some folks luck out in that it could be cheap or get screwed when it's much more than they anticipated.

In our case, we have a well, septic and plumbing under the slab. None of that would be easy to just "hook back up."

 

[Chuckanut]

Here's an interesting statistic:

https://mynorthwest.com/2995546/bidding-wars-send-seattle-home-prices-skyrocketing/

Emphasis added.

In total, 4,078 homes in Seattle sold for between $100,000 and $300,000 over asking this year. In that same period in 2020, that number was at 362. The average home in the Seattle area has sold for almost $48,000 over asking price in 2021, up from $3,025 last year.

 

[FlaGator]

But there is not a “bubble”/FOMO/unusually accelerated increase in price, is there?

Eagerly awaiting the usual suspects to show up and explain how this is “the new normal”.

I hope their domestic unit is in agreement as they invest in this real estate market right now. Going to be ugly on the home front if not and it goes sideways.

 

[Katsmeow]

We bought our house in 2016. The housing news says that the housing prices in my area have increased by 30% in one year. Looking at the recent sales prices of the homes that are similar to mine, the housing prices have almost doubled since 2016, which means we couldn't afford our house if we were to a house today.

We bought our house 3 years ago. We could not afford to buy it today. I am glad we bought it when we did. Even then we had to pay over asking price. And, right now, I am sure glad we did it.

We did do a major remodel which we completed just before Covid. I knew then that not 100% of the remodel costs would be reflected in increased value of the house. Since we have no plans to sell I wasn't worried about it. However, if we did sell now we would likely get back most everything, perhaps more. Lots and lots of houses are going over asking price.

I am not really sure this is really a bubble. Maybe a bit of one. But the area is one where there are a lot of people moving in. The suburbs are expanding out farther and farther. On another forum, someone indicated they wanted to live in this area but be far enough out that the "city" wouldn't expand to them. The general response that no such area existed. There is nothing to keep this area just continuing to expand (well, except super long commute times). We live in a close in area that has great homes and wonderful amenities. I don't think this area will ever become unpopular simply because of the desirability of the location. People are now buying homes way on the outskirts so they can get something affordable. As the do that the homes closer in go up and up in price because people will pay for the location. I don't see that demand for a great location changing. So I expect to see prices continuing to go up.

That said, they have gone up way more in the past year especially than I expected. I doubt that the current rate of increase will continue. And, sure for a short period of time I could see them coming down, but the location is such in this area and the demand is so high I think everything keeps going up even if at a lower rate.

 

[bobbyr]

I relate to the poster(s) who said they are happy where they are and not looking. I too feel for young folks who are trying to buy a house and other who are having to move due to job or some other reason.

I have a yearning for my days of youth when people didn't move as much and the neighborhoods were more stable. Maybe my youth leads me to believe that was the case, dunno. I do know we LOVE our current neighbors and feel very fortunate. That has more value than a cash out for me/us.

 

[Paulz]

We just sold and made $400k from when we bought. Our "win" for us wasn't what we gained over our basis, its that the home inspection was waived. We knew we were within 18-24 months of needing a new roof, replacing two HVAC systems, plus a host of other major repairs that would total ~$80k. We would have sold anyway in two years, but the frenzy that has people waiving things such as inspections worked out well for us.

We're renting for two years and then will move down to our retirement home.

 

[stephenson]

Paulz,

Exactly - my sister selling rental house now with same goal in mind.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

Here in Illinois, State Farm allows and encourages us to sit down with the agent and calculate what it would actually cost to rebuild after a total loss. Sure, they make more money (premiums) if we select a higher value, but it's optional to do that. They have an automatic inflation adjuster built in to the rebuild cost, sometimes it has had us over insured and sometimes like now, under insured. But we get to pick any reasonable number.

I have us intentional underinsured for replacement value on the insurance books and I self insure the difference. I save on premiums and also on deductibles that are a percentage of total insured value. I would swag that im about 25pct and they are about 75pct so they have more skin in the game than I do. Im cool with that. If catastrophe hits im prepared to pony up my part. They made me acknowledge that im underinsuring per their algorithm. I wish they would acknowledge they are overcharging per the market. But I like them BC when rubber hits road they pay out no hassle. Roof approved and planned for fall installation. 60k on them. USAA FWIW.

 

[harley]

I have us intentional underinsured for replacement value on the insurance books and I self insure the difference. I save on premiums and also on deductibles that are a percentage of total insured value. I would swag that im about 25pct and they are about 75pct so they have more skin in the game than I do. Im cool with that. If catastrophe hits im prepared to pony up my part. They made me acknowledge that im underinsuring per their algorithm. I wish they would acknowledge they are overcharging per the market. But I like them BC when rubber hits road they pay out no hassle. Roof approved and planned for fall installation. 60k on them. USAA FWIW.

Just out of curiosity, how much do you save by underinsuring? Whenever I've looked into doing something like that, or even raising my deductibles, the total dollars saved amount to spillage. I've read about people doing this sort of thing, but it's never been worth it to me for the minimal savings that I would have.

 

[SecondCor521]

I have us intentional underinsured for replacement value on the insurance books and I self insure the difference. I save on premiums and also on deductibles that are a percentage of total insured value. I would swag that im about 25pct and they are about 75pct so they have more skin in the game than I do. Im cool with that. If catastrophe hits im prepared to pony up my part. They made me acknowledge that im underinsuring per their algorithm. I wish they would acknowledge they are overcharging per the market. But I like them BC when rubber hits road they pay out no hassle. Roof approved and planned for fall installation. 60k on them. USAA FWIW.

I'm with USAA and am intentionally somewhat underinsured - say 10%. I thought they told me at one point that if I became too underinsured that they had some out where they wouldn't pay at all.

My thinking is my house is extraordinarily unlikely to suffer a total loss, so really all I want them to cover is the scenario where the kitchen burns down and it's a $50K or $100K cost. I'd like them to cover all of that subject to deductible, but even if they covered in proportion to my underinsurance rate - say they cover 90% and I cover 10% - that would be OK.

I'm not really concerned at all about a total loss, which would be more in the low- to mid-six figure range for my house. I just can't see that happening.

I'm not sure how much is too much, but I got the impression that if I was 25% under or so, they might say, "Hey, you deliberately underinsured, so that $50K to $100K kitchen replacement is 100% on you."

 

[REWahoo]

I'm also with USAA and understand I need to insure the house for a minimum of 80% of the replacement value. That figure seems to be a common industry amount:

Most policies require that you insure your home to at least 80% of the amount of rebuilding cost in order to get a replacement cost settlement. If you are insured for less than that at the time of loss, you may receive an actual cash value settlement — which factors in depreciation related to the property’s age and condition — or be required to pay a proportionate share of the loss.

https://pcs.marsh.com/us/insights/t...ring-your-home-to-full-replacement-value.html

 

[Retired Expat]

But there is not a “bubble”/FOMO/unusually accelerated increase in price, is there?

Eagerly awaiting the usual suspects to show up and explain how this is “the new normal”.

I hope their domestic unit is in agreement as they invest in this real estate market right now. Going to be ugly on the home front if not and it goes sideways.

I think it is a bubble but don’t think it will pop. Instead I think we will see a slow leak with prices leveling out and correcting
Down 10-15%. I these prices are unsustainable once construction picks up. But clearly some markets will see more growth and sustained high prices. We are seeing a real reluctance of office workers and executives to go back to long commutes and 60 hours a week in the office. People are calling me asking me to fill jobs and I am well retired and they all know I live part year out of the country. But companies are a bit desperate. So a bigger better home where I can go in to the city only as needs be will be the new thing.

 

[RobbieB]

Construction will pick up as covid declines. Everything will pick up as covid declines.

 

[hpnutty]

Mortgage applications starting to slow

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted market index fell 1.8% in the week ending on July 2 from a week earlier, leaving it at to the lowest level since January 2020. This reflected a 2.3% decrease in applications to refinance existing loans and a 1.1% drop in applications to purchase a home.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-mortgage-application-volumes-lowest-since-early-2020-mba-2021-07-07/

Maybe the slow down is coming...

 

[RetiredHappy]

We have definitely seen a slowdown this past month where we live. 2 homes within my development that are priced reasonably and one has been sitting there for 35 days and the other 16 days.

 

[Chuckanut]

I find that geography often dictates housing. What a surprise! In my area there is little vacant buildable land near the big city. A lot of the land is preserved in National Forests, state and local parks, and and protected wetlands that can't be built on. Some is zoned agricultural under some pretty strict guidelines.

The only way to expand the supply of housing is to knock down old houses an big lots and build two or three houses where one used to be. Or, build apartments, condominiums and other high density housing on several lots that used to hold four or five houses. Either way it's expensive (the land, not the houses). And then there are assorted building codes that get in the way of lower cost housing. Some are necesary, such as earthquake codes. Others are symbolism over substance such as a requirement to have a geothermal heat storage system on some low income housing built a few years ago. Lately, some local politicians want to forbid new gas hookups and go to all electric, another higher ongoing expense for the buyer. We're not even sure where the additional electric power will come from.

Some states, like Nevada, have plenty of open land near existing cities and they can just build out. That assumes water will be available for the new houses and their residents. Nothing is simple these days.

 

[Toocold]

In my area, I am seeing more homes for sale, so I think prices will stabilize. I'm not sure if it will drop but it's unlikely that it will continue to go up at the pace it has been.

I'm grateful that I purchased several rental properties and the value has been going up.

 

[steelyman]

A few members in NC have commented on the RE market. CNBC posted this video about it, specifically about the effect of the Apple expansion into the Research Triangle.

Apple building $1 billion campus near Raleigh, North Carolina https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/...llion-campus-near-raleigh-north-carolina.html

 

[MichealKnight]

NC

A few members in NC have commented on the RE market. CNBC posted this video about it, specifically about the effect of the Apple expansion into the Research Triangle.

Apple building $1 billion campus near Raleigh, North Carolina https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/...llion-campus-near-raleigh-north-carolina.html

I've looked at Raleigh Metro since 2006 when I visited Cary and true to form, I felt I missed all the upside and didn't make a move. Of course, true to form - I was wrong and there was tons more to be had.

The current froth aside...I just feel it's still a fact that not only will educated young professionals keep moving to that area, BUT - with that, comes lower skilled workers, 1st generation migrant workers who will come also because their echelon will serve the upscale.

Any guesses on what lesser developed parts surrounding the RTP will one day come more alive? I'd appreciate any local observation you have.

Many of my years were owning a business in a place called Woodbridge, VA- suburb of DC. in 2000- Woodbridge was pawn shops, 7-11, etc. We sort of were one of the armpits of Northern Virginia. TODAY -- yeah, some of that element is still there but when I visit - I also see a new Wegman's, an Apple Store, and all that kind of stuff. LOL I still laugh when I say 'Apple of Woodbridge'.

My point - lesser developed areas around a boomtown eventually get developed and I'm trying to ascertain where in NC that will be....

 

[Chuckanut]

Interesting interview today with a well regarded police chief in a neighboring city. The chief is taking a new job as a chief of police in a city located in the so-called fly over country.

The main reason: None of his three kids (even the married one with two incomes in the household) can afford to buy a house here.

 

[FlaGator]

Interesting interview today with a well regarded police chief in a neighboring city. The chief is taking a new job as a chief of police in a city located in the so-called fly over country.

The main reason: None of his three kids (even the married one with two incomes in the household) can afford to buy a house here.

Move on, nothing to see here......

Meanwhile, a house nearby that sold for $1.25 million in 2005 is on the market after substantial upgrades. The buyer that paid that tried to sell it during 2015-2016 at ever decreasing prices before finally selling at $739,000 in 2016. The buyer that paid $739,000 just sold it for about what the seller paid in 2005.

In my subdivision, a house that sold in early 2017 for $201/sq. ft. is now on the market for $486/sq. ft., and they'll probably get that, or close to it.

If there was anywhere else I wanted to go, I'd bail now.

I'm not in the Bay area or Seattle with tech company millionaires being minted from stock options/grants everyday. Most of the purchases appear to be from out-of-state buyers fleeing high crime areas. Have to wonder how long that is going to last, and what the aftermath will be when that play runs out.

 

[Out of Steam]

We have definitely seen a slowdown this past month where we live. 2 homes within my development that are priced reasonably and one has been sitting there for 35 days and the other 16 days.

There are houses for sale on the blocks at each side of ours. Even though prices seem reasonable, both have been for sale for a couple of weeks without contracts.

It's likely because it's too hot to look at houses during midsummer in Virginia, but still interesting to note.

 

[steelyman]

I've looked at Raleigh Metro since 2006 when I visited Cary and true to form, I felt I missed all the upside and didn't make a move. Of course, true to form - I was wrong [emoji4] and there was tons more to be had.

[…]

Any guesses on what lesser developed parts surrounding the RTP will one day come more alive? I'd appreciate any local observation you have.

You might get a better guess from other members who are longer term Tar Heels than I. I’m a transplant from the midwest who moved in mid-2015 (I’m an Illini).

I waited a while to buy a home and made the leap just this spring. Bought a home I’d been renting when the former owners (physicians now in another state) decided they’d had enough of landlording. It was lucky: we went under contract just as Apple made their expansion announcement (in April). Prices have zoomed due to a combo of Covid, mortgage rates & Apple/RTP (not sure which had greatest effect).

I live a little west of RTP but an easy commute (which I no longer do!). The area is expanding for sure, Pittsboro comes to mind and is closest.

 

[RunningBum]

My son finally got an offer to buy a house accepted, after not getting 2 other houses. He wasn't too aggressive in his other offers, but this house was a really good fit for him and the asking price was pretty reasonable, so he went 10% over. Apparently they had 12 offers, and took his. Hopefully no surprises on the inspection. I'm really happy for him. He's more than ready to get out of apartment life.

 

[ivinsfan]

My son finally got an offer to buy a house accepted, after not getting 2 other houses. He wasn't too aggressive in his other offers, but this house was a really good fit for him and the asking price was pretty reasonable, so he went 10% over. Apparently they had 12 offers, and took his. Hopefully no surprises on the inspection. I'm really happy for him. He's more than ready to get out of apartment life.

Fingers crossed for your boy, glad he waited until he found something he really wanted.