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02-23-2018, 06:07 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Wilmette
Posts: 61
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Real estate market
Hi, my wife and I are looking at houses in Tetonia ID.
We are worried that the property market is at a peak right now and prices may drop as interest rates rise.
On the other hand the age wave means that more and more baby boomers are retiring and this will steadily drive prices up (even if there is a dip) for 20 years.
Also there seems to be a building shortage right now that is also holding prices up.
While I know that each local market is unique are there any folks with Real Estate expertise that can share a perspective?
Thanks
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02-23-2018, 06:21 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,228
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Nine days ago you were trying to decide between UT and WY. Now ID is in the mix? I know this is close to Jackson, but I thought the advice to try a year of renting in each place was good. Prices may go up, but so could your invested money, and you'll be more certain about picking the right place.
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02-23-2018, 06:24 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 2,522
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Why would baby boomers retiring drive prices up? I would have thought that retiring baby boomers would downsize creating excess inventory in larger homes.
__________________
"Luck favors the prepared mind"
Pasteur
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02-23-2018, 06:34 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets
Why would baby boomers retiring drive prices up? I would have thought that retiring baby boomers would downsize creating excess inventory in larger homes.
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+1
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TGIM
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02-23-2018, 06:43 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
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Why are you so concerned about the value of your residence?
Treat it as a home, not an investment.
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02-23-2018, 06:47 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Wilmette
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum
Nine days ago you were trying to decide between UT and WY. Now ID is in the mix? I know this is close to Jackson, but I thought the advice to try a year of renting in each place was good. Prices may go up, but so could your invested money, and you'll be more certain about picking the right place.
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Haha, Well this is in the Jackson area, just the other side of the Tetons. The houses are more affordable here.
We are actually driving out to Utah where we have rented a house for the month of March but we are stopping in the Jackson area along the way to look at houses.
Glad to see you are paying attention
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02-23-2018, 06:49 AM
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#7
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Wilmette
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh
Why are you so concerned about the value of your residence?
Treat it as a home, not an investment.
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Fair point. I guess it would mentally hurt to buy a place and watch it drop 20% but hey wait a while and it always comes back up. Was just looking for perspective.
Thanks for yours.
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02-23-2018, 06:50 AM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Wilmette
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets
Why would baby boomers retiring drive prices up? I would have thought that retiring baby boomers would downsize creating excess inventory in larger homes.
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Because all of the places we are looking are places where baby boomers would move to after they sell their home.
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02-23-2018, 08:07 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlingmossy
I guess it would mentally hurt to buy a place and watch it drop 20%.
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As a mental exercise, ask yourself why this would bother you.
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02-23-2018, 08:12 AM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Wilmette
Posts: 61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh
As a mental exercise, ask yourself why this would bother you.
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Say I paid $500,000 for a place and it dropped 20% I would feel like I had “lost” $100k. I would kick myself for bad timing.
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02-23-2018, 08:14 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sterlingmossy
Say I paid $500,000 for a place and it dropped 20% I would feel like I had “lost” $100k. I would kick myself for bad timing.
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Understood, but assuming you weren't selling the home, why would the paper loss bother you?
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02-23-2018, 08:18 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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There are always deals to be had. Pay full price or look for a deal.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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02-23-2018, 08:22 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfeh
Understood, but assuming you weren't selling the home, why would the paper loss bother you?
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Why are you assuming they'll never sell their home? I'd guess that most people who move to a resort area, especially a cold weather one, move again when they get too old to enjoy winter sports, and being near good medical facilities becomes more of a priority.
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02-23-2018, 09:39 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunningBum
Why are you assuming they'll never sell their home?
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I didn't say never.
The OP seems to be concerned about short term valuation changes. If they're gonna be staying there for <5 years, they shouldn't be buying in the first place. If they're gonna stay for 15-20 years, changes in valuations should not be a concern.
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02-23-2018, 09:43 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2007
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I recently struggled with this when we bought a house. Prices here in greater Portlandia have been rising rapidly and I'd hoped we'd hit a minor recession while we rented for a year. But it didn't happen. So, do I spend another year of my finite lifetime living in a rental that I don't enjoy or buy a house that DW and I can enjoy as our own?
For me, it all comes down to how much longer you expect to be active (and alive) and how much money you have to spend over that period.
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02-23-2018, 09:59 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,228
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You want to buy for the best price whether it's an investment or not. Doesn't matter how long you hold it; if you can buy it for $100K less in a year, that's $100K you can invest elsewhere.
The problem, as travelover points out, is that it's really hard to predict the housing market. What seems overpriced to you may not matter, especially if California transplants are still moving in. Prices could continue to soar in the next year, which means you will be paying more, and be even more exposed to a downturn.
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02-23-2018, 10:03 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,374
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OP may want to look at the NYT rent vs buy tool to see if it is even preferable to buy. If buy is the decision, then view it as buying a place to live rather than an investment.
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Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
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02-23-2018, 10:06 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets
Why would baby boomers retiring drive prices up? I would have thought that retiring baby boomers would downsize creating excess inventory in larger homes.
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Not to say that this statement is wrong, but I would like to point out that I know a whole lotta BB's that have done the opposite...they have bought larger, more expensive homes. It makes no sense to me, but to each their own!
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FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
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02-23-2018, 10:14 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
OP may want to look at the NYT rent vs buy tool to see if it is even preferable to buy. If buy is the decision, then view it as buying a place to live rather than an investment.
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These rent vs. buy decisions only account for buying or renting the same house.
Renting is virtually ALWAYS better than renting if you maximize the renting experience. Rent what you need, where you need it, when you need it.
If you rent like a buyer, it is virtually ALWAYS better to buy. Renting for a long time, in a place you cannot minimize your commute, and renting more house than you need.
Renting a home vs. an apartment is a huge difference.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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02-23-2018, 10:38 AM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden sunsets
Why would baby boomers retiring drive prices up? I would have thought that retiring baby boomers would downsize creating excess inventory in larger homes.
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Anecdotal, I know ... but that's what we did. Went from a gorgeous 3500 sq ft house, 3 acres, pool, etc to a brand spanking new 2100 sq footer in a suburban neighborhood with an easygoing HOA (lets me keep my boat & other toys in the back yard) Also going from the big house in Texas to this house in Florida dropped our property taxes from $7800 to $1650 per year. Insurance didn't change much but it's Flori-duh and that's kind of " a thing" here .... ( we're about 20 miles from the Gulf, could have bought closer, but there's issues/expenses involved with living to close to the water too I didn't want to deal with anymore. )
Quote:
Originally Posted by ExFlyBoy5
Not to say that this statement is wrong, but I would like to point out that I know a whole lotta BB's that have done the opposite...they have bought larger, more expensive homes. It makes no sense to me, but to each their own!
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On the other hand ..... my sister in law & her husband retired from the Federal Govt last year (her & SES & him a GS-14) and, having transferred around ever few years their entire careers never had the opportunity to have a house they just loved. Upon retiring they bought a half-million dollar house north of Dallas somewhere between 4000 and 5000 sq ft. So I guess it just depends.
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