Real Estate Bubble?

[stephenson]

In Colorado Springs this week.

$1M plus houses that were $500k two years ago … large neighborhoods of 1.5-3M houses …

Who is buying?

Bubble? I now think so.

[braumeister]

MOD NOTE:

Please don't post naked links.

Our Community Rules are clear on this.

[doneat54]

[mod-edit]
Here is an article from CNN about the real estate bubble (or lack thereof). It makes the point that "The other key difference is that banks, home buyers and regulators appear to have learned a painful lesson about the pitfalls of overborrowing."

Additionally, "today's supply situation is the opposite of the glut in building 15 years ago: Back then, there was a massive overbuilding problem. At the peak, around 2 million homes were being built per year, compared with just 1.6 million today."

[Badger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlaGator In my subdivision, a house that sold in early 2017 for $201/sq. ft. is now on the market for $486/sq. ft., and they'll probably get that, or close to it. If there was anywhere else I wanted to go, I'd bail now.

My house in Florida I am presently in I bought in 1983 for $34/sq. ft. It is now appraised for $751/sq. ft. I won't sell because the cost to buy another house, deal with 3-4 times the taxes, and deal with the cost of moving even in the same town is not worth the trouble.


"You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done"


Cheers!

[Katsmeow]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 38Chevy454 Or the buyers start to decrease. Seems at some point all the people moving up in a house will level off. Once the balance of buyers and sellers is more even it will reduce the price increase pressure that has been in place with current more buyers than sellers.

While it is the case that an imbalance will often eventually get corrected, that doesn't work in areas where this is a lot of in migration to the area. Where I am, it is often not people moving up in house. It is people moving into the area. There are more of them than there are people moving out. And, for those moving into the area, better locations are more highly prized.

[schenbew]

Bill McBride just posted on his Calculated Risk blog concerning builder views on the new home market. The 3 takeaways:

1) Frenzy phase for housing is over, but still solid demand.

2) Fewer builders restricting sales.

3) Hitting price ceilings in more markets.

Individual builder comments are very interesting.

[snowboarder]

Look up the channel: Reventure Consulting on youtube. This guy uses real data analysis and statistics to show that we are in fact in a bubble. Yes it's not 2008 again, we all get that, but there are a lot of unprecedented things going like people buying without looking at the property, waiving of inspections and appraisals, paying "cash" (Look up a company called Orchard Funding). In addition there were mortgage and eviction moratoriums. Again unprecedented stuff.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowboarder Look up the channel: Reventure Consulting on youtube. This guy uses real data analysis and statistics to show that we are in fact in a bubble. Yes it's not 2008 again, we all get that, but there are a lot of unprecedented things going like people buying without looking at the property, waiving of inspections and appraisals, paying "cash" (Look up a company called Orchard Funding). In addition there were mortgage and eviction moratoriums. Again unprecedented stuff.

If it just slows down without any 2008 style crash, that works for me.

[Jerry1]

Read an article today discussing the real estate market and how the tide has turned. Basically said that inventory was starting to increase and that price hesitation is creating into the market. Never mentioned a burst of any bubble but seems like the market has topped out for now. My opinion is that we’re not in a bubble. That we had a massive change in people’s life situation and as that settles, we’re likely going to see it hit a plateau and go stagnant for awhile in terms of prices. I’m also of the opinion that sales will slow down but also not bust.

[Golden sunsets]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jerry1 Read an article today discussing the real estate market and how the tide has turned. Basically said that inventory was starting to increase and that price hesitation is creating into the market. Never mentioned a burst of any bubble but seems like the market has topped out for now. My opinion is that we’re not in a bubble. That we had a massive change in people’s life situation and as that settles, we’re likely going to see it hit a plateau and go stagnant for awhile in terms of prices. I’m also of the opinion that sales will slow down but also not bust.

I think this very much depends on geographic location. I don't see these trends you mention in our area.

[Hyper]

For our rural state, I believe our high sales are primarily pandemic driven by lock down/crime escapees. Our state economy has been devastated and will continue to be under this administration so our outlook is not good so no other real good reason to move here unless your already retired. With lock downs again looming elsewhere, I believe our sale prices will stay high for a while longer.

[ShokWaveRider]

If it is true what is being reported about Californians leaving for other states like Texas, Arizona etc. Why are California prices still in the stratosphere. Just asking.

[Willers]

Just sold our house for what I consider to be an insane price. We're starting to look for a new one and our competition (buyers) here in our part of Colorado appears to be mainly coming from Austin, SF, LA and NY.

Hope it cools a bit so we don't get hammered quite as badly on the buy side. We're downsizing by 50% so that will help. The good sign is that houses with crazy prices per sq. ft. are finally sitting. One "collecting offers" house sold for $100K below asking so the frenzy may be subsiding. Inexpensive homes (defined in our very expensive town as <1.2M for SFH's) still going within 2 days, regardless of condition.

[ShokWaveRider]

Problem, is if one sells high in one state, then moved to another state, the RE Tax bill becomes quite high. Tax portability is usually only in State. States do not seem to adjust their tax basis based on market trends, if anything it is the reverse. How can it be sustainable. Other countries that base RE taxes on things other than home sale prices are a lot better in my opinion and keeps things fairer.

[jkern]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider If it is true what is being reported about Californians leaving for other states like Texas, Arizona etc. Why are California prices still in the stratosphere. Just asking.

I believe it's because of immigration, specifically from China and India. The demand is still high even with long term residents moving out.

[mrstop]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider If it is true what is being reported about Californians leaving for other states like Texas, Arizona etc. Why are California prices still in the stratosphere. Just asking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jkern I believe it's because of immigration, specifically from China and India. The demand is still high even with long term residents moving out.

It's been years since I have looked at the housing demographics of California. If I recall correctly, there is a disproportionately high number of renters. While there may be a net migration out of California, it's possible that renters are turning into home buyers to fill the void.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider Problem, is if one sells high in one state, then moved to another state, the RE Tax bill becomes quite high. Tax portability is usually only in State. States do not seem to adjust their tax basis based on market trends, if anything it is the reverse. How can it be sustainable. Other countries that base RE taxes on things other than home sale prices are a lot better in my opinion and keeps things fairer.

It depends on the state and how they provide property tax relief to homeowners.

In states like CA and FL you can indeed have identical homes next door to each other paying very different property taxes because one owner has been there a long time and the other just bought recently. I personally think that is a bit of a crazy approach to property tax relief, especially since the differences can be very extreme.

In Vermont, if you had identical homes next door to each other the assessed values would be the same as would the property tax bills (assuming that both were homestead). Property tax relief is based on household income (rather than how long you have lived there) so if the neighbors had identical household incomes then the property tax credits would be the same.

If the neighbors didn't have identical incomes, the new neighbor could have a lower net property tax bill if their income was lower than their neighbor who had owned their house for a long time.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski It depends on the state and how they provide property tax relief to homeowners. In states like CA and FL you can indeed have identical homes next door to each other paying very different property taxes because one owner has been there a long time and the other just bought recently. I personally think that is a bit of a crazy approach to property tax relief, especially since the differences can be very extreme. In Vermont, if you had identical homes next door to each other the assessed values would be the same as would the property tax bills (assuming that both were homestead). Property tax relief is based on household income (rather than how long you have lived there) so if the neighbors had identical household incomes then the property tax credits would be the same. If the neighbors didn't have identical incomes, the new neighbor could have a lower net property tax bill if their income was lower than their neighbor who had owned their house for a long time.

Yep bought our home in 2019 and are paying 2k more in property taxes than some friends with similar houses bought in 2006.
At least the yearly tax increase can only be a maximum of 3%.

[retire to nature]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider If it is true what is being reported about Californians leaving for other states like Texas, Arizona etc. Why are California prices still in the stratosphere. Just asking.

i believe so many fires and loss of house are affecting.

[MichaelB]

Over the past decade only 3 states have seen a decline in population, Illinois (-.01%), Mississippi (-.02%) and West Virginia (-3.2%). The rest have all seen population growth, according to the US Census (here)

There is undoubtedly lots of dynamics in those numbers, with younger people moving to the high income / high cost of living states as retirees leave, looking for a lower cost of living retirement. The driving factor for such high real estate prices in New York and California is working age population has increased while housing has not. In those areas there isn’t enough housing, not enough new residences are built, and new housing favors single family units when high-rise and multi-family units are clearly a more compelling need.